The Morning Call
11/4/20
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-surge-signals-trump-win-dollar-dives-gold-thrives
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications were up 3.8% but purchase applications were down 1.3%.
Month to date retail chain store sales grew
faster than in the prior week.
September factory
orders rose 1.1% versus estimates of 1.0%; ex transportation, there were up
0.5% versus 1.0%.
The September
trade balance was -$63.9 billion versus expectations of -$63.8 billion.
The October ADP
private payroll report showed job increases of 365,000 versus predictions of
650,000.
International
The final October
Chinese Caixin services PMI came in at 56.8 versus consensus of 54.0; the
German services PMI was 49.5 versus 48.9; the EU services PMI was 46.9 versus
46.2; the UK services PMI was 51.4 versus 52.3.
The final October
Chinese Caixin composite PMI was 55.7 versus forecasts of 54.0; the German
composite PMI was 55.0 versus 54.5; the EU composite PMI was 50.0 versus 49.9;
the UK composite PMI was 52.1 versus 52.9.
Other
Stagflation will be the challenge in 2021.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stagflation-will-challenge-the-president-in-2021-11604274618
Global manufacturing output accelerated in
October.
https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/e3d973e53d6d4f30ab649bf8af868b80
Early Q4 GDP forecasts.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/11/early-q4-gdp-forecasts.html
Fiscal
Policy
The national debt matters.
The
Election
As you know, I do my best to stay out of
politics. But since this is election
time, I thought that I would pass on comments from the big boys (below) about
what happens next---with the caveat that no one has a clue. I will observe that the Mr. Market seems to have
been saying that either this will be an uncontested election (which isn’t
happening) and that whoever wins, it will be a positive for equities or that we
will end up with a divided government (which appears more likely).
As you
know, my preferred scenario is always gridlock because it decreases the odds of
the ruling class doing anything stupid (which is its tendency) that would mess
with my (and your) life. So, whoever
becomes president, if the GOP retains the senate, I, and apparently the Market,
will be satisfied.
However, the real
positive for the Market, as Ed Yardini opines below is that whatever the result
of the election, all will be well because the Fed is there with its hand on
monetary pump ready to rescue the economy, the Market, the world, the universe,
Goldilocks, Little Orphan Annie, the Dallas Cowboys and anyone else that needs
help.
That said, please
pay attention to the endless documentation that I present on valuations.
Gridlock and the Fed.
http://blog.yardeni.com/2020/11/gridlock-is-more-bullish-than-blue-or.html
How the ‘big boys’ are election proofing their
assets.
Rules to navigate a contentious election.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rules-navigate-contentious-election
They can’t help you.
https://alephblog.com/2020/11/03/they-cant-help-you-redux/
JP Morgan’s opinion.
Random election day thoughts.
https://ritholtz.com/2020/11/random-election-day-thoughts/
The
coronavirus
Sweden: still a beacon of light.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/sweden-beacon-light-against-world-gone-mad
Bottom
line. Beware of the regression to trend.
More on valuations.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/11/03/is-the-stock-market-cheap
Corporate insiders not buying.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sign-caution-corporate-insiders-absent-dip-buying
Dividends by the number in October.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Emerson
Electric (NYSE:EMR) declares
$0.505/share quarterly dividend, 1% increase from prior dividend of $0.500.
What
I am reading today
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