The Morning Call
4/20/20
The
Market
Technical
The S&P’s
spike off its 3/23 low remains intact.
Given the steepness of this advance and its overbought condition, some
consolidation shouldn’t be a surprise.
As you can see, the next significant resistance level exists at the
100/200 DMA’s.
Friday’s pin
action notwithstanding, the long bond had a good week. Indeed, it is in uptrends across all
timeframes and would have to fall all the way back to its 100/200 DMA’s before
experiencing any challenge to its upward momentum.
GLD had a
disappointing week. But the good news is
that (1) it is in uptrends across multiple timeframes and (2) it remained above
the upper boundaries of its short term and very short term uptrends. The bad news is that it is challenging an
uptrend off the March 13th
low; although given the strength of that ascent, it is not surprising
that GLD is taking a rest.
Ignoring those
huge up/down spikes in early March, the dollar has been developing a pennant formation
since then. And as you can see, it is
very close to the point of that pennant.
The technical axiom is that a break from that point will presage a big
move in the direction of the break.
The VIX has
mirrored stock prices since the March 23rd low with the notable
difference being the magnitude of its drop does not match that of the rise in
equities, suggesting that uncertainty is dissipating somewhat slower than
normal.
Fundamental
Headlines
***overnight
update on coronavirus.
Jeffrey Snider on
the Fed ‘put’.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
The
March Chicago Fed national activity index came in at -4.19 versus forecasts of
-4.0.
International
The
February EU trade balance was +E23 billion versus expectations of +E17.5
billion.
March
German PPI was -.8% versus consensus of -.7%.
Other
What
I am reading today
Another casualty of
political correctness.
A star spotted orbiting a
black hole.
Where did this comet come
from?
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