The Morning Call
6/11/26
The Market
Technical
Wednesday in the charts.
Summary:
A somewhat cooler
than expected Core CPI supported a rebound in stocks as they shrugged
off rising oil prices (amid increased
rhetorical and kinetic action in Iran) but just like yesterday we saw SOXS
surge around 1030ET and down went stocks. Bitcoin managed
some gains today but gold was clubbed like a baby seal (liquidity
needs?) even as the dollar and bonds went nowhere. 1430ET - Margin
call time... saw bitcoin, bonds, and bullion sold (liquidity) and stocks leg
lower...
Note: the S&P is nearing its 50 DMA. Its first visible
support level (~7218).
Wednesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Thursday morning
setup: US equity futures are higher led by tech and small caps,
with traders buying the dip in stocks as a swift conclusion to the latest
round of US strikes against Iran raised expectations that talks over a peace
deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will get back on track. As of
8:00am ET, S&P futures rise 0.7% to recover from a five-week low after
Trump forewarned Iran would be hit “very hard,” followed by swift and
superficial strikes; Nasdaq 100 contracts rise 1.1% with all Mag 7 stocks
higher led by TSLA (+1.5%) and NVDA (+1.2%); ORCL is down 7% although that’s a
better showing than in the postmarket after the company reported quarterly
capital expenses that were higher than estimates. Bond yields are 1-3bp lower.
Overall, we have seen an escalation in the US/Iran since Tuesday but the
escalation is relatively limited given that the US Central Command have
declared the operation complete. War jitters promptly faded after US Central
Command called an end to “additional self-defense” strikes about four
hours after launching attacks on multiple targets in Iran, with Brent
reversing gains to trade 1% lower below $92 a barrel. Commodities are
mixed: WTI crude fell $1.15 to $88.87; base metals are mostly lower, while
previous metals are higher.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly jobless
claims totaled 229,000 versus estimates of 219,000.
May
PPI came in at +1.1% versus predictions of +0.7%; ex food and energy, it was up
+0.8% versus +0.3%----and I don’t know what to make of this one---core PPI was up 0.4%
versus +0.5%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/core-producer-prices-cooler-expected-april-headline-highest-2022
International
Other
Yesterday’s
CPI number was ‘less bad’ but not good.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/06/may-cpi-is-less-bad-but-bad-enough-to.html
Update on Q2 GDP
nowcast.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/nowcast-data-suggest-us-growth-is-accelerating-in-q2/
Iran
Oil is starting to
get through the Strait of Hormuz. Of course, some sources say that it is not
due to US escorts but because the shippers are paying a toll to Iran.
Summary: Iraq is
accelerating oil loadings at its main port and boosting shipments out of the
Persian Gulf. Observed shipments of Iraqi oil exiting Hormuz or loading at the
country's southern port of Basrah total about 7 million barrels so far this
month. Iraq and other Gulf producers are offering crude for sale both from
ports inside the Gulf, as well as via ship-to-ship transfer around Oman's Sohar
or the UAE's eastern ports.
On the other
hand---
Monetary Policy
The Fed might
again take the punch bowl away.
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/71741341-eb42-485e-aa77-24685e1b0300
ECB hikes rates,
cuts growth and raises inflation forecasts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecb-hikes-rates-expected-cuts-growth-hikes-inflation-outlook
AI
AI
price wars begin.
Investing
What if the dollar strengthens?
Is bad news already priced into the bond market?
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/06/10/bad-news-priced-bond-market
Or will continued government issuance continue to
hold prices down?
The IPO boom---where will the money come from?
https://talkmarkets.com/article/the-ipo-boom-where-will-the-money-come-from-1781091339
The risk appetite shrinks as rates and oil prices remain
volatile.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/risk-appetite-must-shrink-rates-and-oil-remain-volatile
Summary:
Risk appetite is adjusting lower as traders take profit and rotate
defensively in a market where the Fed policy path is changing quickly and
Middle East progress keeps arriving two steps forward, one step back.The market
has moved from asking when the Fed will cut to whether the next move is
higher.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What I am
reading today
El Nino has
begun---what to expect.
12 things orthopedic surgeons do to maintain
strength, balance and longevity.
https://time.com/article/2026/05/15/orthopedic-surgeons-healthy-aging-habits/
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