The Morning Call---Where will inflation peak?

 

The Morning Call

 

1/13/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dollar-dumped-after-soaring-cpi-crypto-crude-jump

 

            More evidence of trouble in stock land.

            https://americanconsequences.com/greg-diamond-more-evidence-a-crash-is-coming/

 

            The corporate cash pile continues to grow.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/chdmyahaje

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Jobless claims totaled 230,000 versus estimates of 200,000.

 

The December budget deficit was $21 billion versus predictions of $25 billion.

                          

December PPI was reported at +0.2% versus expectations of +0.4%;    core PPI was +0.5%, in line.

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

The Fed released its January Beige Book. No surprises. Here is a summary.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-beige-book-sees-continued-easing-shortages-warns-omicron-linked-slowdowns

 

                          Emerging markets pose potential problem for global financial system.

                          https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/589013-as-emerging-markets-economic-prospects-darken-us-policymakers-should-pay

 

                                                  The World Bank is worried about declining economic growth in 2022.

                          https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59946302

 

            The Fed

 

              Central banks will drive the global economy in 2022.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-01-12/central-banks-not-covid-will-drive-global-economies-in-2022?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                        Inflation

 

              Where will inflation peak?

              https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/12/business/economy/cpi-inflation-december-2021.html

               

Here is yet another article in which monetary velocity plays a key role in the     forecast for growth and inflation. The problem with this author’s thesis, I think, is that he assumes velocity is constant; and we already know that it is not.

                   https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/interest-rates-still-cannot-rise-heres-why

 

 

     Bottom line.

 

            Speculative mania.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/01/12/speculative-mania-was-2021-the-peak

 

            Value stocks rally.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-12/cliff-asness-says-too-early-to-gloat-over-value-stock-revival?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                        If you really want to get pessimistic.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-war-and-inflation-and-rate-hikes

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) declares $1.04/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2022/01/bonus-quotation-of-the-day-720.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email

 

            Single issue fanatics.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/bernard-levin-told-us-to-beware-the-single-issue-fanatics

 

 

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