The Morning Call--Everything is crashing

 

The Morning Call

 

4/4/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/its-trainwreck-everywhere-tariffs-terrible-data-prompt-panic-across-global-markets

 

Note: yesterday’s carnage left the S&P below that 3/13 low with the next visible support at (1) the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level [~5225] and (2) the lower boundary of its short term [say again---short term] uptrend [~5160]. The only positive news is that it did so on a huge gap down open which at its worst could mean a reflexive bounce to fill the gap.

 

            Market in full blown panic.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/markets-full-blown-panic-vix-goes-vertical

 

            Broken trend lines.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/trouble-tariffs-and-broken-trendlines

 

            From Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/uncertainty-going-remain-sticky-top-goldman-trader-urges-safety-first-out-there

           

            Stocks decline morphing from chronic to acute.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/decline-stocks-morphing-chronic-acute

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The March services PMI was 54.4 versus estimates of 54.3; the March composite PMI was 53.5, in line.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/03/sp-global-services-pmi-march-2025

 

The March ISM services index was 50.8 versus expectations of 53.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/03/ism-services-pmi-march-2025

 

March nonfarm payrolls rose 228,000 versus consensus of +135,000; the March unemployment rate was 4.2% versus 4.1%.

 

                        International

 

February Japanese household spending was up 3.5% versus projections of +0.5%.

 

February German factory orders were flat with January versus forecasts of up 3.5%.

 

The March EU construction PMI came in at 44.8 versus predictions of 45.1; the March German construction PMI was 40.3 versus 43.0; the March UK construction PMI was 46.4 versus 46.0.

 

March UK YoY new car sales were up 12.4% versus estimates of down 7.0%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Thursday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-april-2nd-2025/

 

            Overnight News

 

              Everything is crashing.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everything-crashing-after-china-retaliates-34-tariffs-us-goods

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              What will central banks do in response to Trump’s tariffs?

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/how-might-central-banks-react-to-trumps-new-tariffs-07754640?mod=economy_lead_pos5

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Ken Rogoff on the dollar and government debt.

              https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/04/ken-rogoff-our-dollar-your-problem.php

 

              Decent news on an otherwise gloomy day.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/doge-impact-federal-govt-layoffs-dominate-biggest-march-job-losses-36-years

 

            Inflation

 

              Update on home affordability.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/04/new-home-affordability-crisis-enters.html

 

            Recession

 

              Recession odds just went up significantly.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/04/2-april-2025-an-event-study

 

              ISM data on verge of a warning flag.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/04/economically-weighted-ism-manufacturing.html

 

            Tariffs

 

              This changes everything.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trumps-tariffs-aim-to-create-a-new-world-economic-order-f48057ae?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

              Initial Street reactions.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/reign-tariffs-begins-all-you-need-know-about-trumps-reciprocal-trade-war

 

              China strikes back.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-strikes-back-slaps-34-tariff-us-goods-after-trumps-liberation-day

 

              Tariffs from Reagan to Trump.

              https://www.civitasinstitute.org/research/trade-protection-and-tariffs-from-reagan-to-trump

 

              The problem with romanticizing the past.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/04/03/a_return_of_manufacturing_jobs_is_more_crippling_than_bombs_1101139.html

 

              Managing expectations for a global trade war.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/managing-expectations-for-a-global-trade-war/

 

     Investing

 

            Update on valuations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/02/market-valuation-is-the-market-still-overvalued

 

            Two dangerous words to use in investing.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/04/03/the-two-most-dangerous-words-in-investing/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

 

 

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The Morning Call---Futures crash, dollar craters

 

The Morning Call

 

4/3/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-pumpndump-again-ahead-trumps-tarrific-presser-hard-data-strengthens-one-year

 

            Another MACD crossover warning.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/sp-500-chart-analysis?post=489741

           

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 219,000 versus consensus of 225,000.

 

The February trade balance was -$122.7 billion versus projections of -$123.5 billion.

 

February factory orders were up 0.6% versus forecasts of +0.5%; ex transportation, they were up 0.4% versus +0.5%.

 

                        International

 

                          February EU PPI was up 0.2% versus predictions of +0.1%.

 

The March Japanese services PMI came in at 50.0 versus estimates of 49.5; the March composite PMI was 48.9 versus 48.5; the March Chinese Caixin services PMI was 51.9 versus 51.6; the March composite PMI was 51.8 versus 51.7; the March German services PMI was 50.9 versus 50.4; the March composite PMI was 51.3 versus 50.9; the March EU services PMI was 51.0 versus 50.4; the March composite PMI was 50.9 versus 50.2; the March UK services PMI was 52.5 versus 52.2; the March composite PMI was 51.5 versus 52.0.

 

 

 

 

                        Other

 

                          March YoY heavy truck sales down 12%.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/04/heavy-truck-sales-decreased-12-yoy-in.html

 

                          Wednesday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-april-1st-2025/

 

            Overnight News

 

              Futures crash, dollar craters.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/reign-tariffs-begins-futures-crash-dollar-craters

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              No president can overcome a weak dollar.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/04/02/no_president_can_overcome_a_weak_dollar_trump_included_1101324.html

 

              Playing defense instead of offense.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/04/02/trump_is_playing_defense_when_he_should_be_playing_offense_1101382.html

 

              The system is broken.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/how-much-credit-expansion-does-it-take-to-grow-real-gdp/

 

            Tariffs

 

              Worse than expected.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-panics-much-worse-expected

 

              Trust: the ultimate price of Trump’s tariff policy.

              https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/the-exorbitant-price-of-trumps-tariffs

 

              Are farm subsidies government waste, fraud and abuse?

              https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-trade-wars-harm-farmers-taxpayers

 

              Bigger than Smoot Hawley.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/04/doug-irwin-bigger-than-smoot-hawley

 

              The beginning of a new era?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/will-today-go-down-history-beginning-new-era

 

     Investing

 

            March dividends by the numbers.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/04/dividends-by-numbers-in-march-2025-and.html

           

            The threat to the high yield credit market.

                        https://talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics/an-invisible-threat-could-bring-down-the-entire-financial-system?post=489697

 

            In praise of doing nothing.

            https://www.safalniveshak.com/dont-do-something-sit-there/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call--Valuation evaluation

 

The Morning Call

 

4/2/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-bonds-crypto-soar-isms-scream-stagflation-hard-landing-odds-surge

 

            MACD indictor approaching a Sell signal.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/the-last-time-this-happened-stocks-collapsed-30?post=489535

 

            Pensions spark Buy imbalance.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/buybacks-blacked-out-pensions-spark-largest-buy-imbalance-record-rescue-stocks-yesterday

 

            Mag 7 in bear market.

            https://www.ft.com/content/ad80f737-3261-4e11-8608-2ed3db522e55

 

            Elliott Wave analysis of Ethereum.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/market-commentary-education/ethereum-is-unfolding-a-five-wave-bearish-impulse?post=489519

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 1.6% while purchase applications were up 1.5%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

February construction spending increased 0.7% versus consensus of +0.3%.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/04/february-construction-spending-nominal.html

 

February job openings (JOLTS) totaled 7.56 million versus expectations of 7.63 million.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/01/jolts-report-job-openings-february-2025

 

The March manufacturing PMI came in at 50.2 versus estimates of 49.8.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/01/sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-march-2025

 

The March ISM manufacturing index was reported at 49.0 versus predictions of 49.5.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/01/ism-manufacturing-pmi-contracts-march-2025

 

The March ADP private payrolls report recorded a 155,000 increase in jobs versus forecasts of up 105,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/recession-narrative-bust-adp-employment-report-shows-jobs-resurgent-march

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          The weak dollar effect.

                          https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-weak-dollar-effect/?src=news

 

                          February median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/04/median-household-income-in-february-2025.html

 

                          Will the next recession be self-inflicted?

  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-01/tariffs-can-be-reversed-but-too-late-to-avoid-a-recession?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          Tuesday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-31st-2025/

 

            Tariffs

 

The argument for tariffs. The counter argument to this is that the more economically interdependent the globe is, the less likely is war.

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2025/03/on_the_importance_of_president_trump_s_liberation_day.html

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/opinion/trump-tariffs-economy.html

 

              Yet another problem created by Trump’s tariffs.

              https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/mercedes-benz-tried-hard-to-be-american-it-still-got-hit-by-tariffs-f2e1e4d1?mod=hp_lead_pos2

 

              Bracing for the fall out.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/04/bracing-for-the-fallout-of-trump-tariff-delusions.html

 

    Investing

 

            Taming your lizard brain.

            https://www.tker.co/p/barry-ritholtz-how-not-to-invest-cowboy-account

 

            Failure at the 200 DMA.

            Failure At The 200-DMA - RIA

 

            Update on the Ivy Portfolio.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/31/moving-averages-ivy-portfolio-sp500-march-2025

 

            Valuation evaluation.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/04/01/price-you-pay-valuation-evaluation

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Argentina to declassify Nazi archives.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/argentina-declassify-nazi-archives-did-hitler-escape-there-too

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.