The Morning Call
11/18/20
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the charts. The most important detail is that while the
Dow and S&P sold off, they remained above their all-time highs for a second
day. If they remain there through the
close on Thursday, the challenge will be successful (accordingly to my time and
distance discipline). On the other hand,
bonds, the dollar and gold still aren’t buying the optimism.
No variable exists
in a vacuum.
https://thereformedbroker.com/2020/11/17/dont-share-this-chart/
Too much of a good
thing.
http://www.athrasher.com/can-you-have-too-much-of-a-good-thing/
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications fell 0.3% but purchase applications increased 3.5%.
Month to date retail chain store sales growth improved
over the prior week.
October industrial production rose 1.1%
versus expectations of +1.0%.
October housing
starts were up 4.9% versus predictions of no change; building permits were
unchanged versus +0.1%.
The November
housing market index came in at 90 versus consensus of 85.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/11/nahb-builder-confidence-increased-to-90.html
International
The October
Japanese trade balance was Y872.9 billion versus estimates of Y250.0 billion.
October UK CPI was
flat versus projections of -0.1%; core CPI was +0.2% versus 0.0%; PPI was 0.0%
versus +0.1%.
October EU CPI was
+0.2%, in line.
Other
Update on big four economic indicators.
Underestimating inflation.
https://www.ft.com/content/1994474d-1736-499d-903e-422bc58e486d
Soybeans near $12/bushel.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/soybeans-near-12-bushel-us-farmers-celebrate-surging-prices
The Fed
The
Fed put. It’s real and it’s spectacular.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/new-study-finds-fed-put-very-real-and-dates-back-mid-90s
As
long as the music is playing, you have to dance.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/it-will-end-tears-some-point
Powell
says that we have a long way to go to recovery.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/watch-live-fed-chair-powell-warns-we-have-long-way-go-recovery
Bottom
line. Time to reduce risk.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bulls-go-ballistic-time-reduce-risk
Yield hunters have three options.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/yield-hunters-have-three-options/ar-BB1b3BFD
Sector rotation in progress?
http://www.capitalspectator.com/us-equity-sector-rotation-in-progress/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (NYSE:MSM) declares
$3.50/share special dividend.
What
I am reading today
Forgiving student debt is
a dumb idea.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/forgiving-student-debt-is-still-a-dumb-idea/
Bitcoin is gunning for a record and
no one is talking about it.
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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