The Morning Call--The price of oil and the Fed

 

The Morning Call

 

3/15/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/carnage-china-breaks-apple-cracks-key-support-yields-soar-rate-hike-odds-surge

 

            Is this just another average drawdown?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/reflections

 

CLO defaults begin.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/credit-has-cracked-and-now-cdo-defaults-begin

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew slightly less rapidly than in the prior week.

 

February PPI came in at +0.8% versus predictions of +0.9%; core PPI was   +0.2% versus +0.6%.

                       

                          The March NY Fed manufacturing index was -11.8 versus estimates of +7.

 

                        International

                         

January/February Chinese YoY industrial production was reported at +4.7% versus forecasts of +3.9%; Jan/Feb YoY retail sales were up 6.7% versus +3.9%; Jan/Feb YoY fixed asset investments were +12.2% versus +5.0%; the February unemployment rate was 5.5% versus 5.1%.

 

The January UK unemployment rates was 3.9% versus expectations of 4.0%; January average earnings were up 4.6%, in line.

 

January EU industrial production was flat versus projections of +0.1%; March economic sentiment was -38.7 versus +10.3.

 

March German economic sentiment was -39.3 versus consensus of +10.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on six high frequency economic indicators.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/03/six-high-frequency-indicators-for_14.html

 

                          The rising recession risk and the inflation narrative.

                          https://www.pragcap.com/three-things-i-think-i-think-rising-recession-risk/

 

            The Fed

 

              The price of oil and the Fed.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/03/oil-prices-and-inflation

 

              Will the US and UK raise rates despite the threat to growth?

              https://www.ft.com/content/f0a6303f-336b-49e8-a253-f21a101dd029

 

              More on the Fed’s dilemma.

              https://ritholtz.com/2022/03/normalization-vs-inflation/

              Part two.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/suffocating-impact-higher-rates-will-force-fed-ease-much-sooner-expected

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              This gem from the third highest elected official in our country.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/nancy-pelosi-wtf-comment-day-government-spending-reduces-debt

           

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) declares $0.62/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

  Bottom line.

 

            Should investors fear a yield curve inversion?

            https://www.evidenceinvestor.com/should-investors-fear-a-yield-curve-inversion/

 

            Or an earnings reversion?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/03/14/an-earnings-reversion-is-coming

 

                Or a recession?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/03/11/another-strange-recession

 

            Ed Yardini on valuations.

            https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/recent-activity/

 

            Estimating future stock returns.

            https://alephblog.com/2022/03/11/estimating-future-stock-returns-december-2021-update/

 

What I am reading today

 

            Tuesday morning humor.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jjcAuEYW9M

 

 

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