Thursday, July 31, 2025

The Morning Call---The second best solution

 

The Morning Call

 

7/31/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/dollar-jumps-2-mo-highs-stocks-dump-hawkish-powell-trumps-dovish-fed

 

                Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            The dollar rips.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/usd-rip-ripping

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 218,000 versus forecasts of 224,000.

 

June personal income rose 0.3% versus projections +0.2%; June personal spending was up 0.3% versus +0.4%.

 

                          June pending home sales declined 0.6% versus estimates of +0.3%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/30/pending-home-sales-unexpectedly-fall-june-2025

 

                                                  June core PCE was up 0.3%, in line.

 

                        International

 

June Japanese YoY housing starts fell 15.6% versus consensus of -15.8%; June YoY construction output was up 22.5% versus up 21.0%; the July consumer confidence index was 33.7 versus 35.1.

 

The June EU unemployment rate was 6.2% versus expectations of 6.4%.

 

The June German unemployment rate was 6.3% versus predictions of 6.4%; the July preliminary CPI was 2.0% versus 1.9%.

 

 

                        Other

 

                          Mixed results in yesterday’s Q2 GDP number.

                          https://talkmarkets.com/content/the-bottom-line-in-q2-gdp-front-running-payback-and-contrasting-long-leading-indicators?post=512397

 

                          The problem with the BLS employment data.

                          https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-unemployment-level-is-about-to-surpass-the-number-of-job-openings/

 

                          The latest from Ed Yardini.

                          The US Economy Is In The Cloud

 

            Overnight News

 

Trump announced a trade agreement at 6:15pmET Wed night with South Korea – South Korea will be charged a tariff of 15% (consistent w/Japan and the EU) and has pledged to provide $350B for investment in the US w/another $100B intended for energy purchases.

 

Trump once again threatened to suspend trade talks with Canada, this time over Carney’s promise to recognize Palestinian statehood.

 

BOJ left rates unchanged, as expected, but raised its inflation forecasts, spurring speculation that it could resume policy tightening later this year, although Ueda’s language in the presser cooled speculation of an imminent hike.

 

Trump is set to hold a phone call w/Mexico’s president Thurs morning as the two countries search for a trade agreement ahead of the 8/1 deadline.

 

Top officials from big US trading partners have rushed to Washington in a bid to strike last-ditch trade dela with Trump less than 24 hrs. before being hit again with the president’s highest levels of tariffs. Canada and Mexico sent delegations and were locked in intense talks with the Trump admin on Wednesday.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

The FOMC wrapped up its July meeting with slight dovish tone to its statement and the dot plot. Then Powell spoiled the party in his hawkish presser.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-1

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Recklessly ballooning US government debt.

   https://wolfstreet.com/2025/07/29/the-recklessly-ballooning-us-government-debt-spikes-by-519-billion-since-debt-ceiling-expected-to-hit-37-8-trillion-by-yearend-722-billion-in-treasury-auctions-this-week-alone/

 

 

            Inflation

 

              New home sales are declining but prices are still rising.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/07/new-home-market-cap-rises-as-number-of.html

 

            Recession

 

              Another canary.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/another-canary-las-vegas-economy-tanking-just-it-did-2008-and-2009

 

              Sysco CEO warns consumer confidence not high.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ceo-largest-us-foodservice-distributor-warns-consumer-sentiment-confidence-not-high-right

 

            Tariffs

 

              The second best solution.

              https://paulkedrosky.com/tar/

 

              Few details in any of the Trump tariff deals.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/07/30/us-equity-multiples-back-cycle-highs-not-usual-suspects

 

     Investing

 

            US equity multiples are back at cycle highs.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/07/30/us-equity-multiples-back-cycle-highs-not-usual-suspects

 

            Goldman trader worried about what is going on beneath the surface.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beneath-surface-strange-things-are-happening-top-goldman-macro-trader-worried-about-retail

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Automatic Data Processing Non-GAAP EPS of $2.26 beats by $0.03, revenue of $5.1B beats by $50M

Altria Non-GAAP EPS of $1.44 beats by $0.06, revenue of $6.1B beats by $910M

Microsoft GAAP EPS of $3.65 beats by $0.27, revenue of $76.4B beats by $2.57B

Qualcomm Non-GAAP EPS of $2.85 beats by $0.14, revenue of $10.98B beats by $630M

Mastercard Non-GAAP EPS of $4.15 beats by $0.13, revenue of $8.1B beats by $120M

 

AbbVie Non-GAAP EPS of $2.97 beats by $0.06, revenue of $15.42B beats by $390M

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

Wednesday, July 30, 2025

The Morning Call---There are no free lunches

 

The Morning Call

 

7/30/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-drop-bonds-oil-pop-china-agrees-tariff-truce-trump-reiterates-russia-threats

 

            Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Goldilocks still hanging around.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/goldilocks-us-room-right-now

 

            Nomura: hedge when you can not when you have to.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-when-you-can-not-when-you-have-nomura-reflects-what-everybody-thinking-trump-collar

 

Busting three myths.

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/busting-three-myths/

 

            On the verge of a change in trend for the dollar and gold.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/on-the-verge-monthly-highs-in-usd-monthly-lows-in-gdxj?post=512174

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 3.8% while purchase applications were down 5.7%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

                       

  The May Case Shiller home price index rose 0.4% versus consensus of    +0.6%.

     https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/29/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-home-price-index-may-2025

 

June job openings (JOLTS) totaled 7.43 million versus projections of 7.55 million.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/29/jolts-report-job-openings-june-2025

 

Q2 advanced GDP growth was 3.0% versus estimates of +2.4%; real consumer spending was up 1.4% versus up 0.9%; the PCE was +2.1% versus +2.9%.

 

The July ADP private payroll report showed jobs increased by 104,000 versus expectations of 76,000.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/employers-more-optimistic-consumers-adp-reports-big-rebound-jobs-july

 

The July consumer confidence index came in at 97.2 versus forecasts of 95.8.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/29/consumer-confidence-improves-slightly-in-july

 

                                                 

                        International

 

June German flash retail sales were up 1.0% versus predictions of +0.5%; Q2 flash GDP growth was -0.1%, in line.

 

Q2 EU flash GDP growth was +0.1% versus consensus of 0.0%; the July economic sentiment index was 95.5 versus 94.5; the July industrial sentiment index was -10.4 versus -11.0; the July services sentiment index was 4.1 versus 3.3.

 

                        Other

 

                          The shelter component of CPI is likely headed lower.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/07/repeat-home-sales-and-leading-apartment.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Pop goes the deficit.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5420761-us-deficit-spending-debt-sustainability/

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/07/29/the_fatal_conceit_of_national_debt_hawkery_1125072.html

 

              Trump considering ‘pocket recissions’.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/white-house-considers-pocket-rescissions-sidestep-congress-what-know

 

            Inflation

 

              What is driving inflation?

              https://ritholtz.com/2025/07/what-is-driving-inflation/

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trump’s trade war undermines the status of the dollar.

              https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/trumps-trade-war-undermines-the-dollars-global-reserve-status/

 

              There are no free lunches.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-grand-illusions/?src=news

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.ft.com/content/72e657cf-9552-45ac-b1dc-16a40ae8eb41

 

              There is a positive side to the tariffs.

              https://www.wsj.com/business/u-s-exporters-get-welcome-surprise-in-trump-tax-law-525ef529?mod=economy_lead_story

 

              Trump is winning the trade war, but is it really a win for the US?

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/29/business/economy/trump-tariffs-economy.html

 

              The US/EU trade deal.

              https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/07/the-eu-usa-trade-deal.html

 

              Tariffs and the Campbell tomato soup inflation indicator.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/07/campbells-tomato-soup-prices-facing.html

 

              What happens if Trump’s tariffs are ruled illegal?

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/07/what-happens-if-ieep-tariffs-are-rule-illegal

           

              US/China agree to extend trade truce.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-china-agree-extend-tariff-truce

 

     Investing

 

            The Market is looking through the tariffs.

            https://www.ft.com/content/2fdfd736-80dc-47d0-9c5e-874d3b66d3f1

 

            Corporations to buy 10% of ether.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/corporations-have-acquired-1-ether-supply-stanchart-sees-growth-10

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

Tuesday, July 29, 2025

The Morning Call--The fiscal future

 

The Morning Call

 

7/29/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/us-stocks-shrug-trade-deal-palooza-bonds-bitcoin-bullion-dumped

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Charts from Goldman show speculative frenzy.

            https://sherwood.news/markets/these-charts-from-goldman-sachs-show-how-much-the-stock-market-is-in-thrall/

 

            More from Goldman.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-dynamics-have-shifted-under-hood-goldman-flows-gurus-expect-crack-later-summer

 

            Breadth is bad and that is good, says this analyst.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/breadth-bad-and-good-0

 

            Crypto market resumes bullish trend.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/market-commentary-education/bitcoin-and-the-whole-crypto-market-resume-the-bullish-trend?post=511808

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The July Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at +0.9 versus estimates of -8.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/28/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-stabilize-july-2025

 

                        International

 

June UK consumer credit grew L1.4 billion versus expectations of +Ll.2 billion.

 

                        Other

 

                          Real US exports flatlining.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/07/us-real-exports-flatlining-despite-rising-row-gdp-depreciated-dollar

 

                          Home ownership at lowest level since 2009.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/28/home-ownership-rate-q2-2025

 

                          The shock resistant US economy (an optimist’s take).

                          https://www.ft.com/content/70305b6c-6e16-4e42-b336-35eebb9802fb

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Inflation mystification ails the Fed.

              https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2025/07/27/ben-bernanke-and-janet-yellens-inflation-mystification-ails-the-fed/

 

              Fed rates are not restrictive.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/07/27/feds-rates-not-restrictive-for-markets-financial-conditions-ultra-loose-manias-form-margin-debt-blows-out-junk-bonds-party-in-la-la-land/

 

 

              Trump is changing the Fed, even without firing Powell.

              https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/28/economy/trump-powell-federal-reserve

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The fiscal future.

              https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:VA6C2:910d107d-4b66-4724-b192-0ab67b228c74?viewer%21megaVerb=group-discover

 

            Tariffs

 

              Signing a trade deal doesn’t mean that things will get better.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-07-27/how-trump-s-tariffs-are-already-stunting-world-economic-growth?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

     Investing

 

            JP Morgan remains tactically bullish.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tactically-bullish-jpmorgan-traders-weigh-bullbear-case-after-biggest-bounce-covid

 

            Beware of the risks when investing in private equity deals.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/07/28/is-private-equity-wolf-sheeps-clothing

 

            Seven rules of stock market bubbles.

            https://www.optimisticallie.com/p/rules-of-stock-market-bubbles

 

            Five signals bubble trackers are watching.

            https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/five-signs-of-a-market-bubble-investors-are-tracking-ddbea944?st=F6QVUw&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

            Is there true value in gold or crypto?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/true-value-crypto-or-gold

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

UPS non-GAAP EPS of $1.55 misses by $0.02, revenue of $21.2B beats by $350M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The shipwreck that sparked a panic.

            How one shipwreck and a cargo of lost gold sparked a U.S. financial panic | National Geographic

 

The story of the recovery effort by treasurer hunters is told in a book entitled ‘Ship of Gold in the Deep Blue Sea’.  It is a good read.

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.