Friday, November 13, 2020

The Morning Call---Time to do nothing


The Morning Call




The Market




            Thursday in the charts.  I continue to believe that the technicals are the most important factor now as a tell on Market direction; specifically, (1) (on the upside) whether the indices can successfully challenge their all-time highs; if so, it opens the way for new highs, if not, the risk of a triple top increases and/or (2) (on the downside) if they can hold above the support provided by their 100 DMA’s and their 9/24 lows; if so, it leaves open the chance at another challenge of their all-time highs, if not, the odds of a triple top accelerate to the upside.  This remains a time to do nothing.







              The Economy




The October budget deficit was $284 billion versus expectations of $274 billion.



October PPI rose 0.3% versus consensus of +0.2%; core PPI was up 0.1% versus +0.2%.




The September EU trade balance was +E24.8 billion versus estimates of +E22.0 billion.


The Q3 second estimate of EU GDP growth was +12.6% versus predictions of +12.7%; employment change was +0.9% versus +1.5%.




                          An economic update from my favorite optimist.



                                    Millions could lose unemployment benefits at the end of the years.



                                   Housing debt is a major concern.



                                   Odds of fiscal stimulus anytime soon fade.



                  The coronavirus


                Statistical update on coronavirus.



                      Bottom line. Stocks do go down.



                More on growth versus value stocks.



                            Unraveling value’s decade long underperformance (this article is long but it is a

                  must read).



    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios


Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.76 beats by $0.06; GAAP EPS of $0.51 beats by $0.01.

Revenue of $11.93B (-9.3% Y/Y) beats by $80M.


What I am reading today


            Government versus private funding of research.




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