The Morning Call---A timeline for the impact of the trade war

 

The Morning Call

 

5/2/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/may-day-may-day-may-day-bonds-bullion-yay-day-stocks-crypto

 

            Thursday in market stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/sectors-heat-map

 

            The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/more-constructive-top-goldman-trader-notes-different-flavor-flows-after-metamsft

 

            The one scenario nobody wanted.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-scenario-nobody-wanted-nomura-warns-equities-trade-nasty

 

            The VIX likely near a bottom.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/vix-here-not-much-lower

 

Are stocks pricing in a recession more aggressively than bonds? (remember the bond market is usually better at forecasting)

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/are-stocks-pricing-recession-more-aggressively-bonds

               

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          March construction spending fell 0.5% versus forecasts of +0.2%.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/05/construction-spending-decreased-05-in.html

 

                          The April manufacturing PMI came in at 50.2 versus predictions of 50.7.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/05/01/sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-april-2025

 

                          The April ISM manufacturing index was 48.7 versus estimates of 48.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/05/01/ism-manufacturing-pmi-contracts-april-2025

 

April nonfarm payrolls were up 177,000 versus expectations of 130,000.

               

                        International

 

The March EU unemployment rate was 6.2% versus consensus of 6.1%; the final April manufacturing PMI was 49.0 versus 48; the April flash CPI was +0.6% versus +0.4%.

 

                        Other

 

                          March median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/05/median-household-income-in-march-2025.html

 

            Overnight News

 

China said Friday it was weighing starting talks with the U.S. to halt a trade war, but only if Washington shows sincerity through concrete measures such as by canceling tariffs against Beijing.

 

China has started to exempt some goods from tariffs that may cover about $40 billion, or a quarter of its imports from the US, to soften the blow of the trade war on its own economy.

 

Japan’s chief negotiator expressed hopes of reaching a trade agreement with the US in June, even as a media report indicated the two sides remained at odds on the key issue of its car exports.

 

US President Trump is planning to release his FY 2026 budget on Friday, according to Axios. It was separately reported that President Trump is to propose slashing USD 163bln in government programs in budget blueprint.

 

America’s money managers are more bearish today than they have been in nearly 30 years. Barron’s latest Big Money poll of professional investors finds 32% of respondents bearish on the outlook for stocks over the next 12 months—the highest percentage since at least 1997.

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              In the next 100 days we will know how Trump handles the national debt,

              https://thehill.com/opinion/5274148-trump-debt-tax-cuts/

 

            Inflation

 

              Inflation is in the revisions.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/04/30/inflation-is-in-the-revisions-what-stands-out-once-again-in-the-pce-price-index-sharp-up-revisions-of-prior-months-inflation/

 

            Recession

 

              Economic weakness is being exaggerated---for now.

                          https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-05-01/us-economic-weakness-is-being-exaggerated-for-now?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

           

            Tariffs

 

              Art of the deal (?).

              https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/how-not-to-bargain

 

              Tariffs won’t increase tax revenues.

              https://www.aei.org/economics/thinking-about-the-tariffs-and-the-laffer-curve/

 

              A timeline for the impact of the trade war.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/apollo-torsten-sloks-shocking-trade-impact-timeline-begins

 

            Geopolitics

 

              We face sharply binary geopolitical outcomes.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-have-sharply-binary-geopolitical-outcomes-ahead

 

     Investing

 

            Consumers sour on stocks (isn’t that bullish?)

            https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/consumers-sour-on-stocks

 

            The dollar and your portfolio.

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/05/the-u-s-dollar-vs-your-portfolio/

 

            The bear case.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/risk-assets-ignore-ominous-signs-global-economic-growth

 

            Buy everything Europe and bitcoin.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bca-buy-european-everything-and-bitcoin

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Nike (NYSE:NKE) declares $0.40/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

EOG Resources press release (NYSE:EOG): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.87 beats by $0.10.

Revenue of $5.67B (-7.4% Y/Y) misses by $190M.

 

EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) declares $0.975/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

Canadian National Railway (TSX:CNR:CA) declares CAD 0.8875/share quarterly dividend.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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The Morning Call--West coast ports brace for sharp decline in Chinese imports

 

The Morning Call

 

5/1/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/much-ado-about-nothing-nasdaq-ends-april-higher-despite-end-us-exceptionalism

 

            Wednesday in the stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/sectors-heat-map

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

 

            A pullback or just getting started.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/due-pullback-or-just-getting-started

 

            Green shoots for the greenback?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/green-shoots-greenback

 

            Gold breaking down.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-breaks-down-china-hits-sell-button-and-ctas-line-follow

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                       

  Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 241,000 versus   consensus of    224,000.

 

March personal income was up 0.5% versus estimates of +0.4%; March   personal spending was up 0.7% versus +0.5%.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/04/personal-income-increased-05-in-march.html

 

March pending home sales were up 6.1% versus projections of +1.0%.

 

The April Chicago PMI came in at 44.1 versus forecasts of 45.5.

                       

                        International

 

The final April Japanese manufacturing PMI was 48.7 versus expectations of 48.7; April consumer confidence was 31.2 versus 34.0.

 

The final April UK manufacturing PMI was 45.4 versus predictions of 44.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          The impact of frontrunning on yesterday’s GDP report.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/04/despite-negative-headline-both-long.html

 

                          Here is some good news about the economy.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2025/04/29/despite-all-moaning-and-groaning-layoffs-discharges-plunge-hires-voluntary-quits-rise-driven-by-private-sector-strength/

 

                          And some not so good news.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/30/gdp-per-capita-q1-2025-advance-estimate

 

            Overnight News

 

The US and Ukraine signed an agreement over access to the country’s natural   resources. The deal will see the US will get first claim on profits transferred into a jointly managed investment fund that’s intended in part to reimburse the US for future military assistance.

 

Saudi Arabian officials are briefing allies and industry experts to say the kingdom is unwilling to prop up the oil market with further supply cuts and can handle a prolonged period of low prices, five sources with knowledge of the talks said. This possible shift in Saudi policy could suggest a move toward producing more and expanding its market share, a major change after five years spent balancing the market through deep output as a leader of the OPEC+ group of oil producers.

 

The EU is planning to share a paper with the US next week that will set out a package of proposals to kick-start trade negotiations with the Trump administration. The paper will propose lowering trade and non-tariff barriers, boosting European investments in the US, cooperating on global challenges such as tackling China’s steel overcapacity and purchasing US goods like liquefied natural gas and technologies.

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The US is running out of debt space.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/04/30/making_a_case_that_the_us_is_running_out_of_debt_space_1106521.html

 

              Trump’s 51^st state folly.

              https://www.nationalreview.com/2025/04/trumps-51st-state-folly/

 

              Top Trump advisor struggles to soothe investor fears.

              https://www.ft.com/content/a815323b-ae2b-4586-aec2-39dec35726f0

 

            Tariffs

 

              Big price hikes undercut Trump’s claim that exporters will absorb tariffs.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-30/shein-temu-prices-show-trump-china-tariffs-hitting-us-shoppers?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              West coast ports brace for sharp decline in China imports.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/29/business/tariffs-china-ports-imports.html

 

    Investing

 

            Valuations are still not cheap.

            https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/market-intelligence/valuations-have-dropped-not-enough-be-cheap

 

            The case for more international exposure in your portfolio.

                        https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americans-are-betting-too-much-of-their-retirement-on-the-u-s-stock-market-74a937e5?st=21KRug

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            Thoughts on Trump’s first 100 days.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/political/first-100-days-method-behind-madness-court-challenges

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call--The dollar---a generational change?

 

The Morning Call

 

4/30/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-bonds-rally-soft-data-slumps-trumps-first-100-days-worst-nixon

 

            Sell in June and go away.

            https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1917211015969677603

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications declined 4.2% while purchase applications were down 4.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew more slowly than in the prior week.

 

The February Case Shiller home price index was up 4.5% versus consensus of +4.7%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/29/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-home-price-index-february-2025

 

March job openings (JOLTS report) totaled 7.19 million versus predictions of 7.48 million.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/29/jolts-report-job-openings-march-2025

 

Q1 preliminary GDP growth was -0.3% versus estimates of +0.3%; the Q1 preliminary price index was +3.7% versus +3.1%; Q1 real consumer spending was up 1.8% versus +2.2%

 

The April ADP private payrolls reported showed job increases of 62,000 versus expectations of 115,000.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/adp-reports-weakest-job-growth-july-2024-wage-growth-re-accelerates

 

The April consumer confidence index came in at 86.0 versus forecasts of 87.5.               

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/29/consumer-confidence-plunges-five-year-low-april-2025

 

 

                        International

 

The February Japanese leading economic indicators were reported at 107.9, in line; March preliminary industrial production was down 1.1% versus -0.4%; March retail sales were down 1.2% versus -0.2%; March YoY housing starts were up 39.1% versus +1.0%; March YoY construction orders were up 3.5% versus -9.0%.

 

March German retail sales were down 0.2% versus projections of -0.4%; Q1 flash GDP growth was +0.2% in line; the April unemployment rate was 6.3%, in line.

 

Q1 flash EU GDP growth was +0.4% versus consensus of +0.2%.

 

                        Other

           

                          New record trade goods deficit reflects more tariff front running.

                          https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/new-record-goods-trade-deficit-on-more-tariff-front-running?post=495090

 

                          Big problems for Dr. Copper.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/greatest-tightening-shock-market-has-ever-seen-chinese-copper-stocks-run-out-weeks

 

            Recession

 

              A timeline for recession.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/04/a-timeline-for-recession

 

              Converging forces point to recession.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/04/28/quarterly-review-outlook

 

            Inflation

 

              The Campbell’s tomato soup indicator.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/04/campbells-tomato-soup-prices-holding.html

 

            Tariffs

 

              How China steals.

              https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2025/04/how_china_steals.html

 

              Lutnick rolls out auto tariff relief.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-moves-ease-automaker-pain-tariff-relief-foreign-parts

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Canada’s Carney prepares to take on Trump.

              https://www.ft.com/content/b4d4e25e-24b3-475a-b127-5ca7ddcdc68c

 

    Investing

 

            Optimism on stocks is only skin deep.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/optimism-stocks-only-skin-deep

 

            The dollar: a generational change?

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-a-generational-change/?src=news

 

            Update on Q1 earnings dashboard.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/sp-500-earnings-dashboard-25q1-tuesday-april-29?post=495089

 

            Whales are again accumulating bitcoin.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/whales-are-accumulating-again-stanchart-expects-fresh-bitcoin-all-time-high-q2

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            Are you a mosquito magnet?

            You really are a mosquito magnet. Here’s what you can do about it.

 

 

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