The Morning Call---AT LEAST 75 bp

 

The Morning Call

 

9/14/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-turmoils-soaring-cpi-hammers-soft-landing-hope

 

Note: I probably don’t need to say this but (1) the challenge of the very short term downtrend was unsuccessful, (2) the 100 DMA remains resistance, (3) the two gap up opens have been filled [though we now have a huge gap down open], and (4) next support is at ~3817.

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications declined 1.2% while purchase applications rose 0.2%.

 

The August budget deficit was $220 billion versus projections of $213  billion.

 

                          August PPI was -0.1%, in line; core PPI was +0.4% versus +0.3%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/core-producer-prices-hotter-expected-august-services-cost-rise

 

                        International

 

                          July Japanese machinery orders were up 5.3% versus consensus of -0.8%.

 

July EU industrial production was down 2.3% versus expectations of -1.0%.

 

August UK CPI rose 0.5% versus expectations of +0.6%: core CPI was +0.8%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          US/China trade picks up in July.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/09/us-china-trade-grows-faster-in-july-2022.html#.YyC_CHbMKUk

 

            The Fed

 

              Fed whisperer says September rate hike will be AT LEAST 75bp.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-mouthpiece-speaks-least-75bps-next-week-sends-odds-100bps-rate-hike-47

 

              Get rid of the Fed ‘put’.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3636093-is-the-global-economy-entering-an-era-of-great-volatility/

 

How many times have I said that the Fed has never, ever successfully transitioned from easy to normal monetary policy?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ny-fed-guru-says-powell-will-overdo-it-and-cause-recession

 

            Inflation

 

              Inflation and the US labor market.

              https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/the-us-labor-market-and-inflation?utm_source=substack

 

              Another brilliant move---putting a floor under oil prices.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/biden-admin-reportedly-ready-refill-strategic-petroelum-reserve

 

            Recession

 

              Sixty-three percent of small businesses have frozen hiring.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/63-small-businesses-have-put-hiring-hold

 

     Bottom line

 

            More on valuation.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/09/13/p-e10-august-2022-update

 

            The latest BofA investor survey.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-13/bofa-survey-shows-nadir-in-stock-allocations-amid-recession-fear?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) said its board has authorized to buy back up to $5B worth of common stock.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

            The royal monetary equilibrium

            https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/09/the-royal-monetary-equilibrium.html

 

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