The Morning Call
4/29/26
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-everything-else-down-horde-headlines-hammers-narratives
Summary:
Anxiety ahead of the hyperscalers' reporting had traders on edge and there
was plenty to trigger FAFO over FOMO as OpenAI's 'miss' triggered one
of the biggest momo meltdowns in years. Oil hit its highest since the blockade
began (initial ceasefire talks end) and everything else fell (stocks,
bond prices, gold, crypto) except the dollar (and VIX). As Goldman's Delta-One
desk-head noted earlier, caution is warranted as it's increasingly hard
to ignore the fact that stocks are at/near record highs while bonds/oil are
defiantly NOT...
Tuesday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Gold caught in the
middle.
https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/gold-caught-in-the-middle
Charts of the week.
https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/ChartsoftheWeekApr20-24-1.pdf
Counterpoint.
Wednesday morning
setup: S&P futures are flat with Nasdaq outperforming ahead of a huge day
for tech. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft, representing nearly 20% of
S&P market cap, report after the close, with traders focused on capex. The
group has a combined options implied move of more than $750 billion of market
cap in either direction. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are unchanged; Nasdaq
futures rise 0.3% amid dip buying following strong results from
Seagate, after the index slipped more than 1% in the previous session, and
the sector outperformed in Europe and Asia. In premarket trading, semis are
again seeing a strong bid post-earnings, Mag7 names are flat to down, Cyclicals
are leading Defensives driven by Energy / Industrials /
Materials. Treasury yields rose along with the dollar ahead of the Fed’s
latest interest-rate announcement at what is likely Jerome Powell’s final
meeting as chair and where the Fed will keep rates unchanged. WTI crude rose $103
while Brent jumped above $114 a barrel - approaching the highest since
the start of the Iran war - after the US signaled it would stick with
a naval blockade of Iranian ports, leaving the Strait of Hormuz
impassable. The key overnight news came from Trump’s threat of extending
the US blockade, which is boosting oil, pushing Brent to the highest in a
month, but for now Equities are blissfully interpreting this as an “escalate to
de-escalate” situation. Bond yields are near session highs, above 4.36% ahead
of today's Fed decision with no changes expected in an 11-1 vote, though there
will likely be multiple questions probing Powell’s intent to leave the Board or
to finishing his term which runs into 2028, or perhaps stay on until all
investigations are concluded. US economic data calendar slate includes
March readings for wholesale inventories, durable goods and housing starts are
due at 8:30 a.m. ET. FOMC rate decision is at 2 p.m., followed by a press
conference at 2.30 p.m. Bank of Canada rate decision is due at 9:45 a.m.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
declined 1.6% while purchase applications were up 1.1%.
Month to date
retail chain store sales were up 7.7% versus +6.7% in the prior week.
The February
housing index was 0 versus consensus of 0.2.
The
February Case Shiller home price index was up 0.4% versus expectations of
-0.2%.
February
housing starts fell 0.3% versus forecasts of -5.2%; March housing starts were
up 10.8% versus -0.7%; February building permits were up 10.9% versus -1.9%; March building permits were -10.8% versus -0.7%
March
durable goods orders were up 0.8% versus predictions of +0.5%; ex
transportation, they were up 0.9% versus +0.4%.
The April Richmond
Fed manufacturing index came in at 3 versus estimates of 2.
The
April consumer confidence index was 92.8 versus projections of 89.0.
International
April German CPI was up 0.6% versus consensus
of +0.7%.
The April EU
economic sentiment index was 93.0 versus expectations of 95.2; the April
industrial sentiment index was -7.7 versus -7.2; the
April services sentiment index was 0.9 versus 3.5; the consumer confidence
index was -20.6, in line.
Other
UAE quits OPEC.
The farm crisis---problems tend to come in
batches.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-farmers-are-facing-two-historic-catastrophes-same-time-2026
Goldman lowers consumer spending outlook.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/goldmans-state-us-consumer-outlook-gets-more-grim
Iran
Overnight news.
Monetary
Policy
A
perfect storm awaits Warsh.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/a-perfect-storm-awaits-warsh-at-the-fed/
Fiscal
Policy
Government limited by debt is the ultimate
inheritance.
Counterpoint.
https://cafehayek.com/2026/04/tamny-is-mislead-on-government-debt-by-a-collectivist-assumption.html
Inflation
ECB’s latest survey points to stagflationary
pressures.
Home sales and rents show almost no inflationary
pressures.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/04/repeat-home-sales-new-rents-continue-to.html
Treasuries not adhering to the inflation Warsh
wants.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasuries-are-not-adhering-inflation-warsh-prefers
Summary:
Ten-year yields are higher today as oil rises and are creeping back towards
their recent closing highs around 4.40%-4.43%. Treasuries traders also care
about the left of the decimal point of inflation. Except in their view that is
much closer to three than the two Warsh would like it to be.
The
Financial System
The credit bubble everyone is ignoring.
Investing
In praise of dividend
paying stocks.
https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/why-ive-changed-my-mind-about-dividend-paying-stocks
A short history of
bubbles.
https://www.albertbridgecapital.com/post/til-death-do-us-part
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
The
basics of becoming wise.
https://dariusforoux.com/the-basics-of-becoming-wise/
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
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