The Morning Call
9/15/20
The
Market
Technical
The Averages (27665, 3383) built on Friday’s advance. However, short term, they remain in a trend
of lower highs within a trading range. So, there is still work to do to regain upside
momentum. Until that occurs, downside exists
to their 100 DMA’s (26208/3159), their 200 DMA’s (26208/3097) and the lower
boundary of their short term trading ranges (18213/2991). Of course, longer term their charts are
positive. Indeed, the Dow’s 100 DMA is
about to cross above its 200 DMA. My
current operating assumption remains that the Market’s bias is to the upside
long term---until QEInfinity/Forever either comes to an end or investors
conclude that it has been, is and will be an economic disaster.
The
liquidity boom fueled record stimulus has ended.
Gold was back
higher continuing its recent see saw trading pattern between a series of lower
highs and the July/August minor support level.
In other words, consolidating.
TLT was down one cent; it too seems to be consolidating. The dollar was down,
failing to break the current short term trend of lower highs. All in all, nothing of informational value in
the pin action of these indicators.
Monday in the charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/small-caps-big-tech-bullion-bounce-dollar-dives
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
August import
prices rose 0.9% versus estimates of up 0.5%; export prices were up 0.5% versus 0.4%.
The September NY
Fed manufacturing index came in at 17 versus expectations of 6.
International
July UK average
earnings fell 1.0% versus consensus of -1.3%; the unemployment rate was 4.1%,
in line.
August YoY Chinese
fixed asset investment declined 0.3% versus forecasts of -0.4%; industrial production
was up 5.6% versus up 5.1%; retail sales were up 0.5% versus 0.0%; unemployment
was 5.6%, in line.
The September EU economic
sentiment index was reported at 73.9 versus projections of 51.5; Q2 YoY wage
growth was +5.2% versus -1.0%.
The September
German economic sentiment index was 72.4 versus estimates of 69.8.
Other
Fears of a ‘no deal’ Brexit are rising again.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2020/09/14/brexit-is-back-the-endgame-for-investors
Shippers using
West Coast ports can’t book rail transportation due to shortages.
Also, rail traffic posts its first annual jump
this year.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-railroad-traffic-posts-first-annual-jump-start-2020
Fiscal
Policy
Last chance for a stimulus package.
Morgan Stanley doubts it.
The
coronavirus
‘Smoking gun’ evidence that Covid 19 was
created in a lab.
Trials for AstraZeneca’s Covid 19 vaccine on
hold do to ‘serious side effects’.
Students saddled with economic losses from
school closures.
The fragility of herd immunity.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/09/the-fragility-of-herd-immunity.html
Bottom
line. The reversion will be mean.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/reversion-will-be-mean
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Scientists
discover possible signs of life on Venus.
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/stunned-scientists-discover-possible-signs-alien-life-venus
The weird space that lies
outside our solar system.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200908-the-weird-space-that-lies-outside-our-solar-system
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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