The Morning Call--Technicals back a critical juncture

 

The Morning Call

 

3/5/21

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

           

            The technicals continue to hover around critical support levels.  Yesterday, the long bond ended below the lower boundary of its very short term trading range, voiding that trend.  Minor support exists around four points lower; if that gives, then it is another 19 points to the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend.  With the Market worried about rising interest rates, this is clearly not a good sign.

 

            The S&P finished below the lower boundary of its short term uptrend for the second day; if it closes there today, it will reset to a trading range.

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-plunges-markets-disorder

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                          

                            January factory orders rose 2.6% versus consensus of +2.1%; ex                           were up 1.7% versus 1.9% in December.

 

                        International

 

                        Other

              

                          Median new home price decouples from median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2021/03/median-new-home-prices-decouple-from.html#.YEEqoWhKiUk

 

                                                   OPEC leaves production unchanged.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-spikes-opec-meeting-starts-saudi-oil-minister-urges-supply-caution

                              

                                                   Nowcasts project strong Q1 GDP growth.

                          http://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economic-growth-estimates-for-q1-rise-sharply/

 

 

                               The Fed

 

                 Powell delivers a nothing burger.

                 https://www.ft.com/content/1feb5449-76f0-4f67-85b2-ab03f05d5a65

 

               Fiscal Policy

 

                 Will the stimulus package cause inflation?

                 https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/will-the-1-9-trillion-stimulus-package-cause-runaway-inflation

 

               Inflation

 

                 Food price inflation accelerates.

                 https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/food-price-inflation-accelerates-ninth-consecutive-month-could-trigger-destabilization

 

              The coronavirus

 

                Which experts were right?

                https://spectator.org/covid-lockdowns-experts/

 

              Bottom line

 

                The latest from Jim Grant (must read).

                 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jim-grant-fed-has-left-us-bond-market-thats-all-destroyed

 

              More on valuations.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/03/02/is-the-stock-market-cheap

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/03/03/market-cap-to-gdp-an-updated-look-at-the-buffett-valuation-indicator

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Kroger (NYSE:KR): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.81 beats by $0.13; GAAP EPS of -$0.10 misses by $0.79.

Revenue of $30.74B (+6.4% Y/Y) misses by $50M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Photos from Mars.

            https://www.bbc.com/news/in-pictures-56238018

 

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