Friday, November 20, 2020

The Morning Call--Technicals still uncertain

 

The Morning Call

 

11/20/20

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.  The indices closed higher but were still unable to regain their all-time highs, leaving open the possibility of a triple (quadruple) top.  On the other hand, the pin action represented no follow through to the downside, suggesting that there is enough continued strength to set up yet another challenge of their all-time highs.  In short, technically speaking, this Market could go either way.  Follow through.  In the meantime, while the other indicators remain in former patterns that indicate uncertainty, they are all near boundaries which if successfully challenged would point to a weaker economy.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/value-rotation-stalls-bond-yields-dollar-slide

 

            Close but no cigar.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-suddenly-surge-schumer-mcconnell-headlines

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          October existing home sales rose 4.3% versus forecasts of -1.2%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/11/19/october-existing-home-sales-5th-consecutive-month-of-growth

 

                          The October leading economic indicators were up 0.7%, in line.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/11/19/cb-leading-economic-index-continued-recovery-with-continued-downside-risk

 

The November Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was reported at 20 versus projections of 18.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/11/19/kansas-city-fed-survey-manufacturing-still-not-at-pre-covid-levels

 

                        International

 

October Japanese CPI fell 0.1% versus estimates of unchanged; its November flash manufacturing PMI was 48.3 versus 49.4, the services PMI was 46.7 versus 49.1, the composite PMI was 47.0 versus 49.4.

 

October German PPI was 0.1%, in line.

 

October UK retail sales rose 1.2% versus expectations of unchanged; ex fuel, they were up 0.3% versus +0.1%; November consumer confidence was -33 versus -34.

 

                        Other

 

                          Hotel occupancy declined 32% YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/11/hotels-occupancy-rate-declined-327-year.html

 

            The coronavirus

 

              Top pathologist scorns coronavirus as greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the public.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/top-pathologist-claims-covid-19-greatest-hoax-ever-perpetrated-unsuspecting-public

 

              Anti-lockdown protests spread across Europe.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/rising-anti-lockdown-protests-spread-across-europe

 

            Bottom line.

 

John Malone buying hard assets.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/billionaire-malone-buying-hard-assets-farmland-fears-inflationary-dollar-debasement

 

Asset allocation is the most important step in developing an investment program.

http://www.capitalspectator.com/revisiting-first-principles-for-portfolio-design-part-i/#more-15086

 

Another article from my favorite optimist, this one suggesting that there is no     evidence of an equity bubble; this one also woefully short of evidence.

            .  http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2020/11/liquid-global-bond-and-equity-market.html

 

              Max pain in small caps.

              https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2020/11/19/max-pain/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Williams-Sonoma (NYSE:WSM): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.56 beats by $1.05; GAAP EPS of $2.54 beats by $1.01.

Revenue of $1.76B (+22.2% Y/Y) beats by $170M.

 

Home Depot (NYSE:HD) declares $1.50/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) declares $3.63/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

Brown-Forman (NYSE:BF.B) declares $0.1795/share quarterly dividend, 3% increase from prior dividend of $0.1743.

 

What I am reading today

 

            More evidence of what happened to the colonists on Roanoke Island.

            https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/11/newfound-survivor-camp-may-explain-lost-colony-roanoke/?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src=ngp::cmp=editorial::add=SpecialEdition_Escape_20201118&rid=7912D7310BBCEE9B958D4BEDCFEC5AE5

 

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