The Morning Call
9/24/20
The
Market
Technical
The Averages (26763, 3236) maintained their downward move
(very short term downtrend), posting a new lower high on increased volume and weaker
breadth. While I continue to believe
that the long term bias is to the upside, the immediate trend is clearly
down. The good news is that both indices
have multiple support levels in near proximity: their 100 DMA’s (26208/3159),
their 200 DMA’s (26208/3097) and the lower boundary of their short term trading
ranges (18213/2991).
Gold got whacked
again, finishing below the July/August minor support level for a second day. While its long term trends are up and support
exists at its 100/200 DMA’s, this recent negative pin action can’t be ignore. TLT rebounded slightly. That is a plus, but it continues to struggle
to push above the trend of lower highs and its 100 DMA (now resistance). The
dollar jumped another ½%, ending above the upper boundary of its short term
downtrend (if it remains there through the close on Friday, it will reset to a
trading range) and setting a new higher high.
If the dollar
successfully challenges its short term downtrend, it would suggest either a
move to a safety trade or higher interest rates. But TLT is resisting a move lower (higher
interest rates) and is trying to push higher (safety trade). On the other hand, GLD is breaking down, pointing
to higher rates or a move away from a safety trade. Of course, the drop in equity prices can mean
higher rates or a retreat to safety. In
short confusion. Time to be careful.
VIX term structure
shows rising uncertainty.
Interactive
Brokers hikes margin requirements.
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dollarnado-slams-stocks-gold-silver-election-angst-spreads
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly jobless claims rose by 870,000 versus
consensus of 843,000.
The September
flash manufacturing PMI came in at 53.5 versus forecasts of 53.1; the services
PMI was 54.6 versus 54.7; the composite PMI was 54.4 versus 53.0.
International
The September
German business climate index was reported at 92.6 versus expectations of 93.0;
the current conditions index was 87.9 versus 89.0.
Other
The
coronavirus
Overnight update.
Liberty or lockdown.
https://www.aier.org/article/liberty-or-lockdown/
Bottom
line
Estimating future stock returns.
https://alephblog.com/2020/09/22/estimating-future-stock-returns-june-2020-update/
The most dangerous investment move you can
make (must read).
https://www.servowealth.com/blog/the-most-dangerous-investing-move-you-can-make
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
FactSet
Research Systems (NYSE:FDS):
FQ4 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.88 beats by $0.35; GAAP EPS of $2.29 misses
by $0.05.
Revenue
of $383.6M (+5.3% Y/Y) beats by $4.86M.
Accenture (NYSE:ACN): FQ4
Non-GAAP EPS of $1.70 misses by $0.03; GAAP EPS of $1.99 beats
by $0.26.
Revenue
of $10.84B (-2.0% Y/Y) misses by $90M.
Accenture (NYSE:ACN) declares $0.88/share quarterly dividend, 10% increase from
prior dividend of $0.80.
What
I am reading today
Why isn’t Jamie Dimon
going to jail?
School bus sized asteroid will ‘buzz’
earth today.
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/watch-live-school-bus-sized-asteroid-buzz-earth-today
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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