The Morning Call
6/9/26
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-dead-cat-bounce-history-shows-fridays-low-gets-re-tested
Summary:
Despite a weekend of escalation in the MidEast, jawboning this
morning brought oil back from the edge and that (along with a
dip in inflation expectations) supported a bounce in Friday's bidless equity
cohorts. Big tech and bitcoin outperformed as bonds
chopped around unchanged. Dollar's small dip backed gold's small
rally, but the question on everyone's lips is simple...Is this a 'Dead
cat bounce' or a dip-buying opportunity... as
investors reassess whether a higher-for-longer rate environment actually is
enough to derail the structural momentum of the AI infrastructure build-out era
and the cyclical momentum of a US economy that is charging through a
three-month-plus energy crisis with little damage so far..
Monday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Was Friday a bottom or a fakeout?
https://talkmarkets.com/article/was-that-the-bottom-or-a-fakeout-1780939447
Crude oil chart update.
Tuesday morning
setup. US equity futures are higher as Monday’s US stock gains extend into
today’s trading with both tech and small caps outperforming as the AI
theme resumes its global surge and US/Iran deal optimism is back (on the back
of the now daily optimistic comments from Trump) broadening the rally. As of
8:00am ET, tech enthusiasm is on display with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.8% as
chipmakers including Marvell Technology Inc. and Micron Technology Inc. posted
strong premarket gains, while S&P500 futures gain 0.4%. In premarket
trading, Mag7 names are mostly higher; cyclicals ex-energy are leading
defensives ex-HC. A similar theme played out in APAC, with the tech-laden Kospi
soaring 8.2%. Europe's Stoxx 600 is rising alongside weaker energy prices with
gains driven by financials and consumer names. Oil dipped after Trump said a
framework of deal "within the next 2 days," though it is unclear what
has changed from previous claims over the last 2 months. Commodities are
reacting to headline risk with Brent down 2.1% as Israel and Iran halt attacks
and Chinese oil imports declined, and WTI below $90/bbl. The
downside in energy prices has provided a mild support for global fixed income
markets, with US yields 1-2bps lower across the curve ahead of the US 3-year
note auction. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index is down 0.2%. Downside in USD/JPY
from a report that the BOJ could hike in June and October proved
fleeting. Precious metals are steady. Bitcoin sheds 1.3%. The macro data
focus will be on weekly ADP, the NFIB Small Biz Survey where the Hiring
sub-index may give add’l evidence for the labor market acceleration. Keep an
eye on the 3Y bond auction today.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Month to date retail
chain store sales rose 9.1% versus +9.0% in the prior week.
The April trade
balance was -$55.9 billion versus consensus of -$56.1 billion.
The May small
business optimism index was reported at 95.3 versus projections of 96.0.
International
The April German
trade balance was +E14.5 billion estimates of +E15.0 billion; April industrial production
was up 0.4%, in line.
The
May Chinese trade balance was $105.4 billion versus predictions of +$92.1 billion.
May Japanese YoY
machine tool orders were up 37.4% versus forecasts of +37.0%.
Other
Hormuz closure leads to working capital
squeeze.
May YoY bankruptcy filings increase 7.7%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/us-bankruptcy-filings-increase-7-percent-yearly
Monetary
Policy
What Warsh might be thinking about.
https://lawliberty.org/a-new-head-for-the-fed/?mc_cid=c7359c0d4e
AI
China plans $297 billion datacenter buildout.
The
Financial System
Apollo and Blackstone raise $35 billion in
private credit offering.
Investing
The rise of small
cap stocks.
https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2026/06/follow-those-small-cap-stocks-not.html
Too many red
flags.
Summary:
Echoing the growing pessimism of her colleague, Michael Hartnett, overnight
BofA's head of quant strategy Savita Subramanian published a note (also available to
pro subs), titled "Too many red flags. Take profits"
in which BofA says that while it still sees opportunity in S&P 500 stocks,
it is not in the overall cap-weighted index; as such the bank keeps its
S&P 500 year-end target of 7100 suggesting 6% downside from here. The
biggest reason for BofA's pessimism is that the bank's Bear market
signposts have risen to 70%, which matches the average of prior market
peaks.
S&P takes a
stand (on SpaceX).
https://philbak.substack.com/p/s-and-p-takes-a-stand
There is trouble
brewing in the Treasury market.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/06/theres-trouble-brewing-in-the-treasury-market/
Is a prolonged Middle
East crisis becoming the base case?
https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-a-prolonged-middle-east-conflict-becoming-the-base-case/
Are US Treasuries becoming a financial
chokepoint?
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/6e7b0523-e14e-4c10-9e67-409c7b510e4b
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Brave new world.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/06/08/new-world-brave
Samuel
Adams was the most libertarian of the American Founders.
https://reason.com/2026/06/07/1776-all-stars-samuel-adams/
The
CIA’s insane gold bar scandal.
Things I learned by letting go.
https://jordangrumet.substack.com/p/the-peace-of-subpar-ten-things-i
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment