The Morning Call
4/13/20
The
Market
Technical
Last week was a
good one for the S&P. It (1) reset
is short term trend from down to a trading range, (2) developed a very short
term uptrend and (3) blew through a key Fibonacci level [2750]. That drives a nail in my thesis that the
bottom has not been made. Next
identifiable resistance is now its 100 and 200 day moving averages.
The long bond
declined fractionally last week.
Certainly not enough to bring into question is current uptrend. And with the Fed now having issued a ‘put’ on
even the lowliest credits, it seems reasonable to assume that the trend in
prices (rates) remains up (down).
In
its fourth try, GLD pushed through the upper boundaries of its short term and
very short term uptrends, though it did so on a gap up open (which needs to be
filled). At least some of that upward
pressure was prompted by inflationary fears growing out of an out of control
federal budget and a Fed willing to buy anything that walks, talks and is
remotely connected to the credit market.
That suggests more upside.
The
dollar’s week was less exciting than that of the S&P, TLT and GLD; though
it wasn’t bad enough to impact its overall positive technical picture. UUP is now in a race with other global
currencies over whose host country can devalue its own currency faster and more
thoroughly. I believe that the dollar
will fare reasonably well in this contest since much of the global debt is
denominated in dollars; and with every central bank buying anything that looks
like a bond, they are going to need dollars to do so.
I get nothing,
information wise, from the VIX. I was a
bit surprised that it wasn’t off more in the face of the news from the Fed; but
not enough to make me question the strength of the current rally.
Fundamental
Headlines
***overnight
update on coronavirus.
More coronavirus
data.
We can’t print our
way out of a crisis.
Goldman on the OPEC
oil production cut.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
International
Other
What
I am reading today
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