The Morning Call
1/20/22
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-surge-equity-purge-escalates
The S&P closed
below (1) the lower boundary of its short term uptrend for the second day; if
it ends there today, it will reset to a trading range. However, remember that the
index broke its short term uptrend numerous times in 2021, only to reestablish
an uptrend in short order. So, at the moment, this shouldn’t be a big concern; on
the other hand (2) its 100 DMA; if it finishes there on Friday, it will revert
to resistance. Unlike the short term uptrend, the S&P has consistently
bounced off its 100 DMA for over a year. Hence, if it successfully challenges
this MA and follows through to the downside, it would be a very concerning
development, technically speaking.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/technical-sell-signal-100-hit-rate-dip-buyers-triggered
NASDAQ looks ready
to bounce.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cflxqhtwmr
Is
the VIX telling us this decline is over, at least in the short term?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cj1x7ilzdu
The
dollar or the bubble?
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly jobless
claims were reported at 286,000 versus forecasts of 220,000.
The January Philadelphia
Fed manufacturing index came in at 23.2 versus predictions of 20.0.
International
The
December Japanese trade balance was -Y582.4 billion versus consensus of -Y784.1 billion.
December
German PPI was +5.0% versus estimates of +0.8%; December EU CPI was +0.4%, in
line.
Other
A contrarian
forecast.
https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/01/17/weekly-market-pulse-a-very-contrarian-view/
The December architectural
billing index was up.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/01/aia-architecture-firms-end-2021-on.html
Regime change in the global economy (must read)---I
do wonder why the author so casually
dismisses the potential cheap labor pool in Africa.
The Fed
I have forever
lamented the negative consequences of QE---one of the more important being the mispricing of risk. Here
is a great article on the subject.
Correlation versus causation.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/correlation-doesnt-imply-causation
Forecasting Fed policy in 2022.
Inflation
Barry Ritholtz parses inflation
https://ritholtz.com/2022/01/inflation-the-elephant/
China
China’s looming property crisis threatens
economic stability.
Geopolitics
Tensions remain high in Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60048395
The
coronavirus
New study shows boosters ineffective at
protecting against the omicron variant.
Bottom line.
Is tech as
overvalued as it was in 2000?
https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/detail/recent-activity/
Buy Alert
I have spent a
good deal of time and ink documenting the deteriorating breadth in the Market. The
net result is that the stocks of some companies have been getting clocked while
the indices are barely off their highs. The point being that the stocks of a
number of companies in our Universe have entered their Buy Level Zone. Accordingly,
at the open today:
The
Dividend Growth Portfolio will make purchases of one half positions in Healthcare
Services Group (HCSG--$18) and Calavo Growers Inc (CVGW-$43).
The
High Yield Portfolio will purchase a one half position in Unum Group Co
(UNM-$27).
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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