The Morning Call---Note to Fed: you are not good at this

 

The Morning Call

 

9/29/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-stocks-bitcoin-bullion-soar-after-brits-save-world

 

            Less than 10% of NASDAQ stocks are above their 200 DMA.

            https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/09/27/washout/

 

            Short squeeze.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-short-squeeze-coming

 

            Extreme volatility is disrupting the US Treasuries market.

            https://www.ft.com/content/ea41ce6d-e8b2-465e-8dff-8b7fa71dc7b4

 

            Crashing liquidity and exploding volatility in the bond market.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/worstmarkets

 

            2022 bond carnage.

            https://quantifiableedges.com/some-views-of-the-2022-bond-carnage/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          August pending home sales were down 2.0% versus consensus of -0.5%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/09/28/pending-home-sales-waned-in-august

 

                        International

 

                          September EU economic sentiment was 93.7 versus estimates of 95.0;

September industrial sentiment was -0.4 versus -1.0; September services    sentiment was 4.9 versus 7.0; September consumer confidence was -28.8, in line.

 

Preliminary September German CPI was 1.9% versus predictions of 1.3%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Inside the recent new home sales data.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/09/us-new-homes-market-cap-peaks-in-july.html#.YzRfTnbMKUk

 

                          The latest Q3 nowcast.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/09/q3-growth-vs-revisions

 

                          The Chinese yuan continues to drop against the dollar.

                          https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63056680

 

            The Fed

 

              Is the Fed making a(nother) mistake?

              https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/two-spooky-charts/

 

              Note to FOMC: you are not good at this (must read).

              https://thereformedbroker.com/2022/09/23/youre-not-good-at-this/

 

              A similar opinion from Mohamed El Erian but delivered a bit more politely.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/el-erian-cost-feds-challenged-credibility

 

              In the spirit of ‘piling on’ here is Stanley Druckenmiller’s two cents.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/druckenmiller-we-are-deep-trouble-i-dont-rule-out-something-really-bad-happening-next

 

              The Bank of England just bailed out the big banks once again.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-boes-panic-billions-margin-calls-death-spiraling-complete-bond-market-collapse

 

            Inflation

 

              The argument for declining inflation (must read).

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2022/09/everythings-down-except-inflation.html

 

              The pace of rent increases continues to slow.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/09/pace-of-rent-increases-continues-to-slow.html

 

              Lumber prices fall back to pre-covid levels.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/lumber-prices-fall-back-to-around-their-pre-covid-levels-11664239652

 

              Recession

 

                Larry Summers thinks a hard landing is ‘substantially’ more likely.

               https://www.wsj.com/video/larry-summers-says-hard-landing-ubstantially-more-likely/4725F18B-A0BC-464F-920F-FD6F98FCA4AA.html

 

 

     Bottom line

 

            Stocks still are not cheap.

            https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1115121/have-stocks-become-cheap

 

            Farewell, TINA.

            https://ritholtz.com/2022/09/farewell-tina/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Paychex press release (NASDAQ:PAYX): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.03 beats by $0.06.

Revenue of $1.21B (+12.0% Y/Y) beats by $40M.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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