Friday, April 24, 2020

The Morning Call---Japan joins the central bank money fest


The Morning Call

4/24/20

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages  (23515, 2797) started Thursday on their front foot, then faded late in the trading session ending with the Dow up slightly and the S&P down slightly.  So, there was little change in the technical picture, leaving the very short term question, will the indices recoup last Friday’s highs and regain their upward momentum or will they fall short and make a low lower than Tuesday’s? 

TLT, GLD and UUP moved up yesterday, all finishing in uptrends.  GLD was the standout, making a new high.  Safety trades---which is somewhat at odds with equities’ pin action.
           
            Thursday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines
                  
            Now that we are getting solidly into the April stats, the economic impact of the shutdown is becoming manifest.  Yesterday, the April flash manufacturing, services and composite PMI’s along with April new home sales, the April Kansas City Fed manufacturing index and weekly jobless claims were really awful.

About the ‘V’ shaped recovery.
                   
            Fitch warns of record loan defaults.

           Overseas the April Japanese, German, EU and UK flash manufacturing, services and composite PMI’s were all disappointing.  In addition, the Q2 UK business optimism index was well below estimates.
           
            ***overnight update on coronavirus

            The Fed

            The Fed is trying to contain the zombie apocalypse it created (must read).
           
            They will wreck the economy if they have to.

            Bank of Japan joins the Fed and ECB in QEV, i.e. buying anything than looks like a security.
                       
            Bottom line:  ‘as you know, I have a list of stocks that have suffered severe whackage since the February high; and I bought positions in some of them late in the March decline.  I am not inclined to resume any buying until stocks make a solid test of the March low.’
           
            Ten features of the post coronavirus investment landscape.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
           

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            The April flash manufacturing PMI was 36.9 versus estimates of 38.0; the services PMI was 27.0 versus 31.5; the composite PMI was 27.4 versus 34.2.

            April new home sales were down 15.4% versus consensus of down 15.0%.


Even wealthiest applicants are being turned down by mortgage lenders.

            The April Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was reported at -62 versus forecasts of -32.

                March durable goods orders fell 14.4% versus an anticipated decline of 11.9%; ex defense, they were -15.8% versus -8.6%.
                    
                    

     International

            The February Japanese all industry activity index came in at -0.6% versus expectations of -0.7%; March CPI was flat versus -0.2%.

            March UK retail sales fell 5.1% versus projections of -4.0%; ex fuel, they were -3.7% versus -3.5%.

    Other

Credit card issuers cutting credit to customers.

EU summit flops.

What I am reading today

A new kind of war (must read):
           

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