The Morning Call---Have a great Thanksgiving

 

The Morning Call

Including four must read articles

 

11/21/25

 

 

I am taking Thanksgiving week off.  I hope you have a very happy holiday.

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mega-caps-crypto-pumped-dumped-ahead-largest-nov-opex-history

 

Quote: Including today (dating back to since 1957) there have been 8 instances where the S&P 500 gaps up more than 1% only to reverse and close in the red.

On the bright side here is S&P 500’s average performance after these 8 instances: 1 day later +233bps, 1 week later +288bps, 1 month later +472bps.

 

            Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Three record breaking streaks are over. How worried should we be?

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/three-record-breaking-streaks-are-over-how-worried-should-bulls-be/

 

            The latest from Citadel.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/week-decides-year-citadel-flows-guru-says-seasonals-kick-today

 

            The latest from Goldman.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/whats-behind-todays-brutal-selloff-goldmans-technical-checklist

 

            Crypto flush.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-flash-crashes-below-82000-ubs-says-flush-needed-turning-more-constructive

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          October existing home sales were up 1.2% versus consensus of +0.9%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/11/20/existing-home-sales-rise-1-2-to-8-month-high

 

The November Kansas City manufacturing index was 18 versus projections of 12.

 

                        International

 

October UK retail sales fell 1.7% versus predictions of +0.1%; ex fuel, they were down 1.0% versus -0.2%; November consumer confidence was -19, in line.

 

The October Japanese CPI was up 0.4% versus forecasts of -0.1%; the October trade balance was -Y231.8 billion versus -Y250.0 billion.

 

The November Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 48.8 versus expectations of 49.0; the flash services PMI was 53.1 versus 52.8; the flash composite PMI was 52.0 versus 50.6; the November German flash manufacturing PMI was 49.4 versus 50.1; the flash services PMI was 52.7 versus 53.8; the flash composite PMI was 52.1 versus 53.2; the November EU flash manufacturing PMI was 49.7 versus 50.9; the flash services PMI was 53.1 versus 52.3; the flash composite PMI was 52.4 versus 52.2; the November UK flash manufacturing PMI was 50.2 versus 49.5; the flash services PMI was 50.5 versus 52.0; the flash composite PMI was 50.5 versus 52.6.

 

                        Other

                       

                          Output is abundance is affordability.

                          https://scottsumner.substack.com/p/output-is-abundance-is-affordability

           

                          The paradox on prosperity.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-11-20/the-american-middle-class-is-shrinking-and-that-s-ok?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

                          A deep dive into September’s jobs report.

                              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/11/september-jobs-report-positive-if-stale.html

 

            Recession

 

              Update on big four recession indicators.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/11/20/the-big-four-recession-indicators-september-2025-employment

 

              The latest Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast.

              https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Ukraine and Europe skeptical of Trump peace plan.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-europe-reject-trumps-russia-peace-plan-prepare-emergency-call

 

     Investing

 

            How can we be sure of what we think that we know?

            https://investmentecosystem.com/2025/11/13/how-do-we-know/

 

            The crypto bear market.

            https://www.howardlindzon.com/p/the-crypto-bear-market-of-2025-makes-sense-to-me

 

            The dash for trash has been driven by retail option traders.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/painful-dash-trash-driven-speculative-retail-options-traders-socgen

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Nike (NKE) declared $0.41/share quarterly dividend, 2.5% increase from prior dividend of $0.40.

 

Home Depot (HD) declared $2.30/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Cultural confidence.

            https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/11/20/cultural_confidence_the_missing_ingredient_of_western_prosperity_1148493.html

 

            What is wrong with how the economics curriculum is being taught?

            https://jamesgmartin.center/2025/11/what-is-wrong-with-economics-education/

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---There is no such thing as a 'K' shaped economy

 

The Morning Call

Including five must read articles

 

11/20/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fractured-fed-feeds-hawkish-flows-bitcoin-bullion-big-tech-pumpndump

 

            Wednesday in the technical stats. (note the continuing breadth problem)

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            What’s behind the recent selloff?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/three-reasons-why-everything-has-been-selling-once

 

            The latest from Goldman.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/will-rally-stick-heres-what-goldmans-delta-one-desk-watching

 

Tokyo bond quake. (note: a reader pointed out that I had omitted a key word [yield] in a post yesterday regarding the Japanese bond. My apologies)

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/tokyo-bondquake-bond-volatility-screams-isnt-contained

 

            Dollar breakout.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/dollar-breakout-bears-trapped-dxy-closes-above-200-day

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

September nonfarm payrolls grew 119,000 versus forecasts of 50,000; the September unemployment rate was 4.4% versus 4.3%; September average hourly earnings were +0.2%, in line.

 

The November Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at -1.7 versus predictions of -1.0.

 

                        International

 

September EU YoY construction output fell 0.3% versus estimates of +1,7%.

 

October German PPI came in at +0.1% versus expectations of +0.2%.

 

The November UK industrial trends orders index was -37 versus forecasts of -30.

 

                        Other

 

                          There is no such thing as a ‘K’ shaped economy.

                          https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/11/19/theres_no_such_thing_as_a_k-shaped_economy_1147973.html

 

            Overnight News

 

Canada and the US still have a chance to reach an agreement to reduce tariffs despite last month’s diplomatic blowup, Trump’s envoy in Ottawa said.

 

BofA Total Card Spending (w/e 15th Nov) +1.5% (prev. +4.2%, Oct avg. +2.4%); notes that "as we approach the holiday seasons, spending per household on holiday items is tracking significantly ahead of 2023 and 2024 levels".

 

            Monetary Policy

 

The Fed released the minutes of its October FOMC meeting---showing a divided Fed.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-32

 

              The argument for a December rate cut.

               https://assets.realclear.com/files/2025/11/2804_sharplydivided_fed.pdf

 

              US repo rates still high as liquidity tightens.

              https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/what-fed-cut-us-repo-rates-still-high-liquidity-tightens-into-year-end-2025-11-19/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Update on the social security fund: balance, income, outgo, deficit.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/11/18/social-security-fiscal-year-2025-trust-fund-balance-income-outgo-deficit-and-interest-rates/

 

            Inflation

 

              More on home affordability.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/11/rejoinder-to-comments-on-house-price-affordability

 

            Recession

 

              The employment stats that help point to recession.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/11/19/payroll-playbook-gauge-recession-risk

           

            Geopolitics

 

              US pressuring Ukraine to end war.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-feels-its-being-heard-trump-advancing-secret-28-point-plan-end-ukraine-war

           

     Investing

 

            Why the Fed’s December rate cut decision isn’t the Market’s biggest worry.

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-fed-has-less-sway-over-the-stock-market-than-investors-think-c8f6d5ad?st=F6CyeN

 

            A decision a day is not good for your portfolio’s health.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/11/18/a-decision-a-day/

 

            Bear markets are educational.

            https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/why-we-could-use-a-good-long-bear-market-73997cb7?st=zBBYpe

 

            Outlook for S&P dividends in November.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-in.html

 

            Bearish on bitcoin.

https://talkmarkets.com/content/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin-a-completed-elliott-wave-pattern-a-possible-bear-market-and-a-bigger-question-about-its-long-term-viability?post=538353

 

US government to buy ten nuclear reactors.  In addition to the stocks mentioned, there is a nuclear ETF: NUKZ.  (this is not a recommendation to buy)

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/national-emergency-us-govt-buy-10-large-new-nuclear-reactors

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Ten things we can learn from Warren Buffett that have nothing to do with money.

            https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/10-things-we-can-learn-warren-buffett-that-have-nothing-do-with-money

 

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---The math of expected AI earnings

 

The Morning Call

Including six must read articles

 

11/19/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-bullion-bonds-bid-jobs-data-sparks-rise-rate-cut-odds

 

                Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The surge in fear.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/surge-fear

 

            Jefferies traders see near term gains.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/i-think-we-rally-14-reasons-why-jefferies-traders-see-near-term-gains

 

            Stocks getting oversold.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/stuck-in-a-downtrend-but-getting-oversold?post=538326

 

            Global selloff is about risk reduction.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-stock-selloff-about-risk-reduction-so-far

 

            Gold holds $4,000 again.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/golds-4k-line-holds-again

 

            Bitcoin ETFs see major outflows.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/etfs/bitcoin-etfs-see-254m-in-outflows-as-market-pullback-intensifies?post=538323

 

The Japanese long bond is surging to the upside. Historically, that is good for gold and crypto.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/japan-30y-breakout-moves-everything-ai-crypto-gold-even-nvda

 

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 5.2% while purchase applications were down 2.3%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales were up 6.1% versus +5.9% in the prior week.

 

The August trade balance was -$59.6 billion versus expectations of -$63.0 billion.

 

August factory orders rose 1.4%, in line.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/11/august-factory-orders-rebounded-from.html

 

The November housing index came in at 38 versus consensus of 37.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/11/18/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-november-2025

 

                        International

 

September Japanese machine tool orders were up 4.2% versus projections of +0.5%.

 

October UK CPI was up 0.4% versus estimates of +0.5%; core CPI was +0.3% versus +0.2%; October EU CPI was +0.2%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          A breakdown of construction spending.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2025/11/17/construction-spending-on-data-centers-factories-powerplants-and-office-buildings-boom-at-one-end-bust-at-the-other-end/

 

 

            Overnight News

 

The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, report US and Russian officials.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Signs of a major rethink about the size of the Fed’s balance sheet.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/11/17/another-sign-a-major-rethink-of-the-size-of-the-feds-balance-sheet-is-gaining-momentum/

 

              The question is, is the above good economic policy?

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-11-18/fed-latest-central-bank-gets-voodoo-chants-on-balance-sheet?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

               Or will it actually happen?

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics/a-tsunami-of-liquidity-is-coming-in-2026?post=538322

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The prescription for the next banking crisis.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/business/fed-bowman-bank-oversight.html

 

            Inflation

 

              Reforming healthcare would be a major step in improving ‘affordability’.

              https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/newt-gingrich-simplest-way-make-american-life-affordable-again

 

              Affordability mythology.

              https://tomknighton.substack.com/p/affordability-mythology

 

              A look at housing affordability.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/11/grampa-simpson-on-whining-whiners-about-house-affordability

 

            Recession

 

This is a tad hyperbolic, but the point is still there: increasing foreclosures and auto repossessions.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/was-major-red-flag-2008-and-now-it-happening-again

 

            Tariffs

 

              The downside to Trump’s tariff policies.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-this-is-not-the-economic-paper-youre-looking-for/?src=news

 

     Investing

 

            Investors waking to affordability and inflation.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/investors-are-waking-other-ai-affordability-inflation

 

            Another word of caution.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/opinion/economy-ai-jobs-stocks.html

 

            Things are not as bad as many fear.

            The AI-Led Pullback: Recalibrating The Odds Of Three Scenarios

 

            A snapshot of expected future S&P earnings.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/11/fall-2025-snapshot-of-expected-future-s.html

 

            The math of expected AI earnings.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/simple-macro-ai-rithmetic-doesnt-add-goldman

 

            Gold under pressure.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-under-pressure-from-hawkish-fed-signals-and-strong-dollar?post=538232

 

                        Results of the latest Fund Manager Survey.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fund-manager-survey-most-see-ai-bubble-are-done-massive-capex-spending-and-love-ems-2026

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

BlackRock (BLK) declares $5.21/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Another reason why our education system needs reform.

            https://www.wsj.com/opinion/ford-motor-ceo-jim-farley-mechanic-shortage-autos-skilled-workers-334ae52d?mod=opinion_lead_pos3

 

 

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