Thursday, October 30, 2025

The Morning Call---Powell disapoints; China deal not exactly 'amazing'.

 

The Morning Call

 

10/30/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-and-bitcoin-battered-after-powell-trapdoors-markets-says-december-cut-not-set

 

                        Wednesday in the technical stats (again note the weak breadth).

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            In Goldilocks melt up, Goldman addresses the three bears.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldilocks-melt-equities-will-continue-goldman-traders-address-three-bears

 

            The fast money is mostly out of gold and silver.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/fast-money-mostly-out-gold-and-silver

 

            The gold puke pause.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-puke-pause

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

September pending home sales were flat with August versus an anticipated rise of 1.3%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/10/29/pending-home-sales-flat-september-2025

 

                        International

 

Q3 German flash GDP growth was 0.0% versus forecasts of +0.1%; October preliminary CPI was 0.3%, inline.

                          

Q3 EU flash GDP growth was +0.2% versus expectations of +0.1%; the September unemployment rate was 6.3%, in line; the October economic sentiment indicator was 96.8 versus 95.5; the October industrial sentiment indicator was -8.2 versus -10.0; the October services sentiment indicator was 4.0 versus 3.4; the October consumer confidence indicator was -14.2, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          September multi-family delinquency rate increased.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/fannie-and-freddie-single-family.html

 

                          October regional Fed bank summaries of goods production.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/10/october-regional-feds-summary-of-goods.htm

 

                Overnight News

 

 The Senate votes 50-46 to block Trump’s tariffs on Canada (this action, the second in as many days after the Senate voted to remove Trump’s Brazil tariffs, is most likely symbolic since it likely will not pass in the house).

 

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Wednesday he expects to engage “pretty soon” with a group of rank-and-file Senate Democrats about ending the 29-day-and-counting government shutdown. If a meeting happens, it would be a rare bipartisan gathering involving a top party leader.

 

The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady on Thursday, with its governor sending the strongest signal yet that a rate hike was possible as soon as December depending on the outlook for wages next year. 

 

Trump ordered nuclear weapons trials in response to Russia’s recent tests of nuclear-powered underwater drones and cruise missiles. The US’s last nuclear explosive test was in 1992. 

 

                Monetary Policy

 

The FOMC wrapped up its October meeting, followed by a Powell press conference. Below summarizes most of the salient points (rate cut, end of QT) from this event. However, it fails to convey the more hawkish tone of Powell comments. He raised serious doubts about a December rate cut (odds have dropped substantially) and voiced more concern than in the recent past about inflation. Markets didn’t like it though not to the point of a major decline. Nonetheless, it raises just one more concern about stock prices at current levels.

                  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-31

 

              Ed Yardini’s take.

              Don't Feed The Animal Spirits

 

            Tariffs

 

              US/China strike ‘tactical’ trade deal.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-hails-amazing-xi-meeting-trade-concessions-us-soybean-farmers-win-china-eases-rare

 

     Investing

 

            Memory is the next AI bottleneck.

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/memory-is-the-next-ai-bottleneckand-the-next-profit-opportunity/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP828&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

            Another analyst argues that the Santa Claus rally may not happen (but BTFD).

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/10/29/what-spook-markets

 

            Is it really a bubble?

            https://www.ft.com/content/e65579d3-f513-44f4-91e0-246fefe66e4c

           

Markets face a defining week.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-face-defining-week-risk-packed-days-loom-goldilocks-toughest-test

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Altria press release (MO): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.45 in-line.

Revenue of $5.26B (-1.5% Y/Y) misses by $50M.

 

Microsoft press release (MSFT): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $4.13 beats by $0.47.

Revenue of $77.67B (+18.4% Y/Y) beats by $2.28B.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Prediction markets are very accurate.

            https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/10/prediction-markets-are-very-accurate.html

 

                        Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2025/10/quotation-of-the-day-5177.html

 

                        Why aren’t smart people happier?

            https://www.theseedsofscience.pub/p/why-arent-smart-people-happier

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

Wednesday, October 29, 2025

The Morning Call---Technical uncertainty

 

The Morning Call

 

10/29/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jensen-japan-jobs-jawboning-china-lift-big-tech-bitcoin-ahead-fed

 

Market squeeze slingshot triggered. (I don’t know how to square this with rollover in breadth.)

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/spot-vol-marketwide-gamma-slingshot-launched-dealers-chase-upside

 

                What Goldman in buying.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/these-are-goldmans-favorite-us-trades-year-end

 

                The latest from JP Morgan’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cutting-rates-all-time-highs-jpmorgan-delta-1-desk-says-stay-bullish

 

                Counterpoints: Palpable AI fatigue.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/amid-ai-headline-bonanza-goldman-top-tech-trader-warns-palpable-fatigue-neverending-stream

 

            And: Is the Santa Claus rally already over?

            Reality Check

 

                Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/ranking

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            I am not sure what to make of this, but it is a very interesting correlation.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/m2-money-supply-correlation-to-the-nasdaq-in-2000-vs-2025-signals-market-top?post=531141

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 7.1% while purchase applications were up 5.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales were up 5.2% versus up 5% in the prior week.

 

The August Case Shiller home price index came in at -0.6% versus estimates of -0.1%.

https://talkmarkets.com/content/repeat-home-sales-show-continued-deflation-case-shiller-vs-stabilization-fhfa?post=531139

 

The October consumer confidence index was 94.6 versus projections of 93.0.

 

The October Richmond Fed manufacturing index was -4 versus forecasts of -10.

 

                        International

 

The October Japanese consumer confidence index was 35.8 versus consensus of 35.5.

 

                        Other

 

                          The latest betting odds on key economic indicators.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-expectations-betting-markets-28-october-2025/

 

            Overnight News

 

Trump said he expects to lower fentanyl-linked tariffs on China as Beijing confirmed a high-stakes meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and the American leader. Trump said he might discuss Nvidia’s advanced AI chips with China soon.

 

  China's COFCO purchased three cargoes totaling 180k tons of US soybeans ahead of Trump-Xi meeting, according to sources cited by Reuters.

 

  Trump announces trade breakthrough with South Korea on Asia trip.

 

  Trump said he threatened India and Pakistan with 250% tariffs to help spur the   resolution of their conflict earlier this year.

 

  Trump said they have secured commitments of over $18tln in new investments and that probably USD 21tln–22tln of investment is coming into the US by the end of the second term.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Quantitative tightening will likely end soon.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-28/fed-6-trillion-balance-sheet-is-about-right?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              The Fed should pause in cutting rates.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-28/federal-reserve-should-pause-in-cutting-interest-rates?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Recession

 

              Recession probability falls.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/10/us-recession-probability-falls-after.html

 

            The Financial System

 

              How bad is the cockroach problem?

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/opinion/financial-market-credit-loans.html

 

            Tariffs

 

              US/China reach ‘preliminary’ trade deal.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-roll-back-some-china-tariffs-if-beijing-cracks-down-export-fentanyl-precursor-chemicals

 

                          But much remains unresolved.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/trumps-big-china-deal-looks-more-like-an-uneasy-truce/

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Russia in crisis.

              https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/10/russia-in-crisis.php

 

     Investing

 

            The case for a ‘good enough’ portfolio.

            https://reason.com/2025/10/25/how-to-ruin-a-shutdown/

 

            The latest from John Hussman.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/10/28/unsustainable-equilibrium

           

            France proposes national bitcoin reserve.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/france-proposes-national-bitcoin-reserve-wants-buy-2-bitcoin-supply

                       

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Automatic Data Processing press release (NASDAQ:ADP): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.49 beats by $0.05.

Revenue of $5.18B (+7.2% Y/Y) beats by $50M.

 

T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ:TROW) declared $1.27/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Wednesday morning humor.

            9 Historical Objects Trump Destroyed In The East Wing | Babylon Bee

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2025/10/quotation-of-the-day-5176.html

 

            The amassing of emergency powers.

            https://reason.com/2025/10/25/how-to-ruin-a-shutdown/

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

The Morning Call--When is the Minsky Moment?

 

The Morning Call

 

10/28/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-tests-4000-big-tech-bitcoin-rally-china-deal-hope

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-tech-traders-brace-huge-week

 

            Stocks poised for a slingshot higher.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sp-less-1-away-gamma-slingshot-higher

 

            Gold craters as retail investors pull money from commodity ETFs.

            https://sherwood.news/markets/gold-craters-as-retail-traders-pull-money-from-commodity-etfs/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

New ADP private payrolls report showed last week job increases of 24,100.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/new-adp-employment-report-signals-rebound-labor-market

 

                          The October Dallas Fed manufacturing index was -5 versus forecasts of -2.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/10/27/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-worsen-october-2025

 

                        International

 

The November German consumer confidence index was -24.1 versus expectations of -23.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          Interpolating the trend in jobless claims.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/10/tabulated-state-initial-and-continuing.html

 

            Overnight News

 

Japan revealed potential projects for its $550 billion US investment fund, including ventures by SoftBank, Toshiba, and Westinghouse in AI, energy and critical minerals. The US will decide which projects will make the cut.

 

The nation’s largest federal workers’ union called for Congress to end the shutdown, now in its fourth week, putting new pressure on Senate Democrats who have repeatedly blocked a Republican measure that would reopen the government.

 

The Federal Reserve is expected to end a 3 year phase of quantitative tightening this week, easing pressures on banks amid concerns that funding is getting too tight in money markets:

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Trampling on dollarization and the Federal Reserve.

              https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2025/10/26/wall-street-and-china-trample-on-dollarization-and-the-federal-reserve/

 

              ‘We could have stopped sooner’ isn’t good enough.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/10/27/jerome_powells_we_could_have_stopped_sooner_isnt_good_enough_1143246.html

 

              The case for ending QT.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/business/federal-reserve-balance-sheet-tightening.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Debt cycles.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/10/27/eastern-style-debt-cycles

 

            Inflation

 

              The K shaped CPI report.

              https://www.briefing.com/the-big-picture

           

              Food inflation.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/10/24/food-inflation-the-price-spikes-of-beef-coffee-eggs-and-dairy/

 

              The range of acceptable collateral is shrinking.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-cio-we-return-law-jungle-range-accepted-collateral-collapsing

 

            The Financial System

 

              Private loan credit ratings may be inflated.

              https://www.ft.com/content/9d1f4e49-5edc-4815-9efb-d4ef41756d72

 

              The danger in narrowing credit spreads.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-27/ai-bubble-the-real-danger-to-markets-is-tight-credit-spreads?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              The coming AI debt deluge.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/coming-ai-debt-deluge

 

            Tariffs

 

              The sleeper issue in Trump’s trade war.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/25/business/trump-tariffs-southeast-asia-transshipment.html

 

     Investing

 

            How to dodge ‘dud’ disruptors (ignore the sales routine).

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/how-to-dodge-dud-disruptors-a-5-point-checklist/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP826&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

            The bond market remains on track for higher prices (lower yields).

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-bond-market-remains-on-track-for-strong-bull-run-in-2025/

 

            When is the Minsky Moment?

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/weekly-market-pulse-wanna-bet?post=530790

 

            The most dangerous era in history.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/most-dangerous-era-history

 

            The bull case for gold.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-pulls-back-as-us-china-trade-optimism-and-softer-inflation-weigh-on-safe-haven-demand?post=530686

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Sherwin Williams press release (NYSE:SHW): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.59 beats by $0.15.

Revenue of $6.36B (+3.2% Y/Y) beats by $160M.

 

UPS press release (NYSE:UPS): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.74 beats by $0.44.

Revenue of $21.4B (-3.6% Y/Y) beats by $560M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Ten questions to answer before you die.

            https://hellomortal.substack.com/p/10-questions-to-answer-before-you?ref=newsletter.weeklyfilet.com

 

            Ten things Warren Buffett does differently.

            https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/10/27/ten_things_that_warren_buffet_does_differently_1142994.html

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.