The Morning Call--What Quantitative Tightening will look like

 

The Morning Call

 

1/7/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crypto-carnage-continues-mortgage-rates-soar-dow-gives-2022-gains

 

            2021 in the charts.

            https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/2021-the-year-in-charts

           

            Yield matters (again).

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/again

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          November factory orders rose 1.6% versus consensus of +1.5%.

 

The December ISM nonmanufacturing index came in at 62.0 versus projections of 66.9.

                       

December nonfarm payrolls increased 199,000 versus forecasts of 400,000; the unemployment rate fell to 3.9% versus 4.1%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/december-payrolls-huge-miss-again-just-199k-jobs-added-fewest-december-2020

 

                        International

 

November Japanese household spending fell 1.2% versus estimates of +1.2%; November YoY average earnings were flat versus +0.1%; December YoY core CPI was +0.5%, in line.

 

The November German trade balance was +E12.0 billion versus expectations of +E14.2 billion; November industrial production declined 0.2% versus +1.8%.

 

November EU retail sales were up 1.0% versus forecasts of -0.5%; December flash YoY CPI was +5.0% versus +4.7%; December economic sentiment was 118.3 versus 116.0’ December industrial sentiment was 14.9 versus 13.9; December consumer confidence was -8.3, in line.

 

The December UK construction PMI was 54.2 versus predictions of 54.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          November median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/01/median-household-income-in-november-2021.html#.YddBCmjMKUk

 

            The Fed

 

              Goldman and JP Morgan on the latest FOMC minutes.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-spooked-markets-so-badly-todays-fed-minutes-jpmorgan-goldman-explain

 

              What it could mean longer term.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/surge-real-yields-story-so-far-2022-what-does-it-mean

 

A scathing commentary on the Fed from the most liberal economist in my network.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/01/the-fed-sets-out-to-kill-the-economy-to-save-it.html

 

                  What Quantitative Tightening will look like (must read).

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/heres-what-feds-quantitative-tightening-will-look

 

     Bottom line.

           

            Tailwinds shifting to headwinds.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tailwinds-shift-headwinds-2022

 

            December dividends by the numbers.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/01/dividends-by-numbers-in-december-2021.html#.YddCbGjMKUk

 

                More on valuations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/01/06/is-the-market-still-overvalued

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            What gambling can teach us about investing.

            https://americanconsequences.com/kim-iskyan-learning-from-poker-part-one/

 

 

                        Ninety-nine fascinating finds in 2021.

            https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/99-fascinating-finds-revealed-in-2021-180979281/

 

                        Why things don’t compute.

            https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/does-not-compute/

 

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