The Morning Call--Multiple technical challenges occurring again

 

The Morning Call

 

3/4/21

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            The S&P once again broke below the lower boundary of its short term uptrend; if it remains there through the close on Friday, it will reset to a trading range.  In addition, the long bond ended below the lower boundary of its very short term trading range; if it remains there through the close today, the trend will be voided.  Clearly, investors still have the willies.  Let’s see how this plays out.

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-battered-hindenburg-omen-strikes

 

            Is the puke coming?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/c5qw7ew7b8

 

            NASDAQ breaks critical support level.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nasdaq-crashes-through-critical-resistance-gives-march-gains

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Q4 nonfarm productivity fell 4.2% versus expectations of -4.7%.

                              

                          Weekly jobless claims rose 745,000 versus projections of 750,000.

                             

The February services PMI was 59.8 versus estimates of 59.9; the   composite PMI was 59.5 versus 58.8; the February ISM nonmanufacturing index was 55.3 versus 58.7; February light vehicle sales were 15.7 million versus 16.1 million in January.

 

                        International

 

January EU retail sales declined 5.9 versus forecasts of -1.1%; the January unemployment rate was 8.1% versus 8.3%; the February construction PMI was 45.0 versus December’s 44.1.

 

The February German construction PMI was 41.0 versus consensus of 46.6; the February UK construction PMI was 53.3 versus 51.0.

 

February Japanese consumer confidence was 33.8 versus 29.6 reported in January.

 

                        Other

 

The Fed

 

The Fed released its latest Beige Book.  The most notable feature was it is starting to notice (drum roll, please)………inflationary pressures.  Who woulda thunk?

      https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beige-book-escalates-inflation-warning-sees-most-prices-rising-moderately-some-notably

 

 

Fiscal Policy

 

  Bringing back earmarks would be a mistake.

  https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/03/dear-congress-bringing-back-pork-would-be-a-disaster/

 

Inflation

 

  Inflation comes for the profligate.

  https://lawliberty.org/inflation-comes-for-the-profligate/

 

  The opposite of 2008.

  https://www.epsilontheory.com/the-opposite-of-2008-2/

 

  The game is changing.

  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2021/03/03/inflation-the-game-has-shifted-from-limbo-to-hurdles

 

  The Fed versus the market.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-high-could-inflation-soar-coming-months-and-what-will-fed-do

 

Speculation

 

  Everyone is talking bubbles. Is it time to act?

  http://www.capitalspectator.com/everyones-talking-bubbles-is-it-time-to-act/

 

The coronavirus

 

  The idiotsy of the lockdown (must read).

  https://www.aier.org/article/lockdowns-could-reshape-american-politics-for-a-generation-or-several/

 

Bottom line

 

  More on valuations.

  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/03/03/regression-to-trend-another-look-at-long-term-market-performance

 

   February dividends by the numbers.

  https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2021/03/dividends-by-numbers-in-february-2021.html#.YEAS4WhKiUk

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Brown-Forman (NYSE:BF.B): FQ3 GAAP EPS of $0.45 beats by $0.02.

Revenue of $911M (+1.3% Y/Y) beats by $8.71M.

 

General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) declares $1.19/share quarterly dividend, 8.2% increase from prior dividend of $1.10.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

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