The Morning Call---The battle is coming

 

The Morning Call

 

9/10/20

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

The Averages  (27940, 3398) rallied back hard yesterday; but not enough for the S&P to regain the lower boundary of its short term uptrend---hence resetting to a trading range.  Plus, it ended right on its former all time high---a major support/resistance level.  Nonetheless, I hate calling a reset on a day in which a powerful move takes place.  But rules are rules.  Still, those oft repeated negatives are fading; and the indices’ intermediate and long term trends are up.  So, I am not changing my current operating assumption that the Market’s bias is to the upside long term---until QEInfinity/Forever either comes to an end or investors conclude that it has been, is and will be an economic disaster. 

 

Gold bounced off a minor (July/August) support level though it still has a way to go to break the current trend of lower highs.  TLT declined ¼%, but encouragingly, it has made a higher low after failing to make a lower high. The dollar fell; and its chart remains the ugliest of those indicators that I follow.  All in all, nothing of informational value in the pin action of these indicators.

           

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bounce-critical-support-after-fastest-correction-record-high-history

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly jobless claims were 884,000 versus estimates of 846,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/continuing-jobless-claims-disappoint-part-time-jobs-recover-full-time-lags

Month to date retail chain store sales grew at a very disappointing pace versus the prior week.

 

The July job openings report (JOLTS) showed openings of 6.61 million jobs versus expectations of 6 million jobs.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/09/09/job-openings-labor-turnover-july-2020-update

 

August PPI came in at +0.3 versus consensus of +0.2%; core PPI was +0.4% versus +0.2%.

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          ECB keeps rates and QE unchanged.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecb-keeps-bond-purchase-program-rates-unchanged-expected

 

In subsequent press conference, Lagarde said ECB not concerned about rising euro (weak dollar).

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/euro-surges-report-ecb-agrees-no-need-overreact-euro-gains-lagarde-begins-speech

 

                          Saudi Arabia just crushed US crude oil prices, again.

                          https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/09/08/saudi-arabia-just-crushed-us-crude-oil-prices-agai/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              America’s fiscal follies (must read).

              https://www.aier.org/article/americas-fiscal-follies-are-dangerously-in-the-red/

 

              Is the Keynesian spell breaking?

              https://www.themoneyillusion.com/is-the-keynesian-spell-breaking/

 

            China

 

              US businesses in China not heeding Trump’s call to return home.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-09/u-s-businesses-in-china-not-heeding-trump-s-call-to-return-home?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Bottom line.  The battle is coming.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/battle-coming-reality-vs-delusion

 

              The latest from Stanley Druckenmiller.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/druckenmiller-warns

           

              A bear with a cardboard box on its head.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bear-cardboard-box-its-head

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2020/09/quotation-of-the-day-3278.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CafeHayek+%28Cafe+Hayek%29

 

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