The Morning Call--Biden's new spending plan

 

The Morning Call

 

3/30/21

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crypto-jumps-small-caps-dump-archegeddon-hits-banks-bonds-bullion

 

            The validity of seasonal trading patterns.

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/april-has-been-bullish-for-stocks-but-you-shouldnt-bet-on-a-repeat-this-year-11616745891?mod=home-page

 

            Bond seasonality is turning bullish.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2021/03/29/dont-look-now-but-bond-seasonality-is-turning-bullish

 

Bonds and bullion dumped as cryptos and the dollar rally.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-are-being-dumped-bitcoin-dollar-surge

 

US yields surging further.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/c1d-oguboq

 

How a blowup at a hedge fund is rattling markets.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-29/goldman-block-trade-what-to-know-about-bill-hwang-viacom-discovery-stock-sale?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

And a behind the curtain look at how the above happened.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-goldman-and-morgan-stanley-broke-ranks-and-triggered-biggest-margin-call-lehman

 

 

            Buffett indicator screaming sell.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cqomz5sy6y

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The March Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at 28.9 versus 17.2 recorded in February.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/03/29/march-dallas-fed-manufacturing

 

                        International

 

                        The February Japanese unemployment rate was 2.9% predictions of 3.0%.

 

March EU consumer confidence came in at -10.8, in line; industrial sentiment was 2.0 versus 0; services sentiment was -9.3 versus -14.4.

 

March German CPI was +0.5%, in line.

 

                        Other

                       

                          The March regional Fed banks manufacturing survey.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/03/29/march-regional-fed-manufacturing-overview

           

                          Framing lumber prices continue to rise sharply.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/03/update-framing-lumber-prices-up-sharply.html

 

                          Long live debtism.

                          https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2021/03/24/capitalism-is-dead-long-live-debtism/

           

                          Survey of inflation expectations.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/03/a-bunch-of-year-ahead-inflation-forecasts

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

Biden to introduce major spending bill Wednesday.  Even though I am not in general all that positive about more big government spending programs, there are circumstances under which they can be a plus.  One, if they finance infrastructure spending (i.e., projects that improve the national productivity---roads, bridges, airports, etc.).  Two, if they are paid for with something besides more debt (i.e., taxes).  The current narrative out of the administration is that most of the spending is for infrastructure and that it intends to pay for those projects with tax increases.  Of course, the current narrative lacks specifics on both; so, my point here is that it is too soon to say whether Biden’s plans would be good or bad fiscal policy. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-float-3-trillion-plan-wednesday-moderate-dems-push-back-tax-hikes-pay-it

 

            Inflation

 

              Inflation is always a political choice,

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inflation-always-political-choice

 

            Bottom line

                

              Anything can happen.

              https://allstarcharts.com/anything-can-happen/

 

              Is the SPAC bubble about to burst?

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/03/ponzis-go-boom.html

 

              Stock buybacks soar.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/zero-lessons-learned-stock-buybacks-soar-all-time-high

 

              The positives and negatives of a transaction tax.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2021/03/29/macroview-could-a-transaction-tax-be-a-good-thing

 

              Ed Yardini raises his outlook for 2021/22 S&P earnings and year end valuation.

              http://blog.yardeni.com/2021/03/high-octane-earnings.html

           

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

FactSet Research Systems (NYSE:FDS): FQ2 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.72 misses by $0.01; GAAP EPS of $2.50 misses by $0.08.

Revenue of $391.79M (+6.0% Y/Y) in-line.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Human creativity is boundless.

            https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/03/maine-markets-in-everything-those-new-service-sector-jobs.html

 

            Thirty of the best nature photos from the Tokyo International Foto awards (must   see).

                        https://www.boredpanda.com/tokyo-international-foto-awards-nature-winners-tokyofotoawards/?utm_source=ritholtz&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=organic

 

 

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