The Morning Call
4/24/26
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
Summary:
The market rollercoaster of the past 5 days continued on Thursday, with stocks
once again trying - and failing - to break out above last
Friday's all time high, in what has now become a 100 point ping-pong game as
stocks selloff just below 7200 only to get dip buyers jump in about 100 points
lower. And while stocks had largely started to ignore the news flow from Iran
in recent days, today a barrage of Iran-related headlines between 1pm and 2pm
was all that mattered, sending S&P futures tumbling as much as 100 points
lower before recovering almost all losses as it turned out that the near-war -
according to X - was fake news. And while it may appears that the market's face
ripping rally will never end, world war 3 or not, we may see some weakness in
the near future as Goldman models month-end pension rebalancing at $25 billion
of US equities to sell - the largest non-quarterly sell estimate on
record. For context, November & April 2020 was $20 billion for
sale. As for CTAs which were instrumental in pushing stocks this high,
demand is dwindling with Goldman models projecting $680 million to buy in the
US in a flat tape (after net buying $30.2bn over the last week and $42.8bn over
the last month).
Thursday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Crypto in the
charts.
Gold is going nowhere.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-going-nowhere-thats-still-trade
Friday morning
setup: US equity futures jumped to a new all-time high, reversing modest
overnight losses, and oil tumbled to session lows on reports that Iran is
sending a delegation to Pakistan today for talks, boosting hopes of ceasefire
extension or more. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi is expected to arrive in Islamabad
at 22:00 local time (1:00pm ET), the NY Post reports. As of 8:00am ET, S&P
futures rallied as much a 0.6% to a new all-time high of 7,190, reversing a
modest loss in overnight trading as Brent tumbled from $107 to around $104 on
the report. Tech shares rallied on the back of strong results
from Intel and SAP SE, with the Nasdaq 100 up 1.3% and on track for a
fourth straight weekly gain with most Mag 7 stocks trading higher. INTC
added +29% amid surprises in both earnings and sales across all major
businesses; the move will almost certainly extend the gains for semiconductor
stocks to 18 straight days. The dollar slid 0.2%. Brent erased gains to fall
1.2% to below $104 a barrel while WTI dropped $1.2 and is now at $94.68 after
trading as high as $98 earlier. Treasuries advanced, with the 10-year yield
down two basis points at 4.31%. Metals are mixed, gold rebound above
$4700; ags are higher. Today's macro data include the final UMich consumer
sentiment survey.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The
April flash manufacturing PMI was reported at 54.0 versus forecasts of 52.5;
the flash services PMI was 54.3 versus 50.0; the flash composite PMI was 52
versus 49.9.
The Kansas City
Fed manufacturing index was 10 versus projections of 11.
International
March Japanese CPI rose 0.4%, in line.
March UK retail
sales were up 0.7% versus consensus of +0.2%; ex fuel, they were up 0.2%, in
line; the April consumer confidence index was -25 versus consensus of -24.
The April German
business climate index was 84.4 versus expectations of 85.5; the April current
conditions index was 85.4 versus 86.0.
Other
The most positive US datapoint.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/04/jobless-claims-still-most-positive.html
The IMF’s global economic outlook.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/04/23/outlook-from-for-imf
Something is off with the oil math.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-finds-something-global-oil-math
Summary:
Kaneva finds that "something is off" with the oil
supply/demand math, and her conclusion is that "in practical terms",
oil price have to go up much more, even as product supply shrinks due to far
more demand destruction, before we reach a tentative equilibrium, one which
will result in far more pain for consumers (and yes, stocks).
Iran
Overnight news.
Monetary
Policy
Where to start on regime change.
Fiscal
Policy
I hesitated to
post this because it contains a lot of political rhetoric---which I try to
avoid in these pages. However, the recounting of the facts (assuming that they
are not political bulls**t) about insider trading points out a concern that we
all should have.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/insider-trading-by-the-trump-administration-or-its-hot-connections/
39 going to 40 trillion.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/39-going-40-trillion
Inflation
Fertilizer prices in context.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/04/fertilizer-prices-in-context
Update on inflation expectations.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/04/five-year-inflation-expectations-april-22
The
Financial System
How private credit funds disappear troubled
loans.
https://roddubitsky.substack.com/p/the-vanishing-how-bdcs-disappear
The
Dollar
The
revolt against the dollar order.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/gaza-brics-revolt-against-dollar-order
Investing
Stocks are up
because earnings are up.
https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/theres-no-puzzle-as-to-why-stocks-are-at-all-time-highs/
The cheapest Mag 7
stock.
Why the gold price is under pressure.
(3)
Precious Metals Work - by Quoth the Raven
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Why
are we so sad?
https://www.derekthompson.org/p/if-americas-so-rich-howd-it-get-so
Why thinking hard
feels bad.
https://www.psypost.org/why-thinking-hard-feels-bad-the-emotional-root-of-deliberation/
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment