The Morning Call
4/27/20
The
Market
Technical
The S&P took a
break last week, consolidating in a fairly narrow range. As you know, I am watching how it completes
this new trading range for directional information.
The latest from Goldman.
This week I am
presenting long term charts of TLT, GLD and UUP to give you sense of just how
powerful their long term trends are. As
you can see, TLT has not just pushed through its prior all-time high but also the
upper boundary of its long term uptrend.
Thank you QEInfinity and fear of depression (courtesy of the economic shutdown).
GLD remains in an
uptrend dating from 2016 and has gotten stronger since mid-2019. The recent spike is likely tied to fears of
inflation (courtesy of QEV) and/or depression (courtesy of the economic
shutdown).
UUP’s chart isn’t
quite as upbeat as TLT and GLD.
Nonetheless, the dollar is near its all-time high, is in a solid uptrend
dating back to 2018 and recently broke out of a well defined pennant formation
to the upside.
While the VIX has
mirrored stocks’ performance since the March low, the magnitude of its move
down has been relatively subdued---suggesting the level of uncertainty remains
high. On the other hand, note that it
made a new low on Friday while the indices remain below recent highs---perhaps
a sign that stocks will move out of their current consolidation to the upside.
Fundamental
Headlines
Overnight update
on coronavirus.
Update on oil.
The Fed versus
reality.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
International
March
YTD Chinese industrial profits fell 36.7% versus estimates of -48.7%.
Other
What
I am reading today
Thoughts on how the coronavirus
bailout money is being spent (must read):
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