The Morning Call
4/8/26
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/headline-mayhem-leaves-traders-breathless-ahead-trump-deadline
Summary:
Ahead of Trump's self-imposed deadline, headline roulette reached
peak beta today with every utterance triggering a pop or drop in oil
(and thus bonds and stocks). At the end of the day, the markets ended
'meh' and stuffed full of hedges with Dated Brent surging to a
record high but late-day headlines rescued stocks (and pushed WTI futs
down). Bond yields ended lower, gold higher, bitcoin down (but off the lows),
and short-term vol spiking.
Note: the S&P
ended up modestly, negating the trend of lower highs. It was done on anticipation
of Trump delaying his ‘doomsday’ threat (which was done). But it remained below
its 200 DMA. The $64,000 question now is ‘what have we accomplished other than spending
$50 billion to prove we have the biggest Johnson and replacing a radical regime
with a more radical regime?’ Finally, I would
not chase this rally. Indeed, if I owned stocks that I wanted to sell, this is
the time to do it.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/75-gulf-energy-assets-damaged-us-iran-war-supply-shock-intensifies
Tuesday in the technical
stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Understanding the
recent rise and fall of gold prices.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/understanding-the-rise-and-recent-fall-in-gold-prices/
Wednesday morning
setup: US futures, global stocks and bonds are sharply higher while oil prices
plunge the most in years as a wave of optimism swept through global
markets after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in exchange
for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz: JPMorgan's Market Intel desk, which
moves from Neutral to Tactically Bullish this morning, says to
look for a re-risking in the very near-term albeit it with higher energy
prices. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 2.8% higher
while emerging-market stocks rallied the most since 2022; Nasdaq gains
3.5% with Mag7 and Semis seeing significant bids as part of an ‘Everything
Rally’ ex-Energy. Yet while the overwhelming mood in markets is relief, the
same core challenges remain to find a resolution amenable to both countries and
Goldman's Delta-One head says he is selling the rally. Brent plunged 16%
to around $93 a barrel. Bonds surged, with 10Y tsy yields sliding 8bps to 4.23%
while benchmark UK yields tumbled by 22 basis points. The dollar weakened to a
one-month low. Gold and silver gain. The macro data focus today is on
the Fed Minutes ahead of PCE and CPI releases later this week.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Month to date
retail chain store sales were up 7.6% versus +6.9% in the prior week.
Weekly mortgage
applications declined 0.8% while purchase applications were up 1.0%.
The April economic
optimism index was reported at 42.8 versus estimates of 48.1.
International
February German
factory orders were up 0.9% versus predictions of +0.2%.
February EU retail
sales fell 0,2%, in line; February PPI was down 0.7%, also in line.
The March EU construction
PMI came in at 44.6 versus forecasts of 46.6; the March German construction PMI
was 45.0 versus 44.5; the March UK construction PMI was 45.6 versus 43.9.
Other
How well can we withstand the current oil shock?
https://talkmarkets.com/article/how-well-can-we-withstand-this-current-oil-price-shock-1775513348
The March ISM numbers show stagflationary
expansion.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/04/march-ism-reports-show-stagflationary.html
The latest NY Fed consumer survey.
February consumer credit grew less than
anticipated.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/consumer-credit-grows-less-expected-subdued-credit-card-growth
Monetary
Policy
The Fed is walking a tight rope.
Fiscal
Policy
Economic growth is the cause of the national
debt, not the solution.
Inflation
Inflation showing worrying parallels to 2022.
The
Financial System
A slow motion bank
run? (The thing that the author is missing is that the private credit funds
still have the right to cap withdrawals. Even assuming investor wants out, the
funds have the right to say no---unlike a bank that has to return a depositors
funds.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/opinion/banking-crisis-private-credit.html
On the other hand---
Investing
Is Trump about to
do what gold bugs never could?
Update on valuation.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Who
wrote the Old Testament?
Who
really wrote the Old Testament? These are the theories. | National Geographic
Quote of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2026/04/quotation-of-the-day-5339.html
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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