The Morning Call
9/29/20
The
Market
Technical
The Averages (27584, 3351) continued their rally, with the
S&P closing well above the trend of lower highs while the Dow finished right
on that trend line. After bouncing off
their 100 DMA last Thursday, the pin action suggests more upside and reinforces
my long term view that the Market bias is to the upside. That is the good news. The bad news is that both had gap up opens,
which, as you know, I believe will have to be filled.
Update on margin
debt.
Gold had another
good day, maintaining its rebound off its 100 DMA. Still, short term, it remains in a trend of
lower highs and lower lows. TLT declined,
ending below its 100 DMA (again) and continuing its struggle to keep its trend
of higher lows intact. The dollar slumped but remained in a developing trend of
higher lows. In short, the individual indices
continue to send indecisive messages---not really supporting the strong move up
in equities.
Monday in the charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-silver-stocks-surge-real-yields-tumble
The emerging
markets chart that you need to watch.
https://allstarcharts.com/em-chart-to-watch/
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The July Case
Shiller home price index rose 0.6% versus expectations of +0.2%.
The August trade
balance was -$82.9 billion versus consensus of -$81.0 billion.
August wholesale
inventories were up 0.5% versus forecasts of down 0.2%.
Month to date
retail chain store sales were down less than anticipated from the prior week.
The September Dallas
Fed manufacturing index was reported at 13.6 versus estimates of 5.0.
International
August UK consumer
credit rose L.3 billion versus projections of +L1.45 billion.
September EU
economic sentiment came in at 91.1 versus predictions of 89.0; industrial
sentiment was -11.1 versus -10.0; services sentiment was -11.1 versus -15.7;
consumer confidence was -13.9, in line.
September German
CPI came in down 0.4% versus expectations of -0.1%.
Other
Is the disinflationary scenario about to make
a comeback?
http://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-post-crash-reflation-trade-fading/
Or is inflation about to ratchet up?
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/inflation-already-here-fed-may-have-major-problem-its-hands
The
Fed
Will QEInfinity/Forever ever really end?
Fiscal
Policy
$50 trillion in national debt is coming.
The
coronavirus
Overnight update.
How accurate is the official coronavirus death
toll stats?
https://issuesinsights.com/2020/09/25/is-the-official-covid-19-death-toll-accurate/
Bottom
line. Too much debt, too much money, too much
lockdown.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/david-stockman-economys-role-upcoming-presidential-election
If you run out of chips, you are out of the
game.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/navigating-q4-2020-paul-tudor-jones-10-investing-rules
Enormous uncertainty despite Fed fueled Market
rise.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enormous-uncertainty-despite-fed-fueled-market-surge
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Why isn’t every major
bank CEO in jail?
https://taibbi.substack.com/p/revenge-of-the-money-launderers-b84
What
is the conflict between Greece and Turkey all about?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/whats-conflict-between-greece-and-turkey-all-about
What
is the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan all about?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/armenian-azerbaijani-war-rages-south-caucasus
A
brain trick to make you more creative.
https://forge.medium.com/a-brain-trick-to-make-you-more-creative-intuitive-and-happy-da933c57a46
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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