The Morning Call---Another private credt collapse

 

The Morning Call

 

2/27/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/software-jumps-momo-slumps-ai-dumps-most-deepseek-bonds-bullion-bid

 

            Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

January PPI was up 0.5% versus forecasts of +0.3%; core PPI was up 0.8% versus +0.3%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/surging-services-costs-spark-unexpected-surge-us-producer-prices-january

 

The February Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was 10 versus predictions of -1.

 

                        International

 

January Japanese preliminary industrial production grew 2.2% versus consensus of +5.3%; January retail sales were up 4.2% versus +1.5%; January YoY construction orders were up 5.9% versus +12.0%; February YoY CPI was +1.6% versus +1.5%; YoY core CPI was up 1.8% versus +1.7%.

 

The February UK consumer confidence index was down 19 versus expectations of -15.

 

The February German unemployment rate was 6.3%, in line; February CPI was +0.2% versus +0.5%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on credit card balance, delinquencies and collections.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2026/02/25/credit-card-delinquencies-balances-burden-credit-limits-and-collections-in-q4-2025/

 

 

                                                  Shipping industry sends signal for strong consumer demand.

  https://www.wsj.com/business/logistics/shipping-industry-sends-strong-consumer-demand-signal-for-the-year-153775ec?mod=business_lead_pos2

 

                                                  More clarity in jobless claims.

                         https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/02/more-clarity-in-jobless-claims-both.html

 

            AI

 

              The extreme and improbable economics of the Citrini AI report.

              https://www.ft.com/content/597ea81c-184f-45ab-a8c1-4306a3579ceb

 

            The Financial System

 

              Here we again: billions vaporized in another private credit collapse.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-we-go-again-billions-vaporized-spectacular-private-credit-collapse

 

     Investing

 

            Diversification is the answer to Market concentration.

            https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/stock-market-concentration-has-surpassed-its-1930s-peak-should-investors-worry

 

            The rising number of Quality stocks in the Value indices.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/02/26/quality-value

 

            Bullish momentum holds in global asset allocation.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/bullish-momentum-holds-firm-in-global-asset-allocation/

 

            Ten stocks the best money managers have been buying lately.

            https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/10-stocks-best-fund-managers-have-been-buying-recently

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        How reading books regulate your nervous system.

            https://bigthink.com/mind-behavior/how-reading-books-regulates-your-nervous-system/

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---Software's explosive setup

 

The Morning Call

 

2/26/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crypto-crashes-halo-hiccups-bullion-big-tech-bid-ahead-nvda

 

                Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            When everyone buys puts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/when-everyone-buys-puts

 

            Software’s explosive setup.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/record-underweight-massive-short-historic-oversold-softwares-explosive-setup

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 212,00 versus consensus of 215,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/record-underweight-massive-short-historic-oversold-softwares-explosive-setup

 

                        International

 

The December Japanese leading economic indicators came in at 111.0 versus projections of 110.2.

 

The February EU economic sentiment index was 98.3 versus estimates of 99.8; the February industrial sentiment index was -7.1 versus -6.1; the February services sentiment index was 5.0 versus 7.5; the February consumer confidence index was -12.2, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          February consumer confidence and sentiment.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/02/confidence-and-sentiment-february-2026

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Our ruling class has a promises problem.

              https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/america-has-very-expensive-promises-problem-bill-coming-due

 

            Recession

 

              This author thinks that a recession watch is warranted.

              https://talkmarkets.com/article/per-prof-edward-leamers-forecasting-method-a-yellow-flag-recession-watch-is-warranted-1772036709

 

            Tariffs

 

              New tariffs kick in at 10% not 15%.

              https://www.ms.now/news/trumps-new-tariffs-kick-in-at-10-not-the-15-he-threatened

 

The problem with Trump’s new claimed authority to impose tariffs (Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act).

              https://www.wsj.com/opinion/section-122-cant-carry-trumps-tariffs-5c5eee5e

 

            The Dollar

 

Is the dollar really dead? An interesting thesis, but I think that the author has the cause and effect reversed. The marginal seller of the dollar is selling it because it is depreciating in value and they want an asset that will hold its value or appreciate. The dollar is weak not because people want to own another asset but because they don’t want to own a depreciating dollar.

https://x.com/jc_paretsx/status/2025618616444686337

 

            The Financial System

 

              UBS sees the potential for cascading defaults in private equity.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/private-credit-rocked-ubs-shock-outlook-surge-cascading-defaults-and-widespread-contagion

 

            AI

 

              AI derangement syndrome.

              Update On AI Derangement Syndrome & Its Consequences

 

     Investing

 

            Nine out of 10 valuation indicators in sell territory.

                        https://www.marketwatch.com/story/9-of-the-stock-markets-10-most-watched-valuation-indicators-are-now-in-sell-territory-ebdb9d99?st=5c69ix

 

            Diversification is not just for defense.

                https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/diversification-its-not-just-for-defense-anymore-9d00f6b1?st=nxyFtY

 

            Dividend payers in the S&P 500.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/02/dividend-payers-in-s-500.html

 

            The ten immutable laws of building wealth.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/02/25/10-immutable-laws-building-wealth

 

            There is still life in the software stocks.

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-investor-says-you-can-make-good-money-off-software-stocks-if-you-trade-them-like-telephone-directories-e4d15635

 

            Bond investors are buying duration.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/bond-investors-embrace-maturity-risk-in-2026/

 

            Goldman sees five risks to the market.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-warns-equity-market-crash-biggest-risk-2026-growth-forecast

           

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            US electric power generation by source.

https://wolfstreet.com/2026/02/24/whoosh-goes-demand-for-electricity-us-power-generation-by-source-in-2025-natural-gas-coal-nuclear-wind-hydro-solar-geothermal-biomass-petroleum/

 

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---AI is an orchestration layer not a displacement

 

The Morning Call

 

2/25/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-bounces-back

 

            Tuesday n the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            From Goldman’s top trader.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-jigsaw-puzzle-particularly-difficult-right-now-top-goldman-trader

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 0.4% while purchase applications were down 5.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales were up 6.7% versus +7.2% in the prior week.

 

The December home price index rose 0.1% versus forecast of +0.3%; the December Case Shiller home price index was +0.2%, in line.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/02/24/s-p-cotality-case-shiller-index-home-prices-up-for-fifth-straight-month

 

The February consumer confidence index came in at 91.2 versus projections of 87.0.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/02/24/consumer-confidence-inched-up-in-february

 

The February Richmond Fed manufacturing index was -10 versus estimates of -4.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/02/24/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-slowed-february-2026

 

                        International

 

Q4 German GDP grew 0.3%, in line; the March consumer confidence index came in at -24.7 versus -23.1.

 

The January EU CPI was down 0.6% versus expectations of -0.5%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on Q1 nowcast.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-growth-slows-in-q4-but-early-q1-data-signals-a-rebound/

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Market bets soar that the Fed will cut rates.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-bets-soar-fed-will-cut-rates-2-2027

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The unseen debt crisis.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/02/24/there_is_a_debt_crisis_but_its_unseen_and_not_even_discussed_1166545.html

 

            Affodability

 

              Home prices versus wage growth.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/02/repeat-existing-home-prices-continue-to.html

 

            The Dollar

 

              From exceptional to average?

              https://bondvigilantes.com/blog/2026/02/the-us-dollar-from-exceptional-to-average/

 

            Tariffs

 

              Sound and fury signifying nothing.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-122-or-301-whatever-it-takes/?src=news

 

              Tariffs overturned but fundamentals still rule.

              https://www.morningstar.com/economy/dont-overreact-tariffs-overturned-fundamentals-still-rule

 

            AI

 

              AI is an orchestration layer not a displacement.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/draft-draft-do-not-publish-anthropic-event

                         

              JP Morgan agrees.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-thinks-we-may-have-hit-peak-fear-and-its-best-trade-if-we-havent

 

                  The AI boom is powering a nuclear renaissance.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/ai-boom-powering-nuclear-renaissance

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Iran war watch.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/02/iran-war-watch-trump-dithers.html

 

     Investing

 

            The rest of the world pulls ahead.

            https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/rest-of-world-pulls-ahead

 

            The latest from Citadel.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/citadel-macro-guru-outlines-two-competing-forces-driving-market

 

            Foreigners are buying not selling US securities.

            Foreigners Are Buying, Not Selling, US Securities

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2026/02/quote-of-the-day-95.php

 

                        Bonus quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2026/02/quotation-of-the-day-5297.html

 

 

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