The Morning Call
4/6/20
The
Market
Technical
The S&P had a
rough week. That is the bad news. The hopeful news is that it appears to be
struggling to make a higher low---which could mean that the bottom has been
made. ‘Could’ being the operative word. As you know, I doubt that scenario; but I could
be wrong. Follow through.
The
long bond moved up last week, heading for a challenge of its all-time high. The Fed shoveling money into the financial system
certainly helps TLT’s performance; but given the pin action in GLD and UUP, its
value as a safety trade is also likely.
Gold had a decent
week---flat versus lower equity prices. The
good news is that it is solidly in very short term and short term uptrends and
above both DMA’s. The not so good news
is that it is near the upper boundaries of the aforementioned uptrends; and
those boundaries have offered resistance which suggests that GLD’s rate of
ascent will be governed by the rate of increase of those boundaries.
The dollar also
had a good week. Its chart remains
positive.
If you are looking
for a plus for equities, the VIX chart gives it to you. In a week during which stock prices were
down, the VIX was also down. That
implies that the level of uncertainty among investors is declining. To be clear, the VIX remains elevated,
indicating a high level of concern; but directionally, last week, it suggests risk
is slowly dissipating.
Fundamental
Headlines
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coronavirus update.
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News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
International
February
German factory orders fell 1.4% versus expectations of -2.4%; its construction
PMI was 42 versus 47; the February EU construction PMI was 33.5 versus 44.
March
Japanese consumer confidence came in at 30.9 versus estimates of 36.6.
Other
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