The Morning Call
4/28/26
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/calm-storm-markets-go-nowhere-ahead-event-risk-heavy-week
Summary:
Despite a tsunami of headlines (politics - Trump shooting and
redistricting, geopolitics - US-Iran on again off again
talks/proposals, macro - inflation upside and growth downside
fears from supply chain disruptions, micro - AI 'throttling'
and DeepSeek price cuts... to say the least) markets generally did a
whole lot of nothing today as they endured the calm before the storm
this week. Oil up, Stocks meh, Bond yields up a smidge, Dollar
down. Bitcoin hit hard... but most of all - Semis down for the first
time this month.
Monday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Bulls are back.
https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/bulls-charge-back
Tuesday morning
setup: US equity futures are lower, dragged by tech, following a report that
OpenAI missed revenue and user targets and there growing internal pushback
against Sam Altman's notorious aggressive spending (the company has $1.5
trillion in commitment it won't be able to meet), which is hitting
semiconductors and the broader supply chain. AS of 8:15am ET, S&P futures
are down 0.7% and Nasdaq futures dropped 1.2% as concerns resurfaced over
whether the vast amounts of investment in artificial intelligence will pay off.
In pre-market trading, Semis and Mag7 are under pressure. Defensives are
leading Cyclicals ex-Energy. SoftBank, a key backer of ChatGPT’s owner,
plunged 9.9% in Tokyo. US-based OpenAI partners including Oracle and CoreWeave
fell in premarket trading. Nvidia was poised to drop 2.9% from a record
high. Meanwhile, Brent rose above $111 a barrel, with the Strait of Hormuz
still shut. Bond yields are 2-4bps higher as the yield curve flattens and
USD appreciates, following the price of oil. Commodities continue to be led by
Energy with WTI rising above $100/bbl after Trump
signaled he was unlikely to accept Iran’s latest proposal to end the conflict
which included a proposed a plan that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz while
leaving questions about its nuclear program for later negotiations. There is
material weakness in precious metals with silver’s underperformance possibly
tied to Tech weakness. Today’s macro data focus is on weekly ADP, home price
data, regional Fed activity indicators, and Consumer Confidence (though
spending has de-coupled from sentiment). US economic data calendar slate
includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am), February FHFA house price
index, S&P CS home prices (9am), April Richmond Fed manufacturing index and
Conference Board consumer confidence (10am) and Dallas Fed services activity
(10:30am)
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The
April Dallas Fed manufacturing index was -2.3 versus forecasts of -0.8.---but not as bad
as it looks.
International
The March Japanese
unemployment rate was 2.7% versus predictions of 2.6%.
Other
Some perspective on recent economic data.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/04/27/where-random-walk-data-lead
Q1 GDP set to rebound but Gulf War clouds
outlook.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/q1-gdp-set-to-rebound-but-gulf-war-stalemate-clouds-outlook/
Iran
Overnight news.
Is the war now a ‘phoney war’?
Monetary
Policy
Money
supply and credit availability continue positive.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/04/updating-long-leading-indicators-money.html
Fiscal
Policy
A solution for the social security shortfall.
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5845641-fix-social-security-now/
A
great solution to the budget deficit problem. Six percent may not be the right
number but the principle is spot on.
(3)
Rand Paul’s “Six Penny Plan” to Balance the Federal Budget in Five Years
Tariffs
Trade deficits didn’t drain US wealth; they
made more of it.
The Financial System
Private credit funds are working precisely as
they were designed to do.
Investing
The beginning of the end for Open AI?
Why
the market is shrugging off the oil shock---a less negative view of the future impact
of oil price/supply.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/04/27/hormuz-why-markets-shrugging-oil-shock
Another less
negative view.
The growing
exposure to concentration risk.
https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/101460/
Enjoy this bull
market while it lasts.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/04/an-all-time-bull-market/
Semis dislocated
from ISM survey.
Summary:
Investors are chasing the theme, regardless of how the stretched-looking rally
has pushed the SOX Index into bubble-like territory. Not only has the
index scaled the most overbought levels in over five years, it has also
completely dislocated from the ISM Manufacturing reading, a gap that
historically tends to close, one way or another.
How to build a portfolio.
https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance/how-build-portfolio-what-own-what-skip-why
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
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