Monday, November 9, 2020

Monday Morning Chartology---Not


The Morning Call




The Market




            ***Given the overnight news on Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine (see below) and the Markets’ reactions, none of the technical comments written after close Friday have much meaning.  So, I will do the Monday Morning Chartology on Tuesday.







              The Economy


                         Review of last week


The economic data last week was roughly neutral but the primary indicators were negative (one positive, one neutral, two negative).  So, the stats continue to discount any notion of a ‘V’ shaped recovery.  And if the election results end up as they now stand (Biden/GOP senate), then the odds are that we get less fiscal stimulus than if either part had won both the presidency and the senate---meaning a slower rate of recovery than what otherwise might have been.


By the way, I don’t think that is necessarily all bad.  As you know, one of my principal concerns regarding the long term secular growth rate of the economy is that (the cost of servicing) too much government debt stifles growth.


The economy is healing but not fast enough.


Will the coronavirus derail the recovery?


Overseas, the indicators very positive.  That said, (1) the trend to date has been quite sketchy; so we can’t read too much into one week’s stats and (2) with renewed lockdowns occurring across Europe, I am not sure there will be much follow through to these upbeat numbers.  Not helpful to our own recovery.


Whatever the shape or magnitude of the near term bounce back, I am not altering my belief that long term the economy will grow at a historically subpar secular rate due to the twin burdens of egregiously irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies---which, by the way, are becoming even more egregiously irresponsible as a result of measures being taken by the government and the Fed in dealing with the current crisis.







The preliminary September Japanese reading of its leading economic indicators was 82.9 versus projections of 88.6.


The September German trade balance was E20.8 billion versus forecasts of E19.9 billion.




                          Update on rail traffic.



            The coronavirus


              ***overnight, Pfizer says coronavirus vaccine 90% effective,



              How to mislead humanity into accepting lockdowns (must read).



            Bottom line.  Where would the Market be without QE?



              Update on the Buffett valuation indicator.




                  Don’t bulls**t yourself.



              The Markets and the economy do not care about your politics.



    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios


McDonald's (NYSE:MCD): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.22 beats by $0.32; GAAP EPS of $2.35 beats by $0.44.

Revenue of $5.42B (-1.5% Y/Y) beats by $50M.


What I am reading today


            The election and the Supreme Court.



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