Friday, September 2, 2022

The Morning Call---The impossible position of the Fed

 

The Morning Call

 

9/2/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/good-news-sparks-september-slump-stocks-bonds

 

            Lack of momentum is a problem.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/massive-momentum-structure-stock-market-breaking-down

 

            Expect erratic markets near term.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cnjd58zhq4

           

            Will the dollar strength continue?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dollar-index-surges-above-covid-panic-highs-gold-back-below-1700

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          July construction spending fell 0.4%, in line.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/09/construction-spending-decreased-04-in.html

 

                          The August manufacturing PMI came in at 51.5 versus projections of 51.3.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/09/01/july-s-p-global-us-manufacturing-pmitm-lowest-since-7-2020

 

The August ISM manufacturing index was reported at 52.8 versus consensus of 52.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/09/01/ism-manufacturing-index-unchanged-in-august

 

August nonfarm payrolls rose 315,000 versus expectations of 300,000; the unemployment rate was 3.7% versus 3.5%.

 

 

                        International

 

The July German trade balance was +E4.9 billion versus estimates of +E6.2 billion.

 

July EU PPI was +4.0% versus predictions of +2.5%.                    

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/09/median-household-income-in-july-2022.html#.YxDHU3bMKUk

 

            The Fed

 

              Commodity prices are suggesting that the Fed (money) is tight.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2022/08/commodities-say-fed-is-pretty-tight.html

 

              The importance of QT.

              https://www.ft.com/content/4a9c0365-7389-44f0-bbb5-126e4d360ca8

 

              The cavalry ain’t comin’.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/memo-wall-street-monetary-cavalry-aint-coming

 

              But will it?  The impossible position of the Fed (must read).

             https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/straw-breaks-markets-back-fed-must-do-39-trillion-qt-control-inflation-which-it-cant

 

            Inflation

 

              Inflation tightens its grip on Europe.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/31/business/eurozone-inflation.html

 

     Bottom linie

 

              The importance of the entry price.

              https://verdadcap.com/archive/the-size-factor

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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