The Morning Call--What if interest rates don't matter?

 

The Morning Call

 

3/3/21

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rkt-takes-big-tech-black-gold-bitcoin-buck-stall-out

 

            Is a head and shoulders forming in the ‘hot’ stocks.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/c5giawo4yi

 

            Is latest bullishness a contrary indicator?

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-02/wall-street-bullishness-close-to-flashing-contrarian-sell-signal?srnd=premium

 

            Which assets are overheating as liquidity collapses?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/temperature-check-which-asset-are-overheating-liquidity-collapses

 

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications rose 0.5% while purchase applications were up 2.0%.

 

The February ADP private payrolls report showed job increases of 117,000 versus predictions of 177,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/goods-sector-jobs-tumble-most-april-adp-employment-gains-slow-february

 

                        International

 

                          The January EU PPI was 1.4% versus forecasts of 1.2%.

 

The February Japanese services PMI was 46.3 versus 46.1 recorded in    January.

 

The February Chinese Caixin services PMI was 51.5 versus 52.0 reported in January; the composite PMI was 51.7 versus 52.2 in January.

 

The February EU services PMI was 45.7 versus consensus of 44.7; the EU composite PMI was 49.8 versus 48.1; the German services PMI was 45.7 versus 45.9; the German composite PMI was 51.1 versus 51.3; the UK services PMI was 49.5 versus 49.7; the UK composite PMI was 49.6 versus 49.8.

                               

                        Other

 

                          January median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2021/03/median-household-income-in-january-2021.html#.YD59yuhKiM8

 

                          Over 11 million families at risk of losing housing.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/03/cfpb-over-11-million-families-at-risk.html

 

                          Housing prices up 10% YoY in January.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/03/corelogic-house-prices-up-100-year-over.html

 

            The Fed

 

              The Market demands more stimulus.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-demands-further-intervention-gimme-moar-stimmie

 

            Inflation

 

              Shortages everywhere you look.

              https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/03/shortages-everywhere-you-look/

           

  Stagflation cometh.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/stagflation-cometh

 

            Bottom line

 

              Update on valuations.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/03/02/the-q-ratio-and-market-valuation-february-update

                  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/03/02/is-the-stock-market-cheap

           

              What if interest rates don’t matter?

              https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/02/what-if-interest-rates-dont-matter-as-much-as-we-think/

 

              Buy the dip in bonds.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/guggenheims-minerd-powell-has-made-it-clear-buy-dip-bonds

 

                  Gold is dead.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/gold-dead-move-billionaires-bet-bitcoin-draper-sees-5mm-price

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Blindspot bias.

            https://incognitomoneyscribe.com/2021/03/02/minding-your-blind-spots/

 

 

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