The Morning Call---More change than just rate hikes

 

The Morning Call

 

 

1/28/22

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/angry-stocks-come-terms-hawkish-fed-yield-curve-screams-policy-error

 

            Stress spreading beyond equities.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/clahwjc2ve

 

            Inflation breakevens, TIPS and term spreads.

            https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/01/breakeven-and-tips

 

            The dollar is king.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/doubt

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          December pending home sales dropped 3.5% versus estimates of -0.2%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/01/27/pending-home-sales-fell-in-december

 

December personal income was up 0.3% versus consensus of +0.5%; December personal spending was -0.6%, in line; the December PCE price index was +0.4%, in line; core PCE price index was +0.5%, in line.

 

The January Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was reported at 20 versus projections of 12.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/01/27/kansas-city-fed-survey-activity-expanded-in-january

 

                        International

 

                          Q4 flash German GDP growth was -0.7% versus expectations of -0.3%.

 

                          January Japanese CPI was +0.5% versus forecasts of +0.9%.

 

The January EU economic sentiment index came in at 112.7 versus predictions of 114.5; the January industrial sentiment index was 13.9 versus 15.0; the January services sentiment index was 9.1 versus 10.3; January consumer confidence was -8.5, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          Two shortages that threaten the economy.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/two-shortages-threaten-absolutely-eviscerate-global-economy-2022

 

            The Fed

 

              More change than just rate hikes.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-27/fed-s-projected-rate-hike-isn-t-the-only-change-behold-the-data-driven-era?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Goldman’s president blasts Fed.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/goldmans-no-2-complains-overly-political-fed-does-not-have-will-stop-inflation

 

              Former Dallas Fed chief Fisher says Powell not coming to the rescue.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-fisher-market-must-take-beer-goggles-because-powells-not-coming-rescue

 

            Inflation

 

              Kraft Heinz raises prices on dozens of products.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/kraft-heinz-again-raises-prices-dozens-products-inflation-continues-bite

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Why Putin has not been deterred.

              https://townhall.com/columnists/victordavishanson/2022/01/27/why-putin-has-not-been-deterred-n2602433

 

              Tensions in Ukraine are deescalating.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ruble-russian-markets-rebound-after-foreign-ministry-says-war-ukraine-unthinkable

 

              Demographics and insurgency.

              https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/01/who-will-fight.html

 

              Overcoming recency bias.

              https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/01/overcome-your-recency-bias.html

 

     Bottom line.

 

            P/E’s and forward earnings.

            https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/detail/recent-activity/

 

            Another doomsday prediction from Jeremy Grantham.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-26/grantham-has-an-even-scarier-prediction-than-his-crash-call?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Rewards are proportional to the risks taken---if you are lucky.

            https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/heavy-above-the-line

 

            Blood in the streets.

            https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/01/27/theres-blood-in-the-streets/

 

            JP Morgan: not enough capitulation.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-not-enough-capitulation-call-bottom

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) declares $0.22/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            The regulatory state is killing property ownership.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/the-regulatory-state-is-killing-property-ownership

 

            The new space telescope reaches its destination.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/science/james-webb-telescope-arrival.html

 

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