The Morning Call
10/30/25
The
Market
          
    Technical
            Wednesday in the
charts.
                        Wednesday in the technical stats (again note
the weak breadth).
            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
            In Goldilocks melt
up, Goldman addresses the three bears.
            The fast money is
mostly out of gold and silver.
            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/fast-money-mostly-out-gold-and-silver
            The gold puke
pause.
            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-puke-pause
    Fundamental
       Headlines
              The
Economy
                        US
September pending
home sales were flat with August versus an anticipated rise of 1.3%.
                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/10/29/pending-home-sales-flat-september-2025
                        International
Q3 German flash
GDP growth was 0.0% versus forecasts of +0.1%; October preliminary CPI was 0.3%,
inline.
                          
Q3 EU flash GDP
growth was +0.2% versus expectations of +0.1%; the September unemployment rate
was 6.3%, in line; the October economic sentiment indicator was 96.8 versus
95.5; the October industrial sentiment indicator was -8.2 versus -10.0; the
October services sentiment indicator was 4.0 versus 3.4; the October consumer
confidence indicator was -14.2, in line.
                        Other
                          September multi-family delinquency rate
increased.
                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/fannie-and-freddie-single-family.html
                          October
regional Fed bank summaries of goods production.
                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/10/october-regional-feds-summary-of-goods.htm
                Overnight News
 The Senate votes 50-46 to block Trump’s
tariffs on Canada (this action, the second in as many days after the Senate
voted to remove Trump’s Brazil tariffs, is most likely symbolic since it likely
will not pass in the house). 
Senate Majority
Leader John Thune said Wednesday he expects to engage “pretty soon” with a
group of rank-and-file Senate Democrats about ending the 29-day-and-counting
government shutdown. If a meeting happens, it would be a rare bipartisan
gathering involving a top party leader.
The Bank of Japan
kept interest rates steady on Thursday, with its governor sending the strongest
signal yet that a rate hike was possible as soon as December depending on the
outlook for wages next year. 
Trump ordered
nuclear weapons trials in response to Russia’s recent tests of nuclear-powered
underwater drones and cruise missiles. The US’s last nuclear explosive test was
in 1992. 
                Monetary Policy
The FOMC wrapped
up its October meeting, followed by a Powell press conference. Below summarizes
most of the salient points (rate cut, end of QT) from this event. However, it
fails to convey the more hawkish tone of Powell comments. He raised serious
doubts about a December rate cut (odds have dropped substantially) and voiced
more concern than in the recent past about inflation. Markets didn’t like it
though not to the point of a major decline. Nonetheless, it raises just one
more concern about stock prices at current levels.
                  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-31
              Ed Yardini’s take.
            Tariffs
              US/China
strike ‘tactical’ trade deal.
     Investing
            Memory is the next
AI bottleneck.
            Another analyst
argues that the Santa Claus rally may not happen (but BTFD).
            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/10/29/what-spook-markets
            Is it really a
bubble?
            https://www.ft.com/content/e65579d3-f513-44f4-91e0-246fefe66e4c
            
Markets face a
defining week.
    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Altria press
release (MO): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.45 in-line.
Revenue of
$5.26B (-1.5% Y/Y) misses by $50M.
Microsoft press
release (MSFT): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $4.13 beats by
$0.47.
Revenue of
$77.67B (+18.4% Y/Y) beats by $2.28B.
What
I am reading today
            Prediction
markets are very accurate.
            https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/10/prediction-markets-are-very-accurate.html
                        Quote of the day.
            https://cafehayek.com/2025/10/quotation-of-the-day-5177.html
                        Why aren’t
smart people happier?
            https://www.theseedsofscience.pub/p/why-arent-smart-people-happier
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