The Morning Call
3/14/22
The
Market
Technical
It
was another volatile week that witnessed a change in the S&P’s technical
picture; to wit, the index successfully challenged the lower boundary of its short
term trading range and reset to a downtrend. It still has the 23.6% Fibonacci
retracement level as very near in support. However, if it breaks that, then
~3800 is likely in our future.
The biggest pain
trade.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ca07mbeig1
Like everything
else, bonds were active last week. In TLT’s case, it voided a very short term
uptrend and appears about to challenge the lower boundary of it short term
trading range---for the third time. The more times this support level holds,
the stronger it becomes.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/chjmmbl6ne
Credit
is cracking.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/credit-cracking
Gold did its best
Titan III impression last Tuesday, pushing up to its all-time high and nearing
the upper boundary of its short term uptrend then immediately reversed itself
and filled both those gap up opens---which is actually a positive for the
longer term. Despite the late in the week softness, my assumption is that it is
going higher. As I noted last week, if it can break though that all-time and
remain there, then there is nothing standing in the way of 3000-4000/oz.
Nothing in the dollar’s
story has changed, i.e., there is nothing on the horizon that would suggest a
weaker dollar. Plus, last week it managed to fill both of those gap up opens,
leaving it free to push higher. My assumption remains that irrespective of what
happens, investors continue to believe that the dollar is a safe place to be.
Friday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-stocks-commodities-crushed-because-putin
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
Review of last Week
Last week was an
extremely slow one with regards to economic data. For all intents and purposes,
the US stats were mixed with no primary indicators reported. Ditto, overseas.
There is no way
one can draw any kind of meaningful conclusion from these results---so I won’t.
The outlook remains: the economy is
struggling to grow, hampered by irresponsible monetary and fiscal policies,
getting no support from the global economy and threatened by (1) seemingly
mounting inflationary forces and (2) continued supply chain disruption as a
result of the conflict in Ukraine.
Goldman slashes
2022 GDP forecast.
US
International
February German PPI came in at +1.7% versus estimates
of +2.0%.
Other
The problem with
the labor market is not too few workers, it is too low wages.
Can you say, ‘counterparty risk’?
The Fed
Bretton Woods III?
Fiscal Policy
Four thousand earmarks in the latest budget
act.
Inflation
Yellen says another year of ‘uncomfortably’
high inflation.
Geopolitics
It
is not only Russia that will be hurt by those sanctions.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/rickards-sanctions-boomerang-putins-options
Bottom line.
150
years of S&P earnings and dividend yields.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Archeologists
have found Shackleton’s shipwreck.
https://slate.com/technology/2022/03/shipwreck-shackleton-archaeology-discovery.html
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