The Morning Call---Pay attention to the technicals

The Morning Call

 

11/11/20

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/momentum-massacre-trounces-tech-stocks-bonds-drop-bullion-pops

 

                Providing a bit more detail: (1) neither the Dow nor the S&P regained their former all-time highs.  Every day that they don’t increases the odds of a triple top, (2) the long bond closed below the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend.  If it finishes there today, that trend will be voided.  The next visible support is 5% lower.

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 0.5% while purchase applications were down 2.6%

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales growth declined from prior week.

 

The September Jobs Openings report (JOLTS) showed  6.436 million openings versus consensus of 6.5 million.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/11/bls-job-openings-little-changed-at-64.html

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          World teeters on bring of coronavirus double dip recession.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2020/11/world-economy-teeters-on-double-dip.html#.X6rA4YhKiM8

 

                          Manufacturing jobs, the trade war and the coronavirus.

                          http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/11/manufacturing-employment-hours-and-output-and-the-trade-war

 

                          A look at the dollar’s future.

                          https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/covid19-currency-stability-unlikely-to-persist-long-term-by-kenneth-rogoff-2020-11

 

                          Is inflation about to start rising?

                          http://www.capitalspectator.com/a-new-burst-of-reflation-pricing-in-the-treasury-market/

                      

                         Mortgage delinquencies fell in Q3.

                         https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/11/mba-mortgage-delinquencies-decrease-in.html

 

            The Fed

 

              Central bankers seek new role.

              https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cenbank-policy/central-bankers-seek-new-role-in-brave-new-world-idUSKBN27Q1M4

 

            China

 

              Future growth prospects.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/11/09/getting-the-bird-back-into-its-old-cage/

 

            Bottom line.  The technicals are today’s story because of what they could be (operative phrase) portending, i.e. a triple top and rising interest rates.  Be careful.

 

            More on valuation.

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-sp-500s-return-over-the-next-10-years-will-be-nothing-like-the-last-10-2020-11-09?mod=home-page

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

            3M (NYSE:MMM) declares $1.47/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Post-election thoughts.

            https://quillette.com/2020/11/09/america-has-serious-problems-its-time-to-stop-blaming-them-on-trumpism/

           

 

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