The Morning Call--the US's loss of privilege

 

The Morning Call

 

10/3/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-shrug-shutdown-day-2-bitcoin-rips-gold-dips

 

                Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-trader-says-something-very-strange-going-market

 

The short term technicals in gold are getting iffy.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/down-candles-hanging-man-shooting-star-gold-trouble

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

The August Japanese unemployment rate was 2.6% versus forecasts of 2.4%.     

 

The August EU PPI was -0.3% versus expectations of 0.0%.

 

The September Japanese services PMI was 53.3 versus estimates of 53.0; the composite PMI was 51.3 versus 51.1; the September German services PMI was 51.5 versus 52.5; the composite PMI was 52.0 versus 52.4; the September EU services PMI was 51.3 versus 51.4; the composite PMI was 51.2, in line; the September UK services PMI was 50.8 versus 51.9; the composite PMI was 50.1 versus 51.0.

 

         

                       

 

                        Other

 

                          The consensus has been wrong since January.

                          https://www.apolloacademy.com/we-in-the-economics-profession-need-to-look-ourselves-in-the-mirror/

 

                          Inflation adjusted home prices below 2022 peak.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-27.html

 

                          Another problem with those pesky statistics.

                          https://www.ft.com/content/4efed04a-0871-491e-b0ee-2665b418e5d3

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The debate over the shutdown:

 

                        GOP: https://issuesinsights.com/2025/10/01/you-call-this-a-shutdown/

                        Dems: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/30/opinion/government-shutdown-republican-obamacare.html

 

              Evidence of the US’s loss of privilege.

              https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/privilege-lost

 

 

            Tariffs

 

This is a great description of the benefits of free trade. What it fails to consider is (1) theft of US intellectual property, (2) other countries exploiting minorities to produce cheap goods, (3) other countries expecting the US to pay for their defense and (4) congress’s unwillingness to raise tax revenue sufficient to cover its spending.

              https://www.kiteandkeymedia.com/videos/international-trade-comparative-advantage-imports-exports-specialization/

 

                  Though this author thinks item (4) above is a ‘rounding error’.

                  https://reason.com/2025/10/02/the-government-shutdown-is-a-distraction-from-our-37-trillion-debt/

 

                This author doesn’t.

            https://wolfstreet.com/2025/10/01/tariff-cash-keeps-rolling-in-record-30-billion-in-september/

 

     Investing

 

A statistical look at equities’ performance in September, October and the fourth quarter.

https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/a-quarter-for-the-history-books-now-what-2/

 

            September dividends by the numbers.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/10/dividends-by-numbers-in-september-2025.html

 

            Update on valuations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/10/02/buffett-valuation-indicator-market-cap-gdp-september-2025

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/10/01/pe10-market-valuation-september-2025

                https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/10/01/qratio-market-valuation-september-2025

                https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/10/01/regression-to-trend-s-p-composite-193-above-trend-in-september

 

                        Current S&P Q3 and Q4 earnings estimates.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/making-sense-of-current-earnings-expectations?post=525150

 

 

                        Debt, the Fed and the bullish case for gold.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/10/02/nomi-prins-debt-fed-bullish-case-gold-silver

                       

            The number one cognitive bias.

            https://almossawi.substack.com/p/cognitive-biases-investing-barry-ritholtz

 

                        What is the stock market discounting?

            What Is The Stock Market Discounting?

 

                        Goldman client survey finds AI FOMO off the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-client-survey-finds-ai-fomo-charts-year-end-performance-panic

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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The Morning Call---Is this time different?

 

The Morning Call

 

10/2/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-celebrate-government-shutdown-surging-new-record-high

 

                Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            GDX goes parabolic.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/magnificent-miners-go-parabolic

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The September manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1 versus estimates of 49.0.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/10/01/sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-september-2025

 

The September ISM manufacturing index was 52.0, in line.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/10/ism-manufacturing-index-continues-to.html

 

September light vehicle sales totaled 16.4 million versus expectations of 16.2 million.

 

                        International

 

                          The August EU unemployment rate was 6.3% versus consensus of 6.2%.

 

The September Japanese consumer confidence index was 35.3 versus projections of 35.5.

 

                        Other

 

                          The economy is strong and inflation is high.

                          https://www.apolloacademy.com/the-economy-is-strong-and-inflation-is-high/

 

                          Update on new home affordability.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/10/new-home-affordability-little-changed.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Why spending cuts must take center stage.

              https://www.civitasinstitute.org/research/the-deficit-trap-why-spending-cuts-must-take-center-stage

 

     Investing

 

            Likely adjustments in 2026 social security benefits.

            https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/09/29/social-security-surprise-retirees-2026/86025646007/

 

            Is this time different?

            https://www.ft.com/content/362d4eb2-ac10-4b76-960a-a11a18495851

 

            The venture capital AI valuation mania.

            https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/30/ai-makes-past-hype-cycles-look-tame-pitchbook-on-the-stunning-venture-capital-mania-for-ai/

 

            For those who believe in crypto.

            https://www.ft.com/content/b3fa2647-df40-4ccd-9283-18edc8321870

 

            Why is the stock market up? (hint: earnings)

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/09/why-is-the-stock-market-up-so-much-in-the-2020s/

 

            FOMO can’t last forever.

            https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2025/10/fomo-cannot-last-forever.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The decline of thinking people.

            https://www.derekthompson.org/p/the-end-of-thinking

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call--Are stocks in a bubble?

 

The Morning Call

 

10/1/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/tech-jumps-trannies-dump-rate-cuts-spark-golds-best-month-14-years

 

                Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Citadel’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/equities-sit-critical-inflection-point-citadel-flows-guru-warns-breadth-remains-key-tell

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

             

                        US

                          

Weekly mortgage applications fell 12.7% while purchase applications were down 1.0%.

 

August job openings (JOLTS report) totaled 7.22 million versus consensus of 7.1 million.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/30/jolts-report-job-openings-august-2025

 

The September Chicago PMI was 40.6 versus predictions of 41.0.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/30/chicago-pmi-contracts-for-22nd-consecutive-month

 

The September consumer confidence index came in at 94.2 versus forecasts of 95.0.

                           https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/30/consumer-confidence-drops-to-5-month-low-in-september

                                                    

The September ADP private payrolls report showed a decline in jobs of 32,000 versus expectations of an increase of 40.000.

                                                     https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/adp-payrolls-unexpectedly-crater-32000-worst-march-2023-and-below-all-estimates

                                                    

 

                        International

 

The Q3 Japanese large manufacturers index was reported at 14 versus estimates of 15; the small manufacturers index was 1, in line; the large nonmanufacturers index was 34 versus 35.

 

The September Japanese manufacturing PMI was 48.2 versus projections of 48.4; the September German manufacturing PMI was 49.5 versus 48.5; the September EU manufacturing PMI was 49.8 versus 49.5.

 

The September EU flash CPI was up 0.1%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          August median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/09/median-household-income-in-august-2025.html

 

                          Trump’s impact on GDP trajectory.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/09/trump-shock-on-gdp-vs-core-gdp

 

                          Trade policy uncertainty.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/09/confirmed-uncertainty-about-trade-policy-rises

 

                          Unwinding a phenomenon that wrecked the housing market.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/29/the-lock-in-effect-and-mortgage-rates-update-on-unwinding-a-phenomenon-that-wrecked-the-housing-market/

 

                          Subdued sentiment limits the upside for US economic growth.

                          https://talkmarkets.com/content/subdued-sentiment-limits-the-upside-for-us-growth?post=525686

 

                          What is misleading about GDP (ignore the pitch for gold).

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/gdp-illusion-why-economic-growth-losing-its-meaning

 

            Overnight News

 

The US government shut down at midnight for the first time since 2019 — and the third under Donald Trump — after Democrats blocked a Republican stopgap funding package. There were no signs of a resolution forthcoming.

 

The White House pulled the nomination of EJ Antoni to lead the BLS. Brian Quintenz is also no longer Trump’s pick to chair the CFTC, after weeks of speculation about his stalled candidacy.

 

Republican lawmakers said that China won’t begin purchasing US agricultural products anytime soon after a closed-door briefing. As part of the fallout from Trump’s trade war, China has yet to book a single shipment of US soybeans this season, fueling anxiety among farmers as this year’s harvest moves ahead. China is the world’s largest soybean importer.

 

US trade representative Jamieson Greer has warned that Washington will continue to hit its trading partners with tariffs even if some are ruled illegal by the Supreme Court later this year. The Supreme Court is set to hear cases brought by businesses challenging Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs in the first week of Nov.

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              201,000 Federal employees let go since January 1.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/09/30/201000_federal_employees_let_go_since_january_is_a_good_start_1137856.html

 

              A reality check on government shutdowns.

              https://www.axios.com/2025/09/29/stock-market-government-shutdown-trump-unemployment

 

              Make America capitalist again.

  https://www.newsobserver.com/opinion/us-viewpoints/article312268811.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawNH2U9leHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFBakF4MGptVWlHUEQzZmY0AR7Hj8-wQAjqFM528WydzPAlc2OZszTzM04qb7U3VSoCwT1O83HQxSYt0YyKHA_aem_oWB-BHQeqUgvfDJOKUxyDA

 

              The war on HB 1 visas.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-30/h-1b-visa-war-has-a-new-front-and-bipartisan-support?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          An interesting concept: shrink the budget by cutting taxes.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/09/30/the_power_broker_in_robert_moses_lived_the_lie_of_spending_cuts_1137491.html

 

            Inflation

 

              A falling dollar puts upward pressure on inflation.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/upward-pressure-on-inflation-from-the-lower-dollar/

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Israel/Hamas problem solved?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/implications-are-profound-trump-may-have-helped-resolve-key-global-conflict

           

     Investing

 

            Are stocks in a bubble?

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/are-stocks-in-a-bubble/

 

            Using required minimum distributions to improve your retirement portfolio.

            https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance/yes-rmds-can-improve-your-portfolio

 

            Assessing gold’s portfolio utility.

            https://www.deshaw.com/library/worth-its-weight

 

            Another look at what is driving gold prices.

            Who Is Driving Gold Prices? | ZeroHedge

 

            Watch the Fed.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/30/watch-fed

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Paychex press release (NASDAQ:PAYX): FQ1 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.22 beats by $0.02.

Revenue of $1.54B (+16.7% Y/Y) in-line.

 

Nike press release (NYSE:NKE): Q1 GAAP EPS of $0.49 beats by $0.22.

Revenue of $11.7B (+0.9% Y/Y) beats by $710M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Inside the murder plot that changed the course of history.

            How Franz Ferdinand's assassination changed the course of history | National Geographic

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.