The Morning Call
4/24/20
The
Market
Technical
The Averages (23515, 2797) started Thursday on their front
foot, then faded late in the trading session ending with the Dow up slightly
and the S&P down slightly. So, there
was little change in the technical picture, leaving the very short term question,
will the indices recoup last Friday’s highs and regain their upward momentum or
will they fall short and make a low lower than Tuesday’s?
TLT, GLD and UUP
moved up yesterday, all finishing in uptrends.
GLD was the standout, making a new high.
Safety trades---which is somewhat at odds with equities’ pin action.
Thursday
in the charts.
Fundamental
Headlines
Now
that we are getting solidly into the April stats, the economic impact of the
shutdown is becoming manifest. Yesterday,
the April flash manufacturing, services and composite PMI’s along with April
new home sales, the April Kansas City Fed manufacturing index and weekly
jobless claims were really awful.
About the ‘V’
shaped recovery.
Fitch warns of record loan
defaults.
Overseas the April Japanese, German,
EU and UK flash manufacturing, services and composite PMI’s were all
disappointing. In addition, the Q2 UK business
optimism index was well below estimates.
***overnight
update on coronavirus
The
Fed
The
Fed is trying to contain the zombie apocalypse it created (must read).
They will wreck
the economy if they have to.
Bank
of Japan joins the Fed and ECB in QEV, i.e. buying anything than looks like a security.
Bottom line: ‘as you know, I have a list of stocks that
have suffered severe whackage since the February high; and I bought positions
in some of them late in the March decline.
I am not inclined to resume any buying until stocks make a solid test of
the March low.’
Ten
features of the post coronavirus investment landscape.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
The
April flash manufacturing PMI was 36.9 versus estimates of 38.0; the services
PMI was 27.0 versus 31.5; the composite PMI was 27.4 versus 34.2.
April
new home sales were down 15.4% versus consensus of down 15.0%.
Even wealthiest applicants
are being turned down by mortgage lenders.
The
April Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was reported at -62 versus forecasts
of -32.
March
durable goods orders fell 14.4% versus an anticipated decline of 11.9%; ex defense,
they were -15.8% versus -8.6%.
International
The
February Japanese all industry activity index came in at -0.6% versus
expectations of -0.7%; March CPI was flat versus -0.2%.
March
UK retail sales fell 5.1% versus projections of -4.0%; ex fuel, they were -3.7%
versus -3.5%.
Other
Credit card
issuers cutting credit to customers.
EU summit flops.
What
I am reading today
A new kind of
war (must read):
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