Friday, November 20, 2020

The Morning Call--Technicals still uncertain


The Morning Call




The Market




            Thursday in the charts.  The indices closed higher but were still unable to regain their all-time highs, leaving open the possibility of a triple (quadruple) top.  On the other hand, the pin action represented no follow through to the downside, suggesting that there is enough continued strength to set up yet another challenge of their all-time highs.  In short, technically speaking, this Market could go either way.  Follow through.  In the meantime, while the other indicators remain in former patterns that indicate uncertainty, they are all near boundaries which if successfully challenged would point to a weaker economy.



            Close but no cigar.







              The Economy




                          October existing home sales rose 4.3% versus forecasts of -1.2%.



                          The October leading economic indicators were up 0.7%, in line.



The November Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was reported at 20 versus projections of 18.





October Japanese CPI fell 0.1% versus estimates of unchanged; its November flash manufacturing PMI was 48.3 versus 49.4, the services PMI was 46.7 versus 49.1, the composite PMI was 47.0 versus 49.4.


October German PPI was 0.1%, in line.


October UK retail sales rose 1.2% versus expectations of unchanged; ex fuel, they were up 0.3% versus +0.1%; November consumer confidence was -33 versus -34.




                          Hotel occupancy declined 32% YoY.



            The coronavirus


              Top pathologist scorns coronavirus as greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the public.



              Anti-lockdown protests spread across Europe.



            Bottom line.


John Malone buying hard assets.


Asset allocation is the most important step in developing an investment program.


Another article from my favorite optimist, this one suggesting that there is no     evidence of an equity bubble; this one also woefully short of evidence.



              Max pain in small caps.



    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios


Williams-Sonoma (NYSE:WSM): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.56 beats by $1.05; GAAP EPS of $2.54 beats by $1.01.

Revenue of $1.76B (+22.2% Y/Y) beats by $170M.


Home Depot (NYSE:HD) declares $1.50/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.


BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) declares $3.63/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.


Brown-Forman (NYSE:BF.B) declares $0.1795/share quarterly dividend, 3% increase from prior dividend of $0.1743.


What I am reading today


            More evidence of what happened to the colonists on Roanoke Island.



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