The Morning Call
4/14/26
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
Summary:
Another week begins where buying Sunday's opening dip and selling the Monday
open was wildly profitable. 34 ships thru SoH and 'talks ongoing'
>> End of peace talks + Hormuz blockade with every asset
retracing the kneejerk moves overnight. Stocks were the big
'outperformers' as they seem more confident than oil and gold that this ends
well. Bond yields and the dollar tumbled all day, bitcoin bid.
Monday in the technical
stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
What is behind the
melt up?
Summary:
Looking ahead, Goldman writes that sentiment remains fragile and outside
of the expected mechanical buying from systematic players, hedge covering and
very selective re-risking, investors remain frozen in anticipation of the next
Iran/Hormuz headlines with quasi-symmetrical risks of reescalation vs
deescalation, arguing for choppiness ahead.
The tape says one
thing, the headlines another.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/the-tape-says-one-thing-headlines-say-another-1776100385
Tuesday morning
setup: US equity futures, and global stocks rise while oil slides on a Reuters
report that negotiating teams from the US and Iran could return to Pakistan
later this week to resume negotiations to end the war in the Gulf, days after
the first peace talks ended without a breakthrough, with chatter from
Pakistani media that Trump is said to be in attendance. As of 8:00am ET,
S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% while Nasdaq 100 contracts add 0.4%, as
the cash index braces for a 10th straight day of gains, its longest streak of
gains since 2021, with all Mag 7 stocks higher in premarket trading
(Alphabet +0.9%, Amazon +0.7%, Apple +0.2%, Nvidia +0.6%, Meta Platforms +1.2%,
Microsoft +1.1%, Tesla +1.9%) as tech / semis outperform other
sectors; Cyclicals ex-Energy are leading Defensives. The risk-on rally is
poised to continue today with the dollar weaker for a 7th day in a
row while Treasuries were little changed. Gold rose 0.7% toward
$4,800 an ounce. Bitcoin hit a four-week high. Brent fell
0.4% to below $99 a barrel, with the International Energy
Agency estimating that the war will wipe out global oil demand growth for
the first time since the 2020 pandemic, selling was boosted by Iran
de-escalation hopes; Ags remain bid and precious metals continue to move
inversely to the Dollar. Today’s macro data focus is on weekly ADP, Small
Biz Survey, and PPI. Headline PPI (YoY expected to increase from 3.4% to 4.6%)
is expected to see a significant jump with Core PPI (YoY expected to increase
from 3.5% to 3.8%) increases more muted. Big banks report Q1 earnings today
with consumer health the key macro read-through.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
March existing home sales
fell 3.6% versus consensus of down 2.0%.
March
PPI rose 0.3% versus projections of 1.1%; core PPI was up 0.1% versus +0.5%.
The
March small business optimism index came in at 95.8 versus estimates of 98.6.
International
February Japanese
industrial production declined 2.0% versus projections of -2.1%; capacity utilization was down 0.1% versus +1.0%.
The
March Chinese trade balance was $51.1 billion versus forecasts of $112.0
billion.
March
German CPI rose 2.7% versus expectations of +0.4%.
Other
The world’s anti-recession guardrails are
weaker than ever.
Iran
The
latest in the rapidly changing conflict.
Chinese tanker tests Trump’s blockade.
Oil shock is now fully playing out.
Summary: As
JPM concludes, today’s much wider gap signals a market struggling to
source barrels for delivery now, even if it still assumes supply will
normalize later. In that sense, the strength in Dated Brent is the
market’s way of signaling that time has become a scarce commodity.
The
danger that the Strait of Hormuz will not soon reopen.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/strait-hormuz-crisis-exposes-fatal-flaw-economic-thinking
An
optimist’s view of the current situation.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/how-irans-mosaic-doctrine-fracturing
Monetary
Policy
An impossible choice for the Fed.
An
Impossible Choice For the Fed? - Carson Group
Recession
The surge in oil prices could be the straw
that breaks the camel’s back.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/04/the-big-picture-overview-of-economy-oil.html
The
Financial System
The credit cycle has not been repealed.
Investing
Take this simple
step as you approach retirement.
https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/take-this-simple-step-runup-retirement
Ten wide moat stocks
trading at discounts to their fair value.
Bond yields are too low for what is coming.
Iran war may raise
ten year Treasury’s risk premium.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/iran-war-may-widen-10-year-yields-market-premium-vs-fair-value/
Q1 earnings season
to gain momentum.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/q1-earnings-season-to-gain-momentum-what-will-it-show-1775891992
New dawn for short
sellers?
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/9d798d20-a585-427b-8790-68dbca70ba29
What will AI do to
discount rates?
https://www.permanentequity.com/unqualified-opinions-roll/ai-and-discount-rates
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
The
‘annoyance economy’.
Artemis II
photos.
https://www.popsci.com/science/artemis-ii-photos/
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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