The Morning Call--War impacts stocks less than you think

 

The Morning Call

 

3/3/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crypto-crude-extend-yesterdays-gains-bonds-stocks-see-massive-roundtrip

 

            Bull/Bear ratio giving a strong buy signal.

            https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/recent-activity/

           

            How institutions/individuals are trading this market.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kind-january-2008-feel-retail-traders-take-cover-ultra-wealthy-investors-plow-stocks-record

 

            King dollar.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cvwad6pute

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly jobless claims totaled 215,000 versus forecasts of 225,000.

 

Q4 nonfarm productivity was reported at 6.6% versus consensus of 6.7%; unit labor costs were up 0.9% versus +0.3%.

 

                        International

 

The February Japanese services PMI came in at 44.3 versus estimates of 42.7; the composite PMI was 45.8 versus 44.6; February consumer confidence was 35.3 versus 36.0.

 

The February Chinese Caixin services PMI was 50.2 versus predictions of 52.0; the composite PMI was 50.1 versus 50.8; the February German services PMI was 55.8 versus 56.6; the composite PMI was 55.6 versus 56.3; the February UK services PMI was 60.5 versus 60.8; the composite PM was 59.9 versus 60.2.

 

January EU unemployment was 6.8% versus expectations of 7.0%; January PPI was 5.2% versus 2.1%; the February EU services PMI was 55.5 versus of 55.8; the composite PMI was 55.5 versus 55.8.

 

                        Other

 

                          More Q1 GDP nowcasts.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/03/business-cycle-indicators-march-1st

 

                          January real disposable income per capita.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/03/02/real-disposable-income-per-capita-down-again-in-january

 

                          Americans added $1 trillion in new debt last year.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/03/02/americans-added-1-trillion-in-new-debt-last-year

 

                          Weaponizing the dollar carries risks.

                          https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/596116-the-weaponization-of-finance-may-threaten-the-future-of-the-dollar-standard

           

The Fed

 

  Powell kills 50bps funds rate hike in March.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-slip-rate-hike-odds-rise-after-powell-prepared-remarks-released

           

              The latest Beige Book finds spending slowed, inflation rose---not exactly news.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beige-book-finds-spending-slowed-inflation-rose-march-shortages-increased

 

            Inflation

 

              Russian invasion confronts ECB with inflation dilemma.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/eurozone-inflation-climbs-to-fresh-high-as-russian-invasion-confronts-ecb-with-dilemma-11646215595

           

            Geopolitics

 

              China won’t join Russian sanctions.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-wont-join-west-sanctioning-russia-top-banking-regulator-warns

 

            China

 

US updating its China trade policy---missing in this article is any mention of   Chinese theft of US intellectual property which is one of their most egregious offenses.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-says-it-is-realigning-its-china-trade-policy-11646150650?st=05xe8cflieo5l01&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

    Bottom line.

 

            Update on valuations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/03/02/the-q-ratio-and-market-valuation-february-update

 

February dividends by the numbers.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/03/dividends-by-numbers-in-february-2022.html#.Yh-4cujMKUk

 

            War impacts stocks less than you think.

            https://ritholtz.com/2022/03/war-impacts-stocks-less-than-you-think/

 

            Bear market strategies.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bear-market-strategies-are-you-ready

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) declares $1.26/share quarterly dividend, 5.9% increase from prior dividend of $1.19.

 

Kroger press release (NYSE:KR): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.91 beats by $0.17.

Revenue of $33.05B (+7.5% Y/Y) beats by $390M.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Ukraine is not Taiwan.

            https://reason.com/2022/02/28/ukraine-is-not-taiwan/

 

            I thought that this was interesting---the case of the missing Russian air force.

            https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force

 

            How rock’n’roll broke up with booze and drugs.

            https://www.theguardian.com/music/2022/feb/25/hard-partying-bands-are-the-outliers-now-how-rocknroll-broke-up-with-booze-and-drugs

 

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