Thursday, September 10, 2020

The Morning Call---The battle is coming


The Morning Call




The Market




The Averages  (27940, 3398) rallied back hard yesterday; but not enough for the S&P to regain the lower boundary of its short term uptrend---hence resetting to a trading range.  Plus, it ended right on its former all time high---a major support/resistance level.  Nonetheless, I hate calling a reset on a day in which a powerful move takes place.  But rules are rules.  Still, those oft repeated negatives are fading; and the indices’ intermediate and long term trends are up.  So, I am not changing my current operating assumption that the Market’s bias is to the upside long term---until QEInfinity/Forever either comes to an end or investors conclude that it has been, is and will be an economic disaster. 


Gold bounced off a minor (July/August) support level though it still has a way to go to break the current trend of lower highs.  TLT declined ¼%, but encouragingly, it has made a higher low after failing to make a lower high. The dollar fell; and its chart remains the ugliest of those indicators that I follow.  All in all, nothing of informational value in the pin action of these indicators.


            Wednesday in the charts.







              The Economy




                          Weekly jobless claims were 884,000 versus estimates of 846,000.


Month to date retail chain store sales grew at a very disappointing pace versus the prior week.


The July job openings report (JOLTS) showed openings of 6.61 million jobs versus expectations of 6 million jobs.



August PPI came in at +0.3 versus consensus of +0.2%; core PPI was +0.4% versus +0.2%.






                          ECB keeps rates and QE unchanged.



In subsequent press conference, Lagarde said ECB not concerned about rising euro (weak dollar).



                          Saudi Arabia just crushed US crude oil prices, again.



            Fiscal Policy


              America’s fiscal follies (must read).



              Is the Keynesian spell breaking?





              US businesses in China not heeding Trump’s call to return home.



            Bottom line.  The battle is coming.



              The latest from Stanley Druckenmiller.



              A bear with a cardboard box on its head.



    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios



What I am reading today


            Quote of the day.



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