The Morning Call
11/19/20
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-dollar-drop-vaccine-pop-flops
The Averages fell
back below their former all-time highs, thus failing to confirm the break above
those levels. The question before us is
whether this signifies the possible development of a triple (quadruple?) top or
just part of the struggle to surmount a major resistance level. As always, follow through remains important
but is even more so in the current circumstance, given they are at a critical
technical level. Bonds, the dollar and
gold remain unimpressed with the volatility in equities.
Ugly 20 year
Treasury auction pushes yields higher.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ugly-tailing-20y-auction-pushes-treasury-yields-session-high
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly jobless claims rose 742,000 versus
estimates of 707,000.
The November
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at 26.3 versus consensus of 22.0
International
Other
Architecture billings stalled in October.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/11/aia-architecture-billings-remained.html
From my favorite optimist, but not very
convincing: More signs of a ‘V’ economy.
http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2020/11/more-v-shaped-signs.html
Latest Q4 nowcast.
http://www.capitalspectator.com/relatively-moderate-growth-expected-for-us-gdp-in-q4/
The
Fed
Dear Mr. Powell, low rates do not benefit the
poor.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dear-fed-stop-lying-low-rates-benefit-poor-people
The
coronavirus
***overnight update.
Lockdown lunacy.
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/526341-the-return-of-lockdown-lunacy
Mask this.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/11/mask-this.php
Many companies that got PPP loans have gone
bankrupt.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hundreds-companies-got-ppp-loans-have-gone-bankrupt
Can mouthwash kill the coronavirus?
https://dailycaller.com/2020/11/17/mouthwash-listerine-kills-coronavirus-laboratory-study/
Bottom
line. Despite the technical turmoil around the
Averages all-time highs, as JP Morgan points out, QE is still alive and
well. I continue to believe that this
factor will keep the Market’s bias to the upside, at least in the long term.
JP Morgan sees equities spiking in 2021 on liquidity surge.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpm-sees-stock-surge-2021-trillions-unlocked-liqudity-flood-market
In the meantime, Goldman
sees $35 billion in selling as pension funds rebalance at month end.
An easier to use CAPE model.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
What about tackling the causes
of high student loan debt?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/18/upshot/student-debt-forgiveness-biden.html
How business cycles are dated.
https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating
What it would take for Trump to win
(it’s a lot).
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
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