Tuesday, January 25, 2022

The Morning Call and Buyer Alert

 

The Morning Call

 

1/25/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ppt-rescues-sp-worst-ever-start-year-rate-hike-odds-tumble

 

            Is this the ‘bounce’?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bloodstreet

 

            Maybe….

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-prime-asks-are-we-there-yet-and-answers

 

            The correction to continue.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ciy-lhbb14

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The November Case Shiller home price index was reported up 1.1% versus forecasts of +0.8%.

 

The January flash manufacturing PMI came in at 55.0 versus estimates of 56.7; the flash services PMI was 50.9 versus 55.0; the composite PMI was 50.8 versus 56.7.

 

                        International

 

The January German business climate index was 95.7 versus expectations of 94.7; the January current conditions index was 96.1 versus 96.3.

 

The Q1 UK business optimism index was -9 versus consensus of +5; Q1 industrial trends index was 24 versus 22.

 

                        Other

 

              Gasoline sales down 8.9% YoY.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/01/21/gasoline-volume-sales-down-8-9-yoy

 

              Six high frequency indicators for the economy.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/01/six-high-frequency-indicators-for_24.html

 

The Fed

 

  The Fed’s dilemma.

  https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-tries-match-economic-risks-against-markets-rush-tighten-2022-01-24/

 

  Is the Fed put dead?

  https://seekingalpha.com/article/4481002-the-fed-put-is-dead

 

  Why the Fed won’t raise rates as much as expected.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-fed-wont-hike-rates-nearly-much-expected

 

Geopolitics

 

  What is next for Ukraine?

  https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2022/01/whats-next-for-ukraine.php

 

              The latest on US/Russia negotiations.

  https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/01/john-helmer-content-analysis-of-secretary-blinken-at-geneva-reveals-psychopathological-incapacity-to-negotiate-with-russia.html

                                       

 

  US considering military deployments near Ukraine.

  https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/defense-secretary-presents-biden-options-us-response-russia-rcna13240

 

China

 

  China’s debt problem.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-builds-27-empty-new-york-cities

 

 Beijing’s dilemmas.

  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/01/21/beijings-dilemmas

 

            The coronavirus

 

              The covid narrative is crumbling.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/01/covid-the-narrative-is-crumbling.html

 

     Bottom line.

 

            Have a strategy---this investor is using buy limit orders.

            https://thereformedbroker.com/2022/01/24/indiscriminate-selling/

 

            Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2022/01/why-am-i-losing-money-in-market.html

 

Reframing volatility.

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/01/24/reframing-volatility/

 

            The end of FOMO.

            https://howardlindzon.com/the-end-of-fomo-fear-of-missing-out/

 

            A poisoned chalice.

            https://investoramnesia.com/2022/01/23/a-poisoned-chalice/

 

     Buyer Alert

 

As the Market continues to push lower, additional equities in our Universe are falling into their Buy Value zone. Yesterday,

 

The Aggressive Growth Portfolio initiated a one half position in Logitech Int’l (LOGI-$74).

 

The High Yield Portfolio initiated a one half position in Petmed Express Inc (PETS-$23)

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

            Funding (education/social) services.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/funding-services

 

            The Tonga volcano blast ‘the biggest thing that we have ever seen.’

            https://www.npr.org/2022/01/21/1074438703/nuclear-test-monitor-calls-tonga-volcano-blast-biggest-thing-that-weve-ever-seen

 

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