Tuesday, September 15, 2020

The Morning Call--The reversion will be mean

 

The Morning Call

 

9/15/20

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

The Averages  (27665, 3383) built on Friday’s advance.  However, short term, they remain in a trend of lower highs within a trading range.  So, there is still work to do to regain upside momentum.  Until that occurs, downside exists to their 100 DMA’s (26208/3159), their 200 DMA’s (26208/3097) and the lower boundary of their short term trading ranges (18213/2991).  Of course, longer term their charts are positive.  Indeed, the Dow’s 100 DMA is about to cross above its 200 DMA.  My current operating assumption remains that the Market’s bias is to the upside long term---until QEInfinity/Forever either comes to an end or investors conclude that it has been, is and will be an economic disaster. 

 

            The liquidity boom fueled record stimulus has ended.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/liquidity-boom-fueled-record-stimulus-has-ended-equity-market-vulnerable

 

Gold was back higher continuing its recent see saw trading pattern between a series of lower highs and the July/August minor support level.  In other words, consolidating.  TLT was down one cent; it too seems to be consolidating. The dollar was down, failing to break the current short term trend of lower highs.  All in all, nothing of informational value in the pin action of these indicators.

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/small-caps-big-tech-bullion-bounce-dollar-dives

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

August import prices rose 0.9% versus estimates of up 0.5%; export prices   were up 0.5% versus 0.4%.

 

The September NY Fed manufacturing index came in at 17 versus expectations of 6.

 

                        International

 

July UK average earnings fell 1.0% versus consensus of -1.3%; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, in line.

 

August YoY Chinese fixed asset investment declined 0.3% versus forecasts of -0.4%; industrial production was up 5.6% versus up 5.1%; retail sales were up 0.5% versus 0.0%; unemployment was 5.6%, in line.

 

The September EU economic sentiment index was reported at 73.9 versus projections of 51.5; Q2 YoY wage growth was +5.2% versus -1.0%.

 

The September German economic sentiment index was 72.4 versus estimates of 69.8.    

 

                        Other

 

                          Fears of a ‘no deal’ Brexit are rising again.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2020/09/14/brexit-is-back-the-endgame-for-investors

 

Shippers using West Coast ports can’t book rail transportation due to shortages.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ive-never-seen-anything-shippers-using-west-coast-ports-cant-book-rail-bnsf-and-union-0

 

                                                  Also, rail traffic posts its first annual jump this year.

                         https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-railroad-traffic-posts-first-annual-jump-start-2020

 

                                       

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Last chance for a stimulus package.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-14/u-s-faces-last-chance-to-salvage-stimulus-deal-as-house-returns?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Morgan Stanley doubts it.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/morgan-stanley-no-longer-sees-fiscal-stimulus-deal-election-what-means-markets

 

            The coronavirus

 

              ‘Smoking gun’ evidence that Covid 19 was created in a lab.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/rogue-chinese-virologist-joins-twitter-publishes-evidence-covid-19-created-lab

 

              Trials for AstraZeneca’s Covid 19 vaccine on hold do to ‘serious side effects’.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-trials-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-hold-amid-probe-serious-side-effect

 

              Students saddled with economic losses from school closures.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/education/515769-students-have-already-been-saddled-with-economic-losses-from-school

 

              The fragility of herd immunity.

              https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/09/the-fragility-of-herd-immunity.html

 

            Bottom line.  The reversion will be mean.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/reversion-will-be-mean

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Scientists discover possible signs of life on Venus.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/stunned-scientists-discover-possible-signs-alien-life-venus

 

            The weird space that lies outside our solar system.

            https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200908-the-weird-space-that-lies-outside-our-solar-system

 

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