The Morning Call--A textbook late cycle Market

 

The Morning Call

 

11/6/20

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/qe-hope-sparks-big-tech-bitcoin-bullion-bid-smart-money-dumping

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

October nonfarm payrolls rose 638,000 versus projections of +600,000; the unemployment rate was 6.9% versus 7.7%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-unemployment-rate-unexpectedly-tumbles-below-7-october-payrolls-beat-expectations

 

                        International

 

September Japanese household spending was up 3.8% versus forecasts of up 2.2%.

 

September German industrial production increased 1.6% versus expectations of up 2.7%.

 

                        Other

 

            Gridlock

 

              The Market draws comfort from gridlock.

              https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/stock-futures-jump-as-potential-washington-gridlock-signals-less-regulatory-risk-idUSKBN27L0XK

                 

              Wall Street warms to divided government.

               https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/business/stock-market-election-trump-biden.html

 

            The Fed

 

The FOMC meeting ended today with the normal release of a Fed policy statement.  Bottom line: the Committee changed seven words from the prior statement.  Meaning (1) it likely did not want to say anything noteworthy as long as the election still hangs in the balance and (2) the policy statement already promised QEInfinityForever; so, there was not much to add to that.  Here is the statement:

              http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2020/11/todays-fed-statement-36.html

 

              The reflation trade is back on.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-soars-above-15000-markets-price-much-more-qe-gold-surges

 

            China

 

              US/China trade growth signals recovery.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2020/11/us-china-trade-growth-signals.html#.X6RNdIhKiM8

 

              Soybean prices hit high as China demand picks up.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/soybean-prices-hit-four-year-high-china-demand-ticks-higher

 

            Bottom line.  A textbook example of a late cycle Market.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/textbook-definition-late-cycle-stock-market

 

              More on valuation.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/11/05/is-the-market-still-overvalued

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

CVS Health: Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.66 beats by $0.32; GAAP EPS of $0.93 beats by $0.01.

Revenue of $67.1B (+3.5% Y/Y) beats by $560M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Tourists will soon be able to visit the Titanic for a cool $125,000.

            https://gizmodo.com/tourists-will-soon-be-able-to-visit-the-titanic-wreck-f-1845581670

 

            Tips to boost your immune system this winter.

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-some-tips-to-boost-your-immune-system-this-winter-11603485141

 

 

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