The Morning Call
4/21/20
The
Market
Technical
The Averages (23560, 2823) got whacked yesterday. The S&P ended right on the lower boundary
of its very short term uptrend while the Dow finished below (if it remains
there through the close today, that trend will be voided). My assumption remains that the indices are
headed for a challenge of their 100/200 DMA’s; but as I noted in the Closing
Bell, their current rate of ascent simply isn’t sustainable. So, any consolidation is to be expected; but
probably not enough to halt upward momentum.
TLT, GLD and UUP
were up. TLT and GLD remain in solid uptrends,
while UUP appears to be breaking out of a pennant formation to the upside. This performance suggests the need for safety.
QE and gold.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/central-banks-have-pumped-annualized-234-trillion-financial-system
Monday in the
charts.
Fundamental
Headlines
One datapoint
yesterday. The March Chicago Fed national activity index came in slightly lower
than anticipated.
The economic data
is about to get weird.
Overseas,
the February EU trade balance and March German PPI were better than expected.
The
coronavirus
***overnight
update.
Another view of the
coronavirus math.
A slightly different
take.
The beginning of the
end of the shutdown.
Lockdown socialism
will collapse.
Sweden versus the
rest of Europe.
Why herd immunity
matters.
The coronavirus
drives barrage of new lobbying activity.
Oil
What happened
yesterday?
Why politicians
should leave the oil market alone.
What is next?
The June contract
is now plunging.
Bottom line: the good news is that steps are being taken to
re-open the US economy. The bad news is that it will likely take a long time,
the risk exists of a rebound in the disease following the re-opening, there is
still no treatment or vaccine for the virus and no one has a clue about the permanent
changes that will occur in consumer social/spending habits.
So, the current
upward Market momentum notwithstanding, I think that any further progress to
the upside will likely be erratic. Plus,
even though I have been proven wrong so far, the risk remains of a test of the
March 23rd low should any of the aforementioned unknowns prove more
negative than currently discounted. I have no intent of chasing stock prices in
that environment.
Overvalued?
Ditto.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of
$0.89 beats by $0.14; GAAP EPS of $0.84 beats
by $0.14.
Revenue of $4.16B (-9.0% Y/Y) misses by $130M.
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
Month
to date retail chain store sales declined from the prior week.
International
February
UK average earnings were up 2.8% versus consensus of +3.0%.
The
April EU economic sentiment index was reported at 25.2 versus estimates of
-62.0; the German index was 28.2 versus -42.3.
Other
Hotel occupancy
rates decline to all-time low.
What
I am reading today
What do I do now?
Quote
of the day.
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment