Friday, September 4, 2020

The Morning Call--Blame the Fed

 

The Morning Call

 

9/4/20

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

The Averages  (28292, 3455) were hammered yesterday on higher volume and very negative breadth.  In the last couple of weeks, I have been pointing to a number factors suggesting that some sort of correction was in the offing: (1) a series of four gap opens over the last month.  Yesterday’s pin action took care of the most recent gap.  Three to go, (2) the VIX was broadly anticipating yesterday’s carnage, (3) despite the weakness in breadth, it remains in overbought territory and (4) historically, September is the worst month of the year for Market performance.

 

The question is clearly follow through.  Short term, the aforementioned technical factors could weigh on prices.  But that would be technically healthy.  This Market needs a rest.   On the other hand, as you know, my operating assumption has been that the Market’s bias is to the upside long term.  At the moment, there is no reason to doubt that.  Both indices are above their DMA’s and, except for the Dow’s short term trading range, are in uptrends across all timeframes.

 

That is not to say that the fundamental day of reckoning, which I also have been predicting, is upon us.  But that remains to be seen.  The good news is that if it is, my cash position will hold me in good stead.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/has-it-begun

 

BofA’s ‘must know’ Market stats.

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-bank-of-americas-must-know-market-stats-that-show-epic-polarization-11599123575

 

Gold was off again, finishing below the uptrend off its March/June lows for a second day (though it did set a gap down open on Wednesday).  In addition, it has now made a second lower high---so we have a second short term negative.  The key is follow through.  TLT rose again, ending above the uptrend off its March/June low for a second day and above its 100 DMA (now resistance; if it remains there through the close on Monday, it will revert to support).  Clearly, a plus.  The dollar was up fractionally, but its chart remains the ugliest of those indicators that I follow. 

           

 

                        Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-should-be-concerned-biggest-market-crash-march-frightens-fed

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The August services PMI came in at 55.0 versus estimates of 54.8; the composite PMI was 54.6 versus 54.7.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/09/03/markit-services-pmi-strongest-expansion-in-business-activity-since-march-2019

 

The August ISM nonmanufacturing index was reported at 56.9 versus consensus of 57.0.

                                  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/09/03/ism-services-continued-growth-in-august

 

August nonfarm payrolls rose 1,371,000 versus expectations of 1,400,000;     

the unemployment rate was 8.4% versus 9.8%.

                                  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/unemployment-rate-unexpedctedly-tumbles-august-payrolls-come-line

 

                        International

 

July German factory orders were up 2.8% versus forecasts of +5.0%; the August construction PMI was 48 versus 49.1.

 

The August UK construction PMI was 54.6 versus projections of 58.5.

           

                        Other

                       

                          The global coronavirus economy.

                          https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/02/global-coronavirus-economy-depression-408165

 

            The Fed

 

              The Fed abandons the Phillips Curve.

              https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/09/03/1599124135000/The-Fed-abandons-the-idea-low-unemployment-stokes-inflation/

 

              Paul Volker turning in his grave (must read).

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/albert-edwards-furious-fed-resorts-virtue-signaling-which-will-crush-poor

 

            China

 

              China will sell 20% of its US Treasury holdings.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/chinas-state-media-strongly-teases-nuclear-option-dumping-all-us-bonds-extreme-case

 

            Bottom line  Thank the Fed.

              https://alephblog.com/2020/09/02/only-a-trickle/

 

              August dividends by the numbers.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2020/09/dividends-by-numbers-in-august-2020.html#.X1E2r3lKiM8

 

              The ‘other-side’ argument.

              http://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2020/09/smart-investors-not-immune-from-my-side.html

 

                  The coronavirus price compression.

              https://www.pragcap.com/the-covid-price-compression-in-technology/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

The future is coming.

http://blog.yardeni.com/2020/09/the-future-is-coming-technology.html

           

 

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