The Morning Call---Time to do nothing

 

The Morning Call

 

11/13/20

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.  I continue to believe that the technicals are the most important factor now as a tell on Market direction; specifically, (1) (on the upside) whether the indices can successfully challenge their all-time highs; if so, it opens the way for new highs, if not, the risk of a triple top increases and/or (2) (on the downside) if they can hold above the support provided by their 100 DMA’s and their 9/24 lows; if so, it leaves open the chance at another challenge of their all-time highs, if not, the odds of a triple top accelerate to the upside.  This remains a time to do nothing.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bid-stocks-skid-lockdowns-loom-stimulus-hope-slumps

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The October budget deficit was $284 billion versus expectations of $274 billion.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-starts-fiscal-2021-largest-october-budget-deficit-record

 

October PPI rose 0.3% versus consensus of +0.2%; core PPI was up 0.1% versus +0.2%.

 

                        International

 

The September EU trade balance was +E24.8 billion versus estimates of +E22.0 billion.

 

The Q3 second estimate of EU GDP growth was +12.6% versus predictions of +12.7%; employment change was +0.9% versus +1.5%.

 

                        Other

                         

                          An economic update from my favorite optimist.

                          http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2020/11/recovery-on-track-politics-is-no-longer.html

 

                                    Millions could lose unemployment benefits at the end of the years.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/11/many-millions-could-lose-unemployment.html

 

                                   Housing debt is a major concern.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/housing-debt-bubble-going-burst

 

                                   Odds of fiscal stimulus anytime soon fade.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-yields-slide-odds-1-trillion-fiscal-stimulus-collapse

 

                  The coronavirus

 

                Statistical update on coronavirus.

                https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2020/11/eight-months-of-coronavirus-pandemic-in.html#.X62AJ8hKiM8

 

                      Bottom line. Stocks do go down.

                https://howardlindzon.com/stocks-do-go-down/

 

                More on growth versus value stocks.

                http://www.capitalspectator.com/how-unusual-is-the-current-drought-for-the-value-factor/#more-15050

 

                            Unraveling value’s decade long underperformance (this article is long but it is a

                  must read).

                 https://lt3000.blogspot.com/2020/11/unravelling-values-decade-long.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.76 beats by $0.06; GAAP EPS of $0.51 beats by $0.01.

Revenue of $11.93B (-9.3% Y/Y) beats by $80M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Government versus private funding of research.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/pfizers-vaccine-is-something-of-a-blow-for-the-mariana-mazzucato-thesis

           

 

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