The Morning Call
4/21/26
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-jumps-tech-dumps-gold-slumps-blockade-booms-ceasefire-looms
Summary:
Strong earnings and positive price momentum offered equity markets some
respite against the disappointment of US-Iran diplomacy over
the weekend (bilateral escalation in the Strait). Today's trading pattern
mimicked that of recent Mondays - with Sunday night kneejerks unwound through
the US session - but without the same strength (stocks off their lows but red,
oil off its highs but still green). VIX was up bigly (less
about call-chasing) Dollar and Bonds basically unch, bitcoin up, gold
down. “I’m not going to be rushed into making a bad deal,” Trump
said. In a phone interview, he noted the truce expires “Wednesday evening
Washington time.” Nasdaq-100's 13-day win streak is over!!
Monday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
To chase or not
chase.
https://vixology.substack.com/p/give-me-one-reason
Margin debt down
again.
The option tail is
wagging the dog.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/options-tail-wagging-dog
Summary: Tech
is trading like nothing sticks. NDX has broken the range and stayed bid despite
being deep in overbought territory, with flows and options driving the move.
The shift to spot-up, vol-up has forced upside chasing via calls, reinforcing
the squeeze and keeping pressure on dealers. The bid is real, but it’s
increasingly driven by positioning and options, not clean fundamentals. The
options tail is wagging the dog.
Tuesday morning
setup: The optimism that helped list the S&P on 11 of the prior 12 days,
and the Nasdaq on 13 consecutive days until Monday's modest pullback, is back -
because one can apparently draw the same exact event for 3 weeks now - and
sending US equity futures higher again on signs that Iran will attend
talks with the US, while the US president said it’s “highly unlikely” that he’d
extend the truce. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%, rebounding from
Monday’s decline, and supported by solid earnings, the AI narrative and
positioning even as the situation in the Middle East remains unresolved. Nasdaq
100 futures rose 0.5% with most Mag 7 names higher: AMZN +2.8%, META +0.6%,
AAPL -0.4%. Apple announced its new CEO after yesterday’s close (hardware chief
John Ternus will become the CEO effective September 1st); AMZN announced it
will invest another $25bn in Anthropic with Anthropic committing to spending
more than $100bn over the next 10yr on AWS. 10Y yields added 1bps to 4.26%. Commodities
are mostly lower: Copper -0.5%, Silver -1.0%, WTI crude was flat at $87.60
per barrel, reversing a modest loss. Retail sales and Warsh’s confirmation
hearing will be in focus later.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
March retail sales
were up 1.7% versus consensus of +1.4%; ex autos, they were up 1.9% versus
+1.4%.
International
The February UK
unemployment rate was 4.9% versus predictions of 5.2%; February average earnings
were up 3.8% versus +3.6%.
The April EU
economic sentiment index came in at -20.4 versus estimates of -3.6; the April German
economic sentiment index was -17.2 versus -5.0; the April German current conditions
index was -73.7 versus -70.0.
Other
Light vehicle sales up in March.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/04/20/vehicle-sales-rise-3-7-in-march
The whiplash economy.
https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/whiplash-economy
It is a ‘muddle through’ world.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/04/20/data-divergent
The BLS jobs report is broken.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/04/20/bls-jobs-report-broken-better-measure
Update on per capita real retail spending.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/04/updating-long-leading-indicators-per.html
On
borrowed time.
Iran
Overnight news.
Monetary
Policy
Walsh pitches rate cuts but his colleagues are
skeptical.
Fisal
Policy
The problem with Kevin Warsh’s wealth.
The Trump administration prepares to refund
tariffs.
Inflation
Don’t expect gasoline prices to soon return to
prewar levels.
The
Dollar
The
foundation for dollar dominance is weakening.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/foundations-dollar-dominance-are-weaker-anticipated
Investing
Why the stock market makes no sense right
now.
Why panic is a costly mistake.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-lesson-why-panic-costly-mistake
Your odds are not
the average.
https://www.polymathinvestor.com/p/your-odds-are-not-the-average
Investors are just
having fun.
Earnings outlook
remains strong.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/earnings-outlook-remains-very-strong-a-closer-look-1776478888
Tokens do have
real uses in finance.
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/0e82ffd6-00a1-41d6-ac26-4e72da5f69b2
Energy: a buying
opportunity.
Summary:
we reckon that the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil will fluctuate between
$75 and $95 once the war ends. We don't think it will fall back to the pre-war
range of $55-$75 anytime soon (chart). Importantly, physical damage to energy
infrastructure in the countries around the Arabian Gulf, combined with fundamental
changes in maritime insurance and transit confidence, means that even a full
reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would not immediately restore normal flows.
The supply shock is likely to have a long tail.
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