The Morning Call
1/27/22
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-puke-powell-hints-sooner-faster-qt
The change in
margin debt versus the S&P.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cayzoldi-y
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly jobless claims totaled 260,000, in
line.
The preliminary Q4
GDP growth rate was 6.9% versus estimates of 5.5%; the price index was up 7.0%
versus +6.0%.
December durable goods orders fell 0.9% versus predictions of -0.5%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/december-us-durable-goods-orders-tumbled-most-2020-covid-collapse
December new home
sales rose 11.9% versus expectations of a 3.2% decline.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/01/26/new-home-sales-up-11-9-in-december
International
December YoY UK auto
production fell 12.7% versus projections of -16.3%.
December YoY
Chinese industrial profits were up 34.3% versus consensus of +35.0%.
February German
consumer confidence came in at -6.7 versus forecasts of -7.8.
Other
Who owns the US national debt?
The
Fed
The major headline
of the day was the conclusion of the January FOMC meeting, its formal statement
of policy and the follow up press conference of Chair Powell. My summary is as
follows: (1) the FOMC policy statement was a bit more dovish than I had
expected, mainly because of the vagueness of the Fed’s intentions with respect
to shrinking its balance sheet [QT], though it did suggest that several rate hikes
in the 2022 were coming; however, (2) in Powell’s press conference, he was much
more hawkish in his assessment of where the economy is [i.e., inflation higher,
labor higher] and the Fed’s intentions to remedy that [i.e. the Fed balance sheet
is far to large and needs to be substantially reduced, though admittedly vague about
timing of such].
The FOMC red line
statement along with some analysis.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/fed-warns-soon-be-appropriate-raise-rates-qe-ends-march
You know where I come
to on this: the Fed has never in its
history made a successful transition from easy to neutral monetary policy. And
it failed again this time. The Fed has put itself in a corner from which there
are no good alternative to escape, which is say that it is now having to
tighten just as the economy is starting to slow.
Geopolitics
The US responds to Russia’s security concerns.
The Pentagon backtracks.
Russia/Ukraine uphold cease fire.
China
China’s ‘plunge protection team’ comes to the
rescue.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinas-national-team-rushes-save-stocks-after-bear-market-signaled
Bottom Line.
Stability begets
instability.
https://ritholtz.com/2022/01/stability-begets-instability/
Right sizing your
risks.
Are you investing
or speculating?
https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/are-you-investing-or-merely-speculating
It is never a
market crash problem.
https://www.safalniveshak.com/never-a-market-crash-problem/
The stock market
fall and long term investors.
https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/01/stock-market-fall-and-long-term.html
More advice for investing
in a down market.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/25/business/stocks-hold-or-sell.html
The Market decline
is a test for what is real and what is not.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
McDonald's press release (NYSE:MCD): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of
$2.23 misses by $0.11.
Revenue of $6B (+13.0% Y/Y) misses by $30M.
Sherwin Williams press release (NYSE:SHW): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of
$1.34 misses
by $0.01.
Revenue of $4.76B (+6.0% Y/Y) in-line.
Altria press release (NYSE:MO): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.09 beats by
$0.01.
Revenue of $5.09B (+0.8% Y/Y) beats by $90M.
Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) declares $0.88/share quarterly dividend, in line with
previous.
What
I am reading today
JFK revisited.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/jfk-revisited-through-looking-glass-oliver-stone
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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