The Morning Call
9/16/20
The
Market
Technical
The Averages (27995, 3401) basically marched in place
yesterday (Dow down slightly; S&P up fractionally). Short term, they (1) remain in a trend of
lower highs within a trading range, (2) must still fill two gap up opens lower
down and (3) have to overcome September’s negative seasonal predisposition. But lots of support exists at their 100 DMA’s
(26208/3159), their 200 DMA’s (26208/3097) and the lower boundary of their
short term trading ranges (18213/2991).
Longer term their charts
are positive. Indeed, the Dow’s 100 DMA
is about to cross above its 200 DMA. My
current operating assumption remains that the Market’s bias is to the upside
long term---until QEInfinity/Forever either comes to an end or investors
conclude that it has been, is and will be an economic disaster.
Long tech becomes
the most crowded trade of all time.
The
liquidity boom fueled record stimulus has ended.
Gold reversed again
to the downside, continuing its recent see saw trading pattern between a series
of lower highs and the July/August minor support level. In other words, consolidating. TLT was down one cent; it too seems to be
consolidating. The dollar was up, failing to break the current short term trend
of lower highs.
In short, all
these indices are in some sort of consolidation phase---which is not surprising
given the economic and political cross currents investors are now facing.
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/exxon-wto-iwtf-snowflake-spacs-zombies
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications fell 2.5% while purchase applications were down 0.5%.
Month to date
retail chain store sales declined more rapidly than in the prior week.
August industrial
production was up 0.4% versus consensus of +1.0%; capacity utilization was 71.4
in line.
August retail sales
were up 0.6% versus estimates of +1.0%; ex autos, they were up 0.7% versus +0.9%.
International
The July EU trade
balance was E27.9 billion versus forecasts of E25.1 billion.
The August
Japanese trade balance was Y248.3 billion versus projections of -Y37.5 billion.
The August UK CPI
was -0.4% versus expectations of-0.6%; core CPI was -0.6% versus -0.9%; PPI was
-0.4% versus -0.3%; core PPI was +0.1%, in line.
Other
Growth but no ‘V’ shaped recovery.
https://global-macro-monitor.com/2020/09/13/q3-gdp-growth-set-for-30-but-no-v-shaped-recovery/
Europe’s zombie firms.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/europes-zombie-firms-are-multiplying-never
The
Fed
The Fed and future inflation.
So far, the Treasury market has yawned at the
Fed’s new inflation policy.
http://www.capitalspectator.com/treasury-market-yawns-at-feds-new-inflation-policy/
The money printing end game.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-bank-spots-demographic-trigger-launched-money-printing-endgame
Fiscal
Policy
Government spending and inflation.
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/516345-sound-the-alarm-bells-on-inflation
Stimulus compromise bill goes down to defeat.
Biden’s budget plan.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bidens-multi-trillion-dollar-budget-biggest-increase-decades
The
coronavirus
Overnight update.
Global GDP loss from coronavirus tops $11
trillion.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2020/09/cumulative-world-gdp-loss-from.html#.X2FExGhKiM8
Bottom
line. Everything is priced in.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everything-priced
Growth versus value---take a blind taste test
(must read).
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/growth-or-value-take-blind-taste-test
Institutional investors are tracking what the
amateurs are doing.
The nine best
income producing assets to grow your portfolio.
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/income-producing-assets/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) declares
%0.56/share quarterly dividend, 9.8% increase from prior dividend of $0.51.
What
I am reading today
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment