Tuesday, September 29, 2020

The Morning Call--Too much debt, too much money, too much lockdown

 

The Morning Call

 

9/29/20

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

The Averages  (27584, 3351) continued their rally, with the S&P closing well above the trend of lower highs while the Dow finished right on that trend line.  After bouncing off their 100 DMA last Thursday, the pin action suggests more upside and reinforces my long term view that the Market bias is to the upside.  That is the good news.  The bad news is that both had gap up opens, which, as you know, I believe will have to be filled.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/credit-options-signal-stock-downside-concerns-bofa-outlines-tactical-bullbear-signals

 

            Update on margin debt.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/09/28/margin-debt-and-the-market-up-another-5-in-august

 

Gold had another good day, maintaining its rebound off its 100 DMA.  Still, short term, it remains in a trend of lower highs and lower lows.  TLT declined, ending below its 100 DMA (again) and continuing its struggle to keep its trend of higher lows intact. The dollar slumped but remained in a developing trend of higher lows.  In short, the individual indices continue to send indecisive messages---not really supporting the strong move up in equities.

 

                Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-silver-stocks-surge-real-yields-tumble

 

            The emerging markets chart that you need to watch.

            https://allstarcharts.com/em-chart-to-watch/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                           

The July Case Shiller home price index rose 0.6% versus   expectations of +0.2%.

 

The August trade balance was -$82.9 billion versus consensus of -$81.0 billion.

 

August wholesale inventories were up 0.5% versus forecasts of down 0.2%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales were down less than anticipated from the prior week.

                           

The September Dallas Fed manufacturing index was reported at 13.6   versus estimates of 5.0.                     

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/09/28/september-regional-fed-manufacturing-overview

 

 

                        International

 

August UK consumer credit rose L.3 billion versus projections of +L1.45 billion.

 

September EU economic sentiment came in at 91.1 versus predictions of 89.0; industrial sentiment was -11.1 versus -10.0; services sentiment was -11.1 versus -15.7; consumer confidence was -13.9, in line.

 

September German CPI came in down 0.4% versus expectations of -0.1%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Is the disinflationary scenario about to make a comeback?

                          http://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-post-crash-reflation-trade-fading/

 

                          Or is inflation about to ratchet up?

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/inflation-already-here-fed-may-have-major-problem-its-hands

 

            The Fed

 

              Will QEInfinity/Forever ever really end?

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-09-28/after-saving-the-world-economy-central-bankers-face-new-dilemmas?srnd=economics-       vp&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              $50 trillion in national debt is coming.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2020/09/25/great-reset-update-50-trillion-debt-coming

 

            The coronavirus

 

              Overnight update.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/confirmed-covid-19-deaths-top-1-million-mark-many-more-uncounted-live-updates

 

              How accurate is the official coronavirus death toll stats?

              https://issuesinsights.com/2020/09/25/is-the-official-covid-19-death-toll-accurate/

 

            Bottom line.  Too much debt, too much money, too much lockdown.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/david-stockman-economys-role-upcoming-presidential-election

 

              If you run out of chips, you are out of the game.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/navigating-q4-2020-paul-tudor-jones-10-investing-rules

 

              Enormous uncertainty despite Fed fueled Market rise.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enormous-uncertainty-despite-fed-fueled-market-surge

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Why isn’t every major bank CEO in jail?

            https://taibbi.substack.com/p/revenge-of-the-money-launderers-b84

 

            What is the conflict between Greece and Turkey all about?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/whats-conflict-between-greece-and-turkey-all-about

 

            What is the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan all about?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/armenian-azerbaijani-war-rages-south-caucasus

 

            A brain trick to make you more creative.

            https://forge.medium.com/a-brain-trick-to-make-you-more-creative-intuitive-and-happy-da933c57a46

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

No comments:

Post a Comment