The Morning Call--Unwelcome food inflation

 

The Morning Call

 

3/2/21

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Yesterday’s notable pin action occurred in (1) the S&P which regained the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend, voiding last Thursday/Friday’s break.  That keeps it above both DMA and in uptrends across all time frames.  Thank you, Mr. Powell, and (2) the long bond was pounded again but held above the lower boundary of its short term trading range, leaving that level as support.

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-crypto-bond-yields-surge-amid-commodity-purge

 

            Are we bullish enough yet?

            https://thereformedbroker.com/2021/03/01/only-took-12-years-but-wall-street-has-finally-gotten-bullish-enough/

 

            How worrisome is the rise in interest rates?

            https://www.pragcap.com/how-worrisome-is-the-rise-in-interest-rates/

               

            BofA says 1.75% the tipping point for bonds.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bofa-175-tipping-point-bonds

 

            Bond market calling Fed’s bluff.

             https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bond-market-calls-feds-bluff-biggest-short-ever

 

            Beware the great commodity bull.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/c9j8qhclrp

 

            Is the worst over for the dollar?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/czpvocr995

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                           

                            Month to date retail chain store sales declined less than in the prior week.

 

The February manufacturing PMI was 58.6 versus forecasts of 58.5.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/03/01/february-markit-manufacturing-production-growth-near-six-year-peak-but-price-gauge-highest-since-2011

 

The February ISM manufacturing index was 60.8 versus predictions of 58.8.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/03/01/february-ism-manufacturing-index-continued-expansion

 

January construction spending rose 1.7% versus consensus of +0.8%.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/03/construction-spending-increased-17-in.html

 

                        International

 

The January Japanese unemployment rate was 2.9% versus expectations of 3.0%.

 

January German retail sales fell 4.5% versus estimates of -0.3%.

 

The February EU flash CPI came in at 0.2%, in line with the January reading.

 

                        Other

                         Why the economy will run hot, then crash.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sugar-rush-why-economy-will-run-hot-then-crash

                            

                          Framing lumber prices doubled YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/03/update-framing-lumber-prices-more-than.html

 

                          Update on seven high frequency indicators.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/03/seven-high-frequency-indicators-for.html

 

            The Fed

 

              The Fed can’t force outcomes that the Market rejects.

   https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2021/02/28/the-federal-reserve-cant-force-outcomes-that-market-forces-reject/?sh=5f390af54e08

 

              Why this QE is different.

              https://global-macro-monitor.com/2021/02/25/why-this-qe-is-different-in-one-chart/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The economy risks a speeding ticket.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/26/business/biden-stimulus-overheat-economy.html

 

                Inflation

 

              Are inflation fears justified?

              https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/long-term-inflation-risks-central-banks-globalization-by-kenneth-rogoff-2021-03?utm_source=project-syndicate.org&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=authnote&

 

                  Central banks will happily ignore inflation mongers.

              https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-economy-central-banks-analysis/analysis-central-banks-will-happily-ignore-inflation-mongers-idUSKCN2AT1KL

 

                  Unwelcome food inflation.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/unwelcoming-food-inflation-outpaces-inflation-and-incomes-destabilization-risks

 

                Bottom line

 

            What happens is bitcoin succeeds?  Substitute ‘gold’ for ‘bitcoin’ in this article and decide how valid his thesis is.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/02/what-happens-if-bitcoin-succeeds.html

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

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