The Morning Call---Has the bubble already deflated?

 

The Morning Call

 

3/4/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-bid-stocks-crude-crypto-crumble

 

            A 2018 analogy.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/c0-a2ffsll

 

            Europe under siege.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/extremestress

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

January factory orders were up 1.4% versus consensus of +0.7%; ex transportation, they were up 1.0% versus +0.2%.

 

The February services PMI came in at 56.5 versus projections of 56.7; the composite PMI was 55.9 versus 56.0.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/03/03/february-markit-services-pmi-sharp-upturn

 

The February ISM nonmanufacturing index was 56.5 versus forecasts of 61.0.

                           https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/03/03/ism-services-report-growth-in-february

 

February nonfarm payrolls increased 678,000 versus expectations of +400,000.

                                  https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/february-payrolls-smash-expectations-surging-678k-highest-july

 

                        International

 

The January German balance of  trade was +E3.5 billion versus estimates of+E9.2 billion; the February construction PMI was 54.9 versus 54.6.

 

January EU retail sales rose 0.2% versus predictions of +1.3%; the February constriction PMI was 56.3 versus 56.4.

 

The February UK construction PMI was 59.1 versus consensus of 57.5.

 

                        Other

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Biden’s plan to reduce inflation does just the opposite.

              https://reason.com/2022/03/02/bidens-protectionist-trade-agenda-will-increase-prices-in-fact-it-already-has/

 

              More evidence that high levels of government debt impede economic growth.

              https://www.evidenceinvestor.com/should-investors-fear-rising-public-debt/

 

            Inflation

 

              Affordability of new homes resumes decline.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/03/affordability-of-new-homes-in-us.html#.YiEG2-jMKUk

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Tidbits that we are not getting form the mainstream media.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/03/ukraine-war-highlights-tensions-in-putins-objectives-will-he-win-the-war-and-lose-the-peace.html

 

              Russian GDP prospects visualized.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/03/russian-gdp-prospects-visualized

 

     Bottom line.

 

            More on valuations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/03/03/p-e10-february-2022-update

 

            Has the bubble already deflated?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/03/03/has-the-bubble-already-deflated

 

            Eugene Fama on the war and market volatility.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/business/ukraine-putin-markets.html

 

            Three investing lessons from the Russian stock market collapse.

            https://www.pragcap.com/three-lessons-from-the-russian-stock-market-collapse/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Medtronic (NYSE:MDT) declares $0.63/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.