Monday, July 7, 2025

Monday Morning Chartology

 

 

7/7/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

The S&P maintained its upward momentum, keeping it above all three DMAs and in uptrends across all timeframes. And it will likely continue over the short term: (1) July is traditionally a good month for Mr. Market. (2) The big, beautiful bill passed (though I have no idea why it is being interpreted as a positive). …barring another s**t bomb from the Donald, we are likely to have smooth sailing over the near term. Given valuation levels, I am not making any new investments though traders might want to participate.

 

Retail buying blows away all records.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-buying-and-participation-blow-away-all-records-h1-2025

 

Investor greed returns with a vengeance.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/investor-greed-returns-vengeance

 

 

 


 

Well, at least the bond guys seem to understand the significance of the fiscal irresponsibility contained in the big, beautiful bill. TLT couldn’t push above its 100 DMA (now resistance) and subsequently traded down and is about to challenge its 50 DMA (now support). Given that it is in downtrends across all time frames, below its 100 and 200 DMAs and facing increased inflation from the BBB, the assumption has to be that there is more downside.

 



 

GLD was flat on the week. The good news is that it (1) failed to successfully challenge its 50 DMA (now support support), (2) remains above its 100 and 200 DMAs and (3) is in uptrends across all timeframes. The inflationary implications of the BBB should keep it on an upward trajectory.

 

 

 


 

 

Although the dollar made a feeble attempt at a rally on Thursday, it remains the ugliest chart on the block. But…...

 

Dollar despised but no new low.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/dollar-despised-no-new-lows-week

 

 

 


 

 

 

            Friday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/big-bill-better-payrolls-prompt-stock-gains-dashes-rate-cut-dreams

 

            Friday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

           

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

             

              The Economy

                       

The stats last week were tilted positively while the primary indicators were balanced (one plus, one neutral, one minus). Overseas, the numbers were very upbeat.

 

That breaks the two string of negative performances, making me feel a bit better about my ‘muddle through’ scenario. There were no US inflation numbers though internationally there was one positive and one neutral. For the moment, that isn’t impacting my ‘inflation is as good as it gets’ forecast.

 

On the policy front:

 

(1) Powell hinted that he may be crawfishing on no rate cut in July [not bloody likely given the BBB],

 

(2) the big, beautiful budget bill has become a reality [the reason why lowering rates would be a mistake---in my opinion],

 

This is a reasoned response to my concern about the BBB which I think has to be considered. I am not suggesting that the author is right; but it is a factor to watch for. Clearly, it depends on whether Trump/ the GOP ability to roll back the giveaway to the dems.

 Trump 2.0 is a Wrecking Ball

 

(3) some progress is being made on the tariff front, though Trump reiterated that July 9 is still the drop dead date for making a deal [though this is probably just more of his ‘negotiating tactics’]

(4) and all was quiet on the geopolitical front; though there is always the Iranians.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/un-nuclear-inspectors-depart-tehran-iran-vows-keep-enriching

 

Bottom line. Short term, I remain in the ‘muddle through’ camp. Longer term, current fiscal policy remains a major negative, leaving the overall bottom line (i.e., larger deficits, more national debt) unchanged. Which means slower growth and higher inflation.

 

As always, I have to include the caveat that this is all dependent on Trump not turning everything on its head. So my conviction level is low on economic growth but much higher on the long term outlook on inflation.

 

That said, stocks love to climb the proverbial ‘wall of worry.’  Plus July is historically a good month for stock prices. That leaves me on the sidelines but anticipating reducing my equity exposure around mid-July or until this latest run is over whichever comes last.

 

US

 

                        International

           

                          The May Japanese leading economic indicators index was 105.3, in line.

 

                          May German industrial production rose 1.2% versus forecasts of 0%.

                       

                          May EU retail sales fell 0.7%, in line.

 

                        Other

    

                                  New home affordability declined again in May.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/07/affordability-of-us-new-homes-worsened.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Duplicity at the Fed.

              https://lawliberty.org/duplicity-at-the-fed/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The big, beautiful bill is dangerous.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/opinion/republican-bill-fed-treasury-secretary.html

 

            Tariffs

 

              The Trump tariffs impact on small businesses.

              https://www.fastcompany.com/91362007/when-trumps-tariffs-hit-these-entrepreneurs-tried-made-usa-heres-what-happened

 

 

      Investing

 

 

                The latest from BofA.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-big-beautiful-bubble-hartnett-warns-us-debt-will-exceed-50-trillion-2032

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

               

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Tuesday, July 1, 2025

The Morning Call---early

 

The Morning Call

 

7/2/25

 

I am leaving bright and early Wednesday morning for the beach.  Back on 7/7

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-start-h2-massive-short-squeeze-momo-massacre-bullion-bid-bonds-battered

 

                        Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            The strengths and weaknesses of breadth indicators.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/07/01/strength-weakness-trend-tracker

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The May jobs openings (JOLTS report) totaled 7.8 million versus estimates of 7.3 million.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/01/jolts-report-job-openings-may-2025

 

May construction spending fell 0.3% versus projections of -0.2%.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/07/construction-spending-continues.html

 

The June manufacturing PMI came in at 52.9 versus consensus of 52.0.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/01/sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-june-2025

 

The June ISM manufacturing index was 49.0 versus expectations of 48.8.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/01/ism-manufacturing-pmi-contracts-june-2025

 

The July economic optimism index was 48.6 versus forecasts of 50.1.

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/07/median-household-income-in-may-2025.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The real problem with fiscal policy.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/07/01/while_correctly_decrying_big_beautiful_spin_deficit_hawks_should_look_in_the_mirror_1119580.html

 

              Policy uncertainty spikes.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/06/policy-uncertainty-spikes

 

              And it is little wonder---though this flip flop is for the better.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/trump-flip-flops-again-with-a-temporary-pass-on-mass-deportations/

 

            Tariffs

 

              This is a positive take on the Trump tariffs.

              https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2025/07/01/we-know-how-much-cash-trumps-tariffs-have-brought-into-the-united-states-n2659713

 

              And a not so positive.

              https://www.ntu.org/publications/detail/foreign-investment-in-us-plummets-by-625-amid-trade-uncertainty

 

     Investing

 

            So far, so good.

            https://www.ft.com/content/6d247f2b-0c0c-44e6-b6cc-25b3b9197091

 

            The trap of certainty.

            https://www.safalniveshak.com/the-trap-of-certainty/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            What we know about the Celts.

            These treasures changed everything we thought we knew about the Celts | National Geographic

 

 

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The Morning Call--The canary in the big beautiful coal mine

 

The Morning Call

 

7/1/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/dollar-crashes-worst-h1-52-years-stocks-soar-best-quarter-over-2-years-despite-tariff

 

                        Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            The latest from Goldman’s flows guru.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/2025-halfway-there-goldman-flows-gurus-livin-prayer-ahead-august-angst

 

            The latest from JP Morgan’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-expect-wave-new-all-time-high-jpmorgans-trading-desk-breaks-down-bull-and-bear-cases

 

            Gold range game.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/golds-range-games-breakout-looms-dollar-cracks

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          The June Chicago PMI was reported at 40.4 versus forecasts of 43.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/06/30/chicago-pmi-falls-further-to-5-month-low

 

The June Dallas Fed manufacturing index was 12.7 versus predictions of -10.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/06/30/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-worsen-june-2025

 

                        International

 

The Q2 Japanese large manufacturers index was 13 versus consensus of 10; the Q2 large nonmanufacturers index was 34, in line; the Q2 small manufacturers index was +1 versus -1; the June consumer confidence index was 34.5 versus 33.6.

 

The June Japanese manufacturing PMI was 50.1 versus expectations of 50.4; the June Chinese manufacturing PMI was 50.4 versus 49.0; the June German manufacturing PMI was 49.0, in line; the June EU manufacturing PMI was 49.5 versus 49.4; the June UK manufacturing PMI was 47.7, in line.

 

The June EU flash CPI came in at 0.3%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update from Scott Gannis, my favorite optimist.

                          https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2025/06/big-picture-charts-modest-growth-and.html

 

Last Friday’s personal income report was not nearly as bad as it appeared on the surface.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/06/27/that-drop-in-consumer-income-in-may-was-a-false-recession-alarm/

                       

                          Two measures of consumer attitudes.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/06/30/two-measures-of-consumer-attitudes-june-2025

 

                          Recession Alert weekly leading economic indicator.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/06/30/recession-weekly-leading-economic-index

 

                          Pay close attention to consumer spending on goods.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/06/pay-close-attention-to-real-personal.html

 

            Overnight News

 

US narrows trade focus to secure deals, while officials were seeking phased deals with the most engaged countries as they race to find agreements by July 9th, according to FT.

 

Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said Japan won't do anything to sacrifice the agricultural sector in US trade talks, while Farm Minister Koizumi said he won't comment on US President Trump's posts regarding Japan's rice imports.

 

EU is to accept Trump’s universal tariff but seeks key exemptions and it wants the US to commit to lower rates on key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors and commercial aircraft, while it is pushing for quotas and exemptions to effectively lower a 25% tariff on automobiles and car parts as well as a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, according to Bloomberg.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The Fed’s ‘transitory’ mistake is affecting its outlook.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/06/30/feds-transitory-mistake-affecting-outlook

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The twin deficits---one out of two is bad.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/the-twin-deficits--one-out-of-two-is-bad?post=505906

 

              The senate outdoes the house in fiscal irresponsibility.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/senate-version-trump-tax-bill-adds-32-trillion-deficit-500bn-more-house-cbo-finds

 

              The canary in the big, beautiful coal mine.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bond-canary-big-beautiful-coal-mine

 

            Financial System

 

              Banks pass latest stress test with flying colors.

              https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/us-banks-rise-fed-stress-test-success-clears-path-payouts-2025-06-30/

 

     Investing

 

            A recipe for doubling your stock returns.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/27/business/stock-market-investing-index-funds.html

 

            Risk appetite rebounds.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-appetite-rebounds-for-global-strategies-after-tariff-tantrum/

 

            But uncertainty rules.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/weekly-market-pulse-uncertainty-rules-everything-around-me?post=506604

 

            Time to chase US stocks?

            https://sherwood.news/markets/it-might-be-time-for-the-chase-in-us-stocks/

 

            Don’t lose sight of the big picture.

            https://joefahmy.com/2025/06/29/dont-lose-sight-of-the-bigger-picture

 

            Is the bond bear market about to end?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/slr-could-it-end-bond-bear-market

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

AbbVie to acquire Capstan Therapeutics for up to $2.1B in cash

 

What I am reading today

 

            Intensifying your focus.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2025/06/best-trading-practice-intensifying.html

 

                        The changing role of men in society.

                        https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/06/reverse-lysistrata-more-on-men-cooling-on-dating-sex-and-the-role-of-societal-denigration.html

 

 

 

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