Wednesday, September 2, 2020

The Morning Call---When the irrational becomes rationalized

The Morning Call

 

9/2/20

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

The Averages  (28646, 3526) rebounded nicely yesterday, maintaining their upward momentum.  As you know, my assumption is that the Market’s bias is to the upside long term.   However, shorter term, a number of factors are at work that could lead to some price weakness: (1) last week, both of the indices made a gap up open, joining those two gap up opens made four weeks ago, (2) the VIX continues to reflect investor concern [yesterday, it was down only fractionally on what was strong Market day], (3) the indices’ breadth remains in overbought territory while the rest of the Market weakens and (4) historically, September is the worst month of the year for Market performance. 

https://sentimentrader.com/blog/massive-surge-in-speculative-trading-again/

 

            Art Cashin on the short term effects of stock splits.

            https://thereformedbroker.com/2020/08/31/art-cashin-on-the-short-term-effects-of-stock-splits/

 

            Robinhood traders are not having that much impact on stock prices.

            https://ofdollarsanddata.com/robinhood-trader/

 

Gold continued to move up, maintaining the uptrend off its March/June lows.  TLT rallied another 1 1/8%; but it was still not enough to undo the damage done in last week’s selloff.  Short term, its chart remains negative.  The dollar rose, but its chart remains the ugliest of those indicators that I follow. 

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/option-insanity-leads-furious-meltup-apple-above-russell-2000-emini-new-record-high

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications declined 2% while purchase applications     were off 0.2%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

 

                          July construction spending rose 0.1% versus estimates of +1.0%.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/09/construction-spending-increased.html

 

                          The August manufacturing PMI was 53.1 versus consensus of 53.6.

                           https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/09/01/markit-manufacturing-up-in-july

 

                           The August ISM manufacturing index was 56.0 versus expectations of                54.5.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/09/01/ism-manufacturing-index-up-1-8-in-july

 

August light vehicle sales came in at 15.1 million versus forecasts of 14.5

million.

 

The August ADP private payroll report showed job increases of 425,000 versus projections of 950,000.

                                         https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/job-gains-are-minimal-adp-employment-dramatically-misses-expectations-august   

 

                        International

 

                          July German retail sales fell 0.9% versus projections of +0.5%.

 

                          July EU PPI was +0.6% versus estimates of +0.5%.

 

                        Other

 

                          July update on median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2020/09/median-household-income-in-july-2020.html#.X06OMchKiM8

 

                                                  Framing lumber prices continue to soar.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/09/update-framing-lumber-prices-up-150.html

                

                

The Fed

 

  The true costs of zombie companies and easy money.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/true-costs-zombie-companies-and-easy-money

 

The coronavirus

 

  How deep is your coronavirus religion?

  https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/09/01/just_how_deep_is_your_coronavirus_religion_575883.html

 

              Millions of Americans have had their savings wiped out.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/millions-americans-had-their-emergency-savings-wiped-out-downturn

 

            China

 

              US increases support for Taiwan.

              https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-taiwan-dialogue/u-s-increases-support-for-taiwan-says-to-counter-rising-china-pressure-idUSKBN25R2WJ

 

              US/China decoupling is hard to do---this article seems a bit too optimistic.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-china-decoupling-hard-do

 

            Bottom line  When the irrational becomes rationalized.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/2020-when-irrational-became-rationalized

 

              The latest from Mohamed El Erian.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/el-erian-warns-retail-face-big-potential-losses-professionals-selling

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Brown-Forman (NYSE:BF.B): Q1 GAAP EPS of $0.67 beats by $0.37.

Revenue of $753M (-1.7% Y/Y) beats by $61.72M.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

            Lucifer’s hammer.

            https://www.epsilontheory.com/lucifers-hammer/

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 


No comments:

Post a Comment