The Morning Call
10/30/25
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
Wednesday in the technical stats (again note
the weak breadth).
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
In Goldilocks melt
up, Goldman addresses the three bears.
The fast money is
mostly out of gold and silver.
https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/fast-money-mostly-out-gold-and-silver
The gold puke
pause.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-puke-pause
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
September pending
home sales were flat with August versus an anticipated rise of 1.3%.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/10/29/pending-home-sales-flat-september-2025
International
Q3 German flash
GDP growth was 0.0% versus forecasts of +0.1%; October preliminary CPI was 0.3%,
inline.
Q3 EU flash GDP
growth was +0.2% versus expectations of +0.1%; the September unemployment rate
was 6.3%, in line; the October economic sentiment indicator was 96.8 versus
95.5; the October industrial sentiment indicator was -8.2 versus -10.0; the
October services sentiment indicator was 4.0 versus 3.4; the October consumer
confidence indicator was -14.2, in line.
Other
September multi-family delinquency rate
increased.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/fannie-and-freddie-single-family.html
October
regional Fed bank summaries of goods production.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/10/october-regional-feds-summary-of-goods.htm
Overnight News
The Senate votes 50-46 to block Trump’s
tariffs on Canada (this action, the second in as many days after the Senate
voted to remove Trump’s Brazil tariffs, is most likely symbolic since it likely
will not pass in the house).
Senate Majority
Leader John Thune said Wednesday he expects to engage “pretty soon” with a
group of rank-and-file Senate Democrats about ending the 29-day-and-counting
government shutdown. If a meeting happens, it would be a rare bipartisan
gathering involving a top party leader.
The Bank of Japan
kept interest rates steady on Thursday, with its governor sending the strongest
signal yet that a rate hike was possible as soon as December depending on the
outlook for wages next year.
Trump ordered
nuclear weapons trials in response to Russia’s recent tests of nuclear-powered
underwater drones and cruise missiles. The US’s last nuclear explosive test was
in 1992.
Monetary Policy
The FOMC wrapped
up its October meeting, followed by a Powell press conference. Below summarizes
most of the salient points (rate cut, end of QT) from this event. However, it
fails to convey the more hawkish tone of Powell comments. He raised serious
doubts about a December rate cut (odds have dropped substantially) and voiced
more concern than in the recent past about inflation. Markets didn’t like it
though not to the point of a major decline. Nonetheless, it raises just one
more concern about stock prices at current levels.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-31
Ed Yardini’s take.
Tariffs
US/China
strike ‘tactical’ trade deal.
Investing
Memory is the next
AI bottleneck.
Another analyst
argues that the Santa Claus rally may not happen (but BTFD).
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/10/29/what-spook-markets
Is it really a
bubble?
https://www.ft.com/content/e65579d3-f513-44f4-91e0-246fefe66e4c
Markets face a
defining week.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Altria press
release (MO): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.45 in-line.
Revenue of
$5.26B (-1.5% Y/Y) misses by $50M.
Microsoft press
release (MSFT): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $4.13 beats by
$0.47.
Revenue of
$77.67B (+18.4% Y/Y) beats by $2.28B.
What
I am reading today
Prediction
markets are very accurate.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/10/prediction-markets-are-very-accurate.html
Quote of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2025/10/quotation-of-the-day-5177.html
Why aren’t
smart people happier?
https://www.theseedsofscience.pub/p/why-arent-smart-people-happier
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