Wednesday, January 12, 2022

The Morning Call---Selected forecasts for 2022

 

The Morning Call

 

The Market

 

    Technical

              

               Tuesday in the charts.

               https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-bonds-big-tech-bullion-bid-powells-goldilocks-testimony

 

               Global bond markets brace for supply floodgates to open.

               https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-11/wary-global-bond-markets-brace-for-the-supply-floodgates-to-open?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications rose 1.4% while purchase applications were down 0.1%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew less rapidly than in the prior week.

 

December CPI came in at +0.5% versus forecasts of +0.4%; core CPI was +0.6% versus +0.5%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-consumer-prices-soar-fastest-39-years-real-wages-tumble-9th-straight-month

 

                        International

 

November EU industrial production was up 2.3% versus estimates of +0.5%.

 

December Chinese CPI declined 0.3% versus consensus of +0.2%.

 

                        Other

 

The Fed

 

  The Fed’s policy shortfall.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-funds-rate-around-4-we-may-have-moved-brash-new-era

 

 Inflation

 

  The affordability of new homes continues to  decline.

  https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/01/affordability-of-new-homes-continues.html#.Yd3NeWjMKUk

 

For those concerned about monetary policy, this article is great to compare and contrast with the thesis laid out in the Scott Grannis one I linked to in Monday Morning Chartology. The issue here is not whether someone will buy US bonds---the author certainly makes a great case for why there will always be demand them. The issue is if investors are fearful of inflation, they won’t want to hold money (bonds) but rather buy goods (meaning the velocity of money will accelerate), driving the prices of goods up (inflation) and they will have to sell those bonds at lower prices (higher interest rates) to pay for those goods.

https://www.pragcap.com/who-will-buy-the-bonds/

 

The coronavirus

 

  A thought on vaccines.

  https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/01/where-are-the-variant-specific-boosters.html

 

              If you doubted the covid headlines you were correct.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/it-turns-out-if-you-doubted-covid-headlines-you-were-correct

 

                  The covid survival rate for those under twenty is 99.9987%.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/covid-survival-rate-under-20s-999987-stanford-epidemiolgy-prof-study

 

     Bottom line.

           

            More insight from Barry Ritholtz.

            https://ritholtz.com/2022/01/the-post-normal-economy/

 

            Paul Tudor Jones warns.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/paul-tudor-jones-warns-major-shift-will-have-serious-consequences-markets

 

            The latest from Morgan Stanley.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-are-two-things-can-crush-feds-hiking-plans

 

            The latest from Jeff Gundlach.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/i-feel-young-again-jeff-gundlach-annual-just-markets-webcast-live

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

As you know, I believe that monetary and fiscal policies over the last decade have unfairly benefited the rich. The solution is to change the policies not to confiscate the wealth.

https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/sorry-claudia-billionaires-have-the-right-to-exist

 

            IRS warns of a messy tax season.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/10/business/income-tax-day-deadline.html

 

            Weather and climate disasters are declining globally.

            https://reason.com/2022/01/07/weather-and-climate-disasters-are-declining-globally/

 

 

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